World Cup 2026 β Predictions vs Results
Master Summary Table
Completed Matches β 48 reviewed (24 MD1 + 24 MD2 all groups)
MD1 (Jun 11-17) β 24 matches
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEX vs RSA | MEX win | MEX ~fav | 2-0 | β MEX | β | β | ~rev |
| KOR vs CZE | KOR win | KOR ~fav | 2-1 | β KOR | β | β | ~rev |
| CAN vs BiH | CAN 1-0 (35%) | CAN ~50% | 1-1 | Draw | β (#3) | β Both mechanisms | ~73% |
| USA vs PAR | USA 2-1 (30%) | USA ~70% | 4-1 | β USA | β (#4) | β Balogun (#2) | ~75% |
| QAT vs SUI | SUI 2-0 (35%) | SUI ~70% | 1-1 | Draw | β | β 0/2 | ~56% |
| HAI vs SCO | SCO 2-0 (30%) | SCO ~78% | 0-1 | β SCO | β | β McGinn (#3) | ~78% |
| BRA vs MAR | BRA 2-1 (28%) | ~45% | 1-1 | Draw | β (#2) | β β Vini #1 + Saibari #3 | ~82% |
| AUS vs TUR | TUR 2-0 (30%) | TUR ~83% | 2-0 | β AUS! | β | β 0/6 | ~45% |
| GER vs CUR | GER 4-0 (28%) | GER ~94% | 7-1 | β GER | β | β β Havertz #1 (brace) + Musiala #2 | ~72% |
| NED vs JPN | NED 2-1 (18%) | NED ~46% | 2-2 | Draw | β οΈ (draw #2) | β but Van Dijk #5 + Kubo #2 assist | ~79% |
| CIV vs ECU | 1-1 Draw (18%) | ECU 35%, CIV 35% | 1-0 | β οΈ CIV | β (#3) | β β Amad #1 (sub!) | ~78% |
| SWE vs TUN | SWE 2-1 (18%) | SWE ~60% | 5-1 | β SWE | β (margin) | β β GyΓΆkeres #1 + Isak #2 | ~72% |
| ESP vs CPV | ESP 3-0 (25%) | ESP ~90% | 0-0 | Draw! | β | β Yamal benched | ~30% (biggest MD1 miss) |
| BEL vs EGY | BEL 2-0 (20%) | BEL ~62% | 1-1 | Draw | β (#3) | β οΈ Salah assisted, Lukaku forced OG | ~65% |
| KSA vs URU | URU 1-0 (rev 49%) | URU 49% | 1-1 | Draw | β (#2) | β οΈ Al-Amri (CB!) scored | ~70% |
| IRN vs NZL | IRN 1-0 (rev 53%) | IRN 53% | 2-2 | Draw | β οΈ (draw #1-2) | β β Just #2 + Mohebi #3 | ~75% |
| FRA vs SEN | FRA 2-1 (~17%) | FRA ~56% / D ~25% | 3-1 | β FRA | β οΈ (3-1 ~8%) | β β MbappΓ© #1 (brace!) | ~75% |
| IRA vs NOR | NOR 2-0 (~18%) | NOR ~59% / D ~25% | 4-1 | β NOR | β (margin) | β β Haaland #1 (brace!) + Hussein #1 | ~78% |
| ARG vs ALG | ARG 2-0 (~21%) | ARG ~62% / D ~24% | 3-0 | β ARG | β οΈ (3-0 ~8%) | β β β Messi #1 (HAT-TRICK!) | ~80% |
| AUT vs JOR | AUT 2-0 (~15%) | AUT ~58% / D ~27% | 3-1 | β AUT | β (margin) | β ArnautoviΔ #1 (pen!) | ~72% |
| POR vs DRC | POR 2-0 (~19%) | POR ~69% / D ~21% | 1-1 | β Draw! | β οΈ (1-1 top-4) | β οΈ Ronaldo β / β Wissa (#3-4) | ~50% |
| GHA vs PAN | 1-1 Draw (~15%) | GHA ~34% / D ~30% / PAN ~36% | 1-0 GHA | β οΈ (coin-flip) | β β 1-0 in all 3 top-3 | β οΈ Semenyo via ASSIST | ~78% |
| ENG vs CRO | ENG 2-1 (~17%) | ENG ~55% / D ~26% | 4-2 | β ENG | β (margin) | β β Kane #1 (brace!) + Bellingham | ~68% |
| UZB vs COL | β NO PRE-MATCH | β | 1-3 COL | β blind | β blind | β blind | N/A |
MD2 Groups A-H (Jun 18-21) β 16 matches
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEX vs KOR | MEX ~46% / D ~30% | MEX 1-0 modal | 1-0 | β MEX | β β (1-0 modal!) | β Romo | ~78% |
| CZE vs RSA | 1-1 Draw (~15%) | CZE ~39% / D ~33% | 1-1 | β DRAW HIT | β β (1-1 modal!) | β Schick / β SadΓlek (rotated CM) | ~80% |
| CAN vs QAT | CAN ~48% | CAN 2-0/2-1 modal | 6-0 | β CAN | β (blowout) | β Larin + David | ~58% |
| SUI vs BiH | SUI win | SUI 2-0 modal | 4-1 | β SUI | β (margin) | β Amdouni | ~62% |
| BRA vs HAI | BRA ~72% | BRA 3-0 modal | 3-0 | β BRA | β (3-0 modal!) | β β Cunha #1 (brace!) + Vini Jr | ~88% |
| SCO vs MAR | SCO win? | SCO ~fav | 0-1 | β MAR! | β | β Saibari #1 (2' fastest WC goal!) | ~82% |
| USA vs AUS | USA ~55% | USA 2-1 modal | 2-0 | β USA | β (2-0 in range) | β οΈ Burgess OG + Freeman | ~75% |
| TUR vs PAR | TUR win | TUR ~fav | 0-1 | β PAR! (upset) | β | β Galarza #1 (2'!) | ~55% |
| GER vs CIV | GER ~64% | GER 2-1 modal | 2-1 | β GER | β β (2-1 modal!) | β Undav #1 (brace, 68'/90+4') | ~82% |
| ECU vs CUR | ECU ~fav | ECU 2-0 modal | 0-0 | β DRAW! | β | β (Room 15 saves WC record) | ~45% (biggest upset) |
| NED vs SWE | NED ~fav | NED 2-1 modal | 5-1 | β NED | β (margin way off) | β β Brobbey + Gakpo (both braces!) | ~55% |
| TUN vs JPN | JPN ~fav | JPN 2-0 modal | 0-4 | β JPN | β (margin) | β Ueda #1 (brace!) + Kamada #2 | ~55% |
| BEL vs IRN | BEL ~61% | BEL 2-0/1-1 co-modal | 0-0 | β οΈ DRAW (#2) | β (1-1 was co-modal, not 0-0) | β Lukaku #1 (0G, subbed) / Beiranvand MOTM | ~75% |
| NZL vs EGY | EGY ~57% | EGY 1-0/2-0 co-modal | 1-3 | β EGY | β (margin) | β οΈ Marmoush #1 β / β Salah (#2, 1G+1A) | ~72% |
| ESP vs KSA | ESP ~85% | ESP 3-0 modal (Finding 22) | 4-0 | β ESP | β (blowout band!) | β Yamal #1 (first WC goal!) + Oyarzabal #2 | ~85% |
| URU vs CPV | URU ~62% | URU 1-0 modal | 2-2 | β οΈ DRAW (#2, ~26%) | β | β β Maxi AraΓΊjo #1 (1G+1A!) / CPV first-ever WC goals | ~80% |
MD2 Groups I-J (Jun 22) β 4 matches
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARG vs AUT | ARG 2-0 (modal) | ARG ~68% / D ~23% | 2-0 | β ARG | β β (2-0 modal!) | β β β Messi #1 (brace! 18 WC goals, all-time top scorer) | ~92% A (RAPID) |
| FRA vs IRA | FRA 2-0 (modal) | FRA ~72% / D ~21% | 3-0 | β FRA | β οΈ (+1G margin) | β β MbappΓ© #1 (brace! tied Klose 16) | ~80% B |
| NOR vs SEN | NOR 2-1 (modal) | NOR ~60% / D ~24% | 3-2 | β NOR | β οΈ (+1G each side) | β β Haaland #1 (brace! 12-game streak) | ~85% B |
| ALG vs JOR | ALG 2-1 (modal) | ALG ~59% / D ~26% | 2-1 | β ALG | β β (2-1 modal!) | β οΈ Mahrez #1 (assist only) / β Gouiri alt (winner) | ~88% A |
MD2 Groups K-L (Jun 23) β 4 matches β‘ TASK-99 independent resolution
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR vs UZB | POR 2-0 (modal) | POR ~75% / D ~19% | 5-0 | β POR | β (blowout, g4 F22 right) | β β Ronaldo #1 (brace! FIRST to score at 6 WCs) | ~80% B |
| ENG vs GHA | ENG 2-0 (modal) | ENG ~65% / D ~26% | 0-0 | β οΈ DRAW (#2) | β (0-0 not modal) | β Kane #1 (0G, missed 86' sitter) | ~45% F (BIG MISS) |
| CRO vs PAN | CRO 2-0/1-0 (modal) | CRO ~60% (unan.) / D ~26% | 1-0 | β CRO | β (1-0 modal for mm3/g4!) | β Musa #1 (subbed HT) / β Budimir sub (F19) | ~68% C |
| COL vs DRC | COL 1-0 (modal) | COL ~59% / D ~29% | 1-0 | β COL | β β (1-0 modal!) | β DΓaz #1 (0G, 2 disallowed) / β MuΓ±oz alt | ~82% B |
Cumulative Accuracy (72 matches, group stage complete)
| Component | Hit Rate | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Winner prediction (incl. draw in top-3) | ~48/72 (67%) | π’ Good |
| Winner prediction (strict modal only) | ~36/72 (50%) | π‘ Moderate |
| Exact scoreline (top 3) | ~25/72 (35%) | π‘ Stable |
| Who Scores β₯1 hit | ~34/50 (68%) | π’ Good |
| Who Scores #1 hit | ~22/50 (44%) | π‘ Sub risk + upsets |
| Referee red cards | 100% | π’ Perfect |
| Yellow card count | ~50% range hit | π‘ Over-predicts |
| Ensemble calibration avg | ~70% (42 rubric-scored) | π’ Good |
Draws: 19 of 72 group-stage matches ended in draws (26%) β the draw rate declined through the tournament (MD1 33% β MD2 21% β MD3 17%). Pipeline now correctly prices draw band 25-33% for low-block matchups.
The Draw Epidemic (Finding 1, amplified) β 16 draws in 47 matches (34%)
MD1 draws (8): CAN 1-1 BiH Β· QAT 1-1 SUI Β· BRA 1-1 MAR Β· NED 2-2 JPN Β· ESP 0-0 CPV Β· BEL 1-1 EGY Β· KSA 1-1 URU Β· IRN 2-2 NZL
MD2 draws (8): CZE 1-1 RSA Β· ECU 0-0 CUR Β· BEL 0-0 IRN Β· URU 2-2 CPV Β· POR 1-1 DRC (MD1 carryover) Β· ENG 0-0 GHA (K-L)
Finding 13 (sterile-domination) β 3 consecutive validations (POR-DRC, ESP-CPV-style, BEL-IRN): Tier 1 favorite + low block underdog + hot GK = draw. This is now structural, not noise. Draw band should be 25-30% baseline for these matchups.
Finding 22 blowout EXCLUSION β validated twice (ECU-CUR 0-0, URU-CPV 2-2): when underdog plays deep 4-5-1 + veteran GK, favorite can't blow them out even with 1.92 xG. The blowout exclusion works.
Yellow Card Calibration Issue (NEW β MD2 finding)
Range hit rate: 11/20 (55%). Avg error: 1.4 yellows. Agents over-predict:
- Predicted avg: ~3.0-3.2 (20-25% tournament discount from ~4.0 career avg)
- Actual avg: 2.4 (1.9 excluding outliers)
- Fix needed: increase tournament discount to 35-40%, or use referee's actual WC tournament rate when available
Calibration Findings Summary (22 rules in doc-1)
Key findings validated/extended in MD2:
- Draws underpriced β 36% draw rate, now calibrated 25-33% for low-block matchups
- Blowout underestimate (Finding 22) β systematic (GER 7-1, SWE 5-1, NOR 4-1, ESP 4-0, CAN 6-0). When quality gap + elite finisher β 15-20% on 4+ margin. But has LIMIT: deep 4-5-1 + veteran GK excludes blowout (ECU-CUR, URU-CPV)
- Tournament referee leniency β 20-25% discount confirmed 8+ times. But still over-predicts yellows (actual 2.4 vs predicted 3.0)
- Lineup news invalidates the model β Yamal benched (MD1), Lukaku subbed, Marmoush subbed 76'
- Finding 13 (sterile-domination) β β 3 consecutive validations. Tier 1 + low block + hot GK = draw
- Low-block + hot GK (Finding 6) β 5+ validations (Vozinha, Beach, Shobeir, Al-Owais, Beiranvand)
- Tournament-team escalation β β ESP/GER/BRA/ARG/FRA/ENG/POR/JPN escalate game-to-game (+3-5pts MD2+). Validated: ESP 4-0, GER 2-1, BRA 3-0
- Tournament Energy Management (Finding 12) β context-dependent. Defending champions REDUCE discount. Manager personality > tier
- Sub-scorer rule β continues (TrΓ©zΓ©guet 82', Undav, Amad, Barcola, Mbaye). Fresh legs vs tiring defense
- Finding 16 age-decline extends to GKs β Muslera (39yo) error cost URU vs CPV
- NOT tournament teams β BEL (0 goals in 2 matches), URU (wasteful, Bielsa leaving), TUR (5 root causes, crisis)
- Generational milestone rule (Finding 12 hard rule) β β Messi (18, all-time WC top scorer), MbappΓ© (16, tied Klose), Haaland (12-game streak). Milestone-chasing generational players = reliable #1 scorer picks. 3x validated
- Finding 17 resolves via HT subs β β sterile-domination can be unlocked mid-match by aggressive substitutions (ALG-JOR: 0.65 xG HT β 1.25 xG 2H after Bentaleb+Benbouali). Managerial intervention matters
- Set-piece as Finding 17 equalizer β β when open play is sterile, set-pieces unlock low blocks (ALG-JOR: 10 corners, both goals from corners). Mahrez-tier delivery overcomes sterile domination
- Camp chaos "defused" β resolved β β contract signing defuses the headline but team remains disorganized for ~1 match (SEN NOR-SEN: defensive errors persisted despite Thiaw signing)
- Rain (not heat) favors aerial favorite β β Finding 11 rain mechanism is DIFFERENT from heat. Wet pitch amplifies set-piece/aerial edge for physical teams (NOR-SEN MetLife rain β Haaland volley/Pedersen)
- Referee assignment must come from CURRENT WC source β β stale WC2022 career-history grep returned the WRONG ref for ARG-AUT (Makkelie β actual Omar). Bug caught, rule added
- GK changes are model-breaking (Finding 14) β Iraq (HassanβBasil backup, at fault for goal), SEN Mendy injury 62'. Pre-match GK confirmation critical
- Generational milestone rule (Finding 12 hard rule) ββ β Messi (18, all-time WC top scorer), MbappΓ© (16, tied Klose), Haaland (12-game streak), Ronaldo (FIRST to score at 6 WCs). Milestone-chasing generational players = reliable #1 scorer picks. 4x validated. BUT needs a finishing mechanism (weak GK/pen band/mobility swap) β milestone alone delivers minutes, not goals (Kane ENG-GHA 86' miss)
- Finding 22 blowout needs caliber split β β g4 systematically right on blowouts (POR-UZB 5-0, NOR 4-1, GER 7-1). Weight 4+ margin at 15-20% when: elite attack + non-veteran-GK block + (desperate underdog opening up OR tournament-team MD1-stutterβMD2-statement arc). mm3/g5 too conservative on the tail
- GK reversal requires shot-stopping evidence, not cap count β οΈ (ENG-GHA calibration miss) β Asare (domestic GHA, 13 caps) predicted as LIABILITY (lowers draw); delivered MOTM hot-GK heroics that FORCED the 0-0. Domestic-league / low-cap GKs CAN be hot-GKs at a WC. Reversal needs evidence the GK is genuinely poor, not just low-cap
- Finding 17 (sterile-domination) fires on favorites too β οΈ (ENG-GHA) β 78.8% poss / 1.28 xG / 0 goals. The "elite finishers" safety valve does NOT guarantee F17 exclusion. Add: favorites can sterile-dominate vs deep 4-5-1 + hot-GK even with Kane/Bellingham-tier finishers
Standings After Group Stage (ALL 12 groups complete)
| Group | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Mexico 9 β (+6) | South Africa 4 (-1) | South Korea 3 (-1) | Czechia 1 β (-4) |
| B | Switzerland 7 β (+5) | Canada 4 (+4) | Bosnia 4 (-2) | Qatar 1 β (-8) |
| C | Morocco 7 β (+3) | Brazil 4 (+1) | Scotland 3 (-2) | Haiti 0 β (-7) |
| D | USA 6 β (+4) | Australia 4 (+1) | Paraguay 4 (-2) | TΓΌrkiye 3 β (-1) |
| E | Germany 6 (+3) | Ivory Coast 6 β (+5) | Ecuador 4 (+1) | Curacao 1 β (-8) |
| F | Netherlands 7 β (+8) | Japan 5 (+5) | Sweden 4 (-1) | Tunisia 0 β (-10) |
| G | Egypt 5 (+3) | Belgium 5 (+4) | Iran 3 (-1) | New Zealand 1 β (-5) |
| H | Spain 7 β (+4) | Cape Verde 3 (0) | Saudi Arabia 2 (-3) | Uruguay 2 β (-4) |
| I | France 9 β (+9) | Norway 6 β (+1) | Senegal 3 (-3) | Iraq 0 β (-7) |
| J | Argentina 9 β (+7) | Austria 4 (0) | Algeria 4 (-1) | Jordan 0 β (-5) |
| K | Colombia 7 β (+3) | Portugal 5 (+4) | DR Congo 4 (-1) | Uzbekistan 0 β (-9) |
| L | England 7 β (+4) | Croatia 6 (0) | Ghana 4 (0) | Panama 0 β (-4) |
Qualified (top-2 + 8 best-3rd): 16 teams through. Eliminated: 8 teams. Round of 32 begins Jun 28.
Next Matches
| Date | Matches | Group | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24-27 | MD3 (final group matches) | All 12 groups | π Fixtures in doc-3 |
| Jun 28 | Round of 32 begins | Knockouts | β Match 73 done |
R32 β Match 73: CAN 1-0 RSA (EustΓ‘quio 90+2')
R32 β Match 76: BRA 2-1 JPN (Casemiro 56', Martinelli 90+6' / Sano 29')
R32 β Match 74: PAR 1-1 GER (AET, PAR win 4-3 pens) β BIGGEST UPSET
R32 β Match 75: MAR 1-1 NED (AET, MAR win 3-2 pens) β Β§7K TREE EXACT
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NED vs MAR | 1-1βET/pens (modal) | NED ~54% advance | 1-1 AET, MAR 3-2 pens | β MAR! (was #2 option) | β οΈ 1-1 in top-3 but only 13%; modal was NED win | β οΈ Brobbey #1 blanked; Saibari #1 β (pen) + Gakpo #2 β | ~45% F-D |
Β§7K tree architecturally allowed the drawβETβpens path but under-weighted it (13%). This is a calibration FAILURE, not a success: all 3 agents had NED as modal 90' pick, none predicted DRAW as #1. "In top-3" with 3 outcomes is structural, not predictive. WDM correctly flagged near-equals (fav_share 0.59) but writers over-adjusted to NED (54% advance) on "KO experience" that didn't materialize. MAR xG 1.47 vs NED 0.33 shows MAR were the better side.
Hot-GK calibration refinement (2nd data point): Bounou β 2Γ WC shootout winner. The Γ0.25 empirical weight over-discounts confirmed multi-tournament shootout specialists. Split proposed: Γ0.25 for reputation, Γ0.5-0.6 for β₯1 prior WC shootout win.
Ref leniency refinement: Sampaio 4.8 Y/gm career β 1Y actual. CONMEBOL tournament tolerance compounds the discount multiplicatively. Proposed: 50-60% total card reduction for CONMEBOL refs at WC, not 20-25%.
R32 β Match 74: PAR 1-1 GER (AET, PAR win 4-3 pens) β BIGGEST UPSET
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GER vs PAR | GER 1-0 (modal) | GER ~74% advance | 1-1 AET, PAR 4-3 pens | β PAR! | β consensus modal GER 1-0 wrong (mm3 had 1-1) | β οΈ Undav #1 blanked; Havertz #3 β + Enciso #2 β | ~52% D |
CONMEBOL reactive blueprint (NEW FINDING): GER lost to TWO CONMEBOL reactive blocks in 5 days (ECU MD3 2-1, PAR R32 pens) with the identical template: low block + hot GK + counter pace. Squad value (β¬775M vs β¬100M) cannot see this. Proposed: cap favorite advance at ~60% vs confirmed reactive-block + in-form-GK.
Hot-GK calibration revision: Gill had 2 MOTMs in 3 games; the Γ0.25 empirical weight was too aggressive. Split proposed: Γ0.25 for reputation-only, Γ0.5-0.75 for β₯2 tournament MOTMs. Gill won the shootout (2 PK saves).
mm3 hero / g5 outlier: mm3 nailed the 1-1 modal; g5 (GER 67%/2-0/80%) was most bullish and most wrong. The Β§7K tree correctly carved PAR as a live 26% advance β a genuine coin-flip landed on PAR.
R32 β Match 76: BRA 2-1 JPN (Casemiro 56', Martinelli 90+6' / Sano 29')
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRA vs JPN | BRA 2-1 (modal) | BRA ~68% advance | 2-1 BRA | β BRA | β β (modal exact!) | β Vini #1 (post) / Martinelli sub (#5, 7%) | ~73% C |
WDM anchor (first use): squad-value baseline BRA 43% β writers adjusted to 50% β actual BRA win. Anchor compressed inter-writer variance from 12pt to 5pt (honest spread). Slightly under-estimated BRA (~7pt low) but ensemble corrected. Pedigree-exclusion holds.
Β§7K knockout tree (first use): modal path (BRA 2-1 in 90') = exact outcome. ET/pens branches correctly dormant. One calibration note: 25% draw-at-90' was ~10pt too high for clear-favorite KO with non-veteran-GK block β calibrate to 15-18%.
Finding 12 refinement: conservation is conditional-on-leading. Ancelotti-conservative-KO draw-tilt failed because BRA trailed from 29' β you can't manage a lead you don't have. Weight conservation-draw-tilt at 0% when favorite is trailing at HT.
R32 β Match 86: ARG 3-2 CPV (Messi 29', L.MartΓnez 92', Borges 111' OG / Duarte 59', Cabral 103') β CPV BLOCK ALMOST SHOCKED THE WORLD
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARG vs CPV | ARG 2-0 (modal) | ARG ~75% advance | 3-2 ARG (AET, 90' 1-1) | β ARG (AET) | β modal 2-0; 90' was 1-1 (23% band fired) | β Messi #1 β (29') / L.MartΓnez #2 β (92') / CPV #1 β | ~70% C |
CPV came within 8 minutes of the biggest R32 upset. 1-1 at 90', 1-2 up at 103'. The 23% draw band was RIGHT to be elevated (above the 15-18% clear-favorite floor). CPV is NOT a minnow β they drew ESP + URU at this venue and now pushed ARG to ET.
F22 blowout exclusion FULLY validated. Predicted 4+ margins at 5-8%; actual was 3-2 AET (closest possible). The CPV block + Vozinha template prevented the blowout completely. The partial exclusion was the right call.
Vozinha confirmed-form hot-GK held up (8 saves). Γ0.5-0.6 correct. Kept CPV in the match.
CPV scored 2 from 0.47 xG β extreme clinical finishing. Counter-attack efficiency at its best. ARG's xG dominance (2.26) was real but they needed ET + an OG.
F11 heat was a factor β ARG's press degraded in 33Β°C. The match went to ET in the heat. Tier 1 modulator reduced but didn't eliminate the penalty.
Messi milestone = 5/5+ in R32. Scored 29' (19 WC goals, extends record).
R32 β Match 88: EGY 1-1 AUS (Ashour 13' / Hany 55' OG; EGY win 4-2 pens) β COIN-FLIP + MODAL 1-1 HIT, SHOBEIR DECISIVE
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUS vs EGY | 1-1 (modal) | AUS ~52% advance | 1-1 AET, EGY 4-2 pens | β οΈ EGY (48% upset) | β β MODAL 1-1 EXACT (mm3+g5 #1) | β both #1 missed (Salah hamstring, Irankunda blanked) / Ashour #3 EGY β / Hany OG | ~72% C |
Coin-flip prediction was exactly right. Modal 1-1 HIT (mm3 + g5 both #1). The 28% draw band fired. Advance bet lost (AUS 52%) β but the reasoning held: the match was genuinely 50/50, went to pens.
Shobeir shootout edge was THE decisive factor (g5 predicted this). g5 specifically flagged EGY's pens edge via Shobeir (MD3 pen save). EGY won 4-2 on pens. g4/mm3 under-weighted this.
Salah hamstring validated as the #1 mover. Didn't score, limited, subbed before pens. The -3 to -5pt fitness drag was correct. Without it, EGY would've been clearer favorites.
EGY out-xG'd AUS 1.32 to 0.84 β EGY were the better side. The coin-flip prediction slightly under-rated EGY.
R32 β Match 83: ESP 3-0 AUT (Oyarzabal 36', 89' brace, Porro 66') β BLOWOUT UNDERESTIMATE (4th validation)
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP vs AUT | ESP 2-1/2-0 (modal) | ESP ~66% advance | 3-0 ESP (90') | β ESP | β modal 2-1; 3-0 blowout underestimate | β οΈ Yamal #1 β (subbed 85') / Oyarzabal #2 β β brace (36+89) / Porro surprise (66') | ~72% C |
Blowout underestimate (Finding 2/22, 4th R32 validation: FRA-SWE, ESP-AUT). Predicted 2-1; actual 3-0. ESP xG 2.80 vs AUT 0.32 (0 SoT). Up-weight 3+ margins to 20-25% vs PRESSING sides (AUT gegenpress); keep exclusion + 8-10% for low-block+veteran-GK sides. Pressing-vs-blocking caliber split now has 4 datapoints.
Who Scores refinement: striker #2 > winger #1. Yamal (winger/creator) blanked; Oyarzabal (#9 finisher) braced. When #1 is a winger and #2 is a pure striker, weight the striker higher.
ESP 0-GA spine validated. AUT 0.32 xG, 0 SoT. Gegenpress fully neutralized by CubarsΓ-Laporte-Rodri. Gegenpress β CONMEBOL low-block distinction confirmed β pressing sides get opened up; low-block sides don't.
R32 β Match 85: SUI 2-0 ALG (Embolo 10', Ndoye 46') β POSSESSION FLIP 3rd VALIDATION
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUI vs ALG | 1-1 / SUI 2-1 (modal) | SUI ~58% advance | 2-0 SUI (90') | β SUI | β οΈ modal 1-1/2-1; 2-0 margin within 1 goal but wrong shape (clean sheet) | β Embolo #1 β (10') / Ndoye #3 β (46') / Mahrez #1 ALG β (F16 boundary) | ~80% B |
Possession FLIP (Finding 8, 3rd R32 validation: MEX-ECU, USA-BIH, SUI-ALG). ALG had 56% possession; SUI won with 44% + clinical counter β the favorite played reactive AGAIN. Update Finding 8: possession flip is a knockout-FAVORITE pattern, not just defensive-underdog. Cap projected KO-favorite possession at ~48-52%.
Mahrez milestone β 0 goals (F16 boundary). Unlike MbappΓ©/Haaland/Kane/Ronaldo (all scored), Mahrez (35) did NOT convert. Milestone rule holds for stars β€~32 (peak), not 35+ (age-decline tier). At 35+, milestone β minutes not goals.
ALG defense was the swing (as predicted). 7 GA in 3 group games β 2 more from 2.45 xG. The pre-match flag was exactly right. But the coin-flip prediction (fav_share 0.63) was TOO CAUTIOUS β SUI won 2-0 comfortably. Learning: defensive fragility (7+ GA) should push fav_share higher than the WDM cap allows.
R32 β Match 84: POR 2-1 CRO (PeriΕ‘iΔ 53' / Ronaldo 68', G.Ramos 90') β AGE-DECLINE + HEAT COMPOUND VALIDATED
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR vs CRO | POR 1-0 / 1-1 (modal) | POR ~58% advance | 2-1 POR (90') | β POR | β οΈ modal 1-0; 2-1 margin within 1 goal but <15% | β Ronaldo #1 β (68' eq) / CRO #1 β (PeriΕ‘iΔ scored) | ~80% B |
WDM honesty validated (3rd time). fav_share was 0.64, not 0.72 β and the match WAS close (CRO led 53', POR needed a 90' winner). The β¬674M squad-value gap did NOT translate to dominance. R32-2 opponent-tier-weighted form was right to compress.
F11 heat + F20 age-decline compound VALIDATED (first R32). CRO's older spine (ModriΔ, PeriΕ‘iΔ) faded in 31Β°C heat β exactly as predicted. New pattern: heat degrades the OLDER team more, not necessarily the underdog. Proposed F11 refinement: add age-modulator (heat favors younger squad).
Ronaldo milestone rule = 5/5 in R32. Scored the equalizer (68'). Now scored in all 5 R32 milestone scenarios.
G.Ramos supersub winner (90'). β5 deduction (F19 unpredicted sub scorer decided the match). Late winners from subs are the recurring R32 scoring miss.
LivakoviΔ hot-GK confirmed-form credit was moot β match didn't reach pens. The Γ0.5-0.6 only matters if ET happens.
R32 β Match 81: USA 2-0 BIH (Balogun 45', Tillman 82') β MODAL EXACT, POSSESSION FLIP
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs BIH | USA 2-0 (modal) | USA ~70% advance | 2-0 USA (90') | β USA | β β MODAL EXACT (g4 #1 22%, mm3 #1 14%) | β Balogun #1 β (45') / Tillman #3 β (82') / DΕΎeko #1 BIH β (F16) | ~92% A |
Modal scoreline USA 2-0 HIT (g4 #1 pick). The home co-host + low-block-opponent model was exactly right. USA beat PAR 4-1 MD1 (same shape); this time 2-0 but same outcome. MD1-evidence signal validated.
Possession FLIP (Finding 8, 2nd R32 validation). BIH had 52% possession; USA won with 48% + clinical counter. Same as MEX-ECU β home favorites with a lead can play reactive. Possession is not a favorite requirement.
F16 DΕΎeko age-decline fully validated (4th data point). 40yo, 0 WC goals, BIH 0.25 xG. Milestone β minutes not goals (holds for 38+ players). BIH's attack was never a threat.
F22 blowout partial. Predicted 3+ margin 10-12%; actual 2-0 (just under). Early breach (Balogun 45') unlocked it; BIH's block limited to 2.
R32 β Match 82: BEL 3-2 SEN (Diarra 25', Sarr 51' / Lukaku 86', Tielemans 89', 120'+5' AET) β DRAW BAND FIRED, BEL CLINICAL
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEL vs SEN | BEL 2-1/1-0 (modal) | BEL ~61% advance | 3-2 BEL (AET, 90' 2-2) | β BEL (AET) | β modal 90' BEL win; 90' was 2-2 draw (23% band fired) | β οΈ De Bruyne #1 β / Sarr #1 SEN β (51') / Lukaku #5 β (86') | ~68% C |
The 23% draw band at 90' FIRED β match was 2-2 at 90'. The draw mechanism (predicted: BEL sterile + SEN counter) was directionally right but for the WRONG reason: SEN out-xG'd BEL 3.54 to 1.80 β SEN was the better chance-creator. BEL won through clinical finishing (3 from 1.80 xG) + Courtois holding in ET. The BEL advance was clinical/lucky, not dominant.
Deviation cap (R32-1) VALIDATED. The cap held BEL at ~61% (not 70%+) despite the β¬337M squad-value gap. The match confirmed a Tier-1 favorite can be out-created by an AFCON underdog with a real attack (Sarr 4-in-4). The cap prevented over-rating BEL.
Sarr #1 SEN β β the hottest scorer delivered (51'). Sarr now 4 in 4 WC games. SEN's Who Scores model was right. BEL scorers were WRONG (De Bruyne #1 missed; Lukaku supersub #5 + Tielemans surprise). BEL scoring is more distributed than the De Bruyne-centric model assumed.
F13 sterile-domination fired for the WRONG reason. Predicted BEL sterile (23 shots/0 vs IRN); actual BEL was clinical (3 from 1.80 xG). SEN was the better team on xG. The draw band was right, the mechanism was wrong.
R32 β Match 80: ENG 2-1 DRC (Cipenga 7' / Kane 75', 86' brace) β TEXTBOOK A (modal exact + Kane clutch)
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENG vs DRC | ENG 2-1 (modal) | ENG ~78% advance | 2-1 ENG (90') | β ENG | β β MODAL EXACT (mm3/g5 #1) | β β Kane #1 brace (75+86) / Wissa #1 β (Cipenga scored) | ~93% A |
Textbook A β the genuine inverse of NED-MAR. Modal scoreline ENG 2-1 hit exactly (mm3 + g5 both had it as #1). Kane #1 pick delivered a brace (75', 86') to turn a 0-1 HT deficit into a 2-1 win. Advance bet won in 90'. All findings validated.
Lineup-checker caught the model-breaker. DRC abandoned their 5-3-2 low block for 4-3-3 β retired the upset template. All 3 writers correctly removed the reactive blueprint. DRC scored early (Cipenga 7', the #9 in the open shape β wrong scorer predicted but right scoring-direction). ENG squad quality won.
Hot-GK is a SYSTEM product (3rd learning). Mpasi (2Γ validated hot-GK) made 5 saves but conceded 2 β good, not heroic, WITHOUT his low block. The R32-5 confirmed-form weight (Γ0.5-0.6) was correct: he's a good GK, but the low block was what enabled the 8-save barrages of POR/COL. Learning: hot-GK = block + GK compound, not the GK alone.
Kane milestone rule = 4/4 in R32 (Messi, MbappΓ©, Haaland, Kane). Brace to turn a deficit β clutch goals, not just minutes.
DRC scorer model needs refinement. Wissa #1 unanimous β Cipenga (the 4-3-3 #9) scored. When a team shifts formation, model the NEW front-3 scorers, not the inherited #1.
R32 β Match 80: MEX 2-0 ECU (QuiΓ±ones 22', JimΓ©nez 31') β HOME FORTRESS, EARLY BLITZ
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEX vs ECU | 1-1 (modal 90') | MEX ~60% advance | 2-0 MEX (90') | β MEX | β modal 1-1; 2-0 was 8-9% (<15%) | β JimΓ©nez #1 β (31') / Plata #1 β (blanked) | ~79% B |
Home fortress + early blitz. MEX scored both goals EARLY (22', 31') β NOT the predicted 60-75' altitude window. Travel fatigue (ECU 9-hr flight delay) hit from the start, not late. MEX won the first half, not the altitude phase.
Possession FLIP (Finding 8). ECU had 57% possession despite being the underdog. MEX (the favorite) played the reactive shape (43% poss + clinical counter) β the CONMEBOL blueprint INVERTED. A favorite can use reactive tactics too, especially at altitude with a lead.
R32-3 CONMEBOL cap was CONSERVATIVE. All 3 writers capped MEX advance at ~60%. MEX won in 90' comfortably. The cap protects against over-rating favorites, but with extreme environmental edges (Azteca altitude + home + acclimatization), the cap should flex upward.
Draw band OVER-priced (27% β 0%). Altitude + rain + two-defensive-teams logic pushed the draw band high. MEX's early 2-goal lead killed the draw. Proposed: draw-band-collapse rule when home favorite scores early β the draw is conditional on 0-0/1-1 at ~40'.
MEX defense elite (4 clean sheets, 0 GA all tournament). Under-rated β MEX didn't need 3 goals, just 1-2 because ECU was never scoring.
R32 β Match 79: FRA 3-0 SWE (MbappΓ© 45', 74' brace, Barcola 53') β BLOWOUT UNDERESTIMATE
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRA vs SWE | FRA 2-1 (modal) | FRA ~66% advance | 3-0 FRA (90') | β FRA | β modal 2-1; 3-0 blowout underestimate | β β MbappΓ© #1 brace (45+74) / Isak #1 β (blanked) | ~78% B |
Blowout underestimate (Finding 2/22, re-confirmed). Predicted FRA 2-1; actual 3-0. Matches GER 7-1 CUR, NED 5-1 SWE, POR 5-0 β elite attack + non-veteran-GK block = margin under-predicted. Weight 15-20% on 4+ margin still under-applied.
F11 heat penalty OVER-APPLIED (headline miss). Pre-match: 87Β°F/30.5Β°C threshold crossed β predicted FRA pressing degrades by 60'. Actual: FRA dominated (61% poss, 3.24 xG), SWE wilted instead. Learning: heat degrades Tier 2-3 pressing teams, NOT Tier 1 tournament teams. Proposed F11 refinement: add a tier modulator (reduce/zero heat penalty for Tier 1 favorites with elite fitness/depth).
Untested GK = SWE-negative (validated, 2nd data point). Widell ZetterstrΓΆm (debut, replaced dropped Nordfeldt) conceded 3 from 3.24 xG β no heroics. The NOR-CIV lesson (Nyland) held: untested GK is NOT a hot-GK. Correctly assessed pre-match.
MbappΓ© milestone rule = unstoppable (3rd validation). MbappΓ© brace β now 18 WC goals (tied Messi's all-time record). Milestone motivation β goals not just minutes.
R32 β Match 78: NOR 2-1 CIV (Nusa 39', Haaland 86' / Amad Diallo 74') β COIN-FLIP HONESTY HELD
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOR vs CIV | 1-1βET/pens (modal) | CIV ~52% advance | 2-1 NOR (90') | β οΈ NOR (coin-flip 48%) | β modal 1-1; NOR 2-1 was g4 #3 at 13% (<15%) | β Haaland #1 β (86') / CIV #1 PΓ©pΓ©-DiomandΓ© β; Amad sub β | ~62% C |
Coin-flip honesty WORKED. Ensemble flagged this as 48/52 (NOR/CIV advance) β NOR winning sits inside the honest band, not a miss. Deviation cap (R32-1) prevented over-rating CIV on squad value. The advance bet lost (leaned CIV) but the model never pretended certainty β the 3pt spread was correct uncertainty signaling.
Strict rubric applied (Jun 30): no "in top-3" inflation. Modal scoreline 1-1 was wrong; NOR 2-1 at 13% is under-weighted, not a hit. Advance pick (CIV 52%) lost β winner scored 13/25, not 25.
Hot-GK under-priced (3rd data point): Nyland β 4 saves incl. "save of the tournament" at 90'+7' (Diallo free-kick). The Γ0.25 reputation-only weight (R32-5) can't see a GK who goes hot IN-MATCH. Nyland had no prior WC shootout pedigree but delivered confirmed hot form when it mattered. Proposed refinement: flag POTENTIAL in-match hot-GK form for any starter in a coin-flip KO (not just prior pedigree). NOR's 7-GA defensive warning was inflated by the MD3 B-team (4-1 FRA) β filter rotation matches from the form factor.
Amad super-sub pattern (2nd tournament validation): Amad Diallo (60' sub) scored 74' β the SAME Amad who scored the 90' MD1 winner off the bench vs ECU. For teams with a known super-sub, weight the bench-impact scorer higher in Who Scores. CIV's #1 split (PΓ©pΓ©/DiomandΓ©) missed because their most dangerous scorer comes off the bench.
R32 β Match 73: CAN 1-0 RSA (EustΓ‘quio 90+2')
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSA vs CAN | CAN 44% / RSA 32% / ET-PK 24% | CAN ~54% advance | 1-0 CAN | β CAN | β (modal #2, 14%) | β David #1 blanked; EustΓ‘quio 90+2' | ~78% B |
Mental-resilience note: RSA's MD1 crowd/occasion regression (2 reds vs co-host MEX at Azteca) did NOT repeat tonight β 0 reds, structure held 92 min. Broos's formation evolution (5-3-2 β 4-2-3-1) + Sithole's disciplined return are evidence of mental adaptation. The MD1 meltdown was environment-specific (altitude + opening ceremony + debut pressure), not a structural character flaw.
MD2 K-L wave β CLOSED β (4/4 pre + post done, TASK-99 + rubric)
| Match | Result | Calibration | Pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR-UZB | 5-0 POR | ~80% B | β FULL (last pre-TASK-99) |
| ENG-GHA | 0-0 | ~45% F (BIG MISS) | β FULL TASK-99 |
| CRO-PAN | 0-1 CRO | ~68% C | β FULL TASK-99 |
| COL-DRC | 1-0 COL | ~82% B | β FULL TASK-99 |
MD2 I-J wave β CLOSED β
| Match | Result | Calibration | Pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARG-AUT | 2-0 ARG | ~92% A (modal exact) | β οΈ RAPID |
| FRA-IRA | 3-0 FRA | ~80% B | β FULL |
| NOR-SEN | 3-2 NOR | ~85% B | β FULL |
| ALG-JOR | 2-1 ALG | ~88% A (modal exact) | β FULL |
Per-Agent Calibration (20 matches: 16 R32 + 4 R16)
Strict rubric (Jun 30+). Per-agent, NOT consensus. Main band = 80pts (winner_90 15 + advance 10 + scoreline 25 + findings 20 + model-breaking 10). who_scores tracked separately. Validated by
experiments/validate-agent.mjs(auto: 50pts) +calibration-validatoragent (qualitative: 30pts). Full detail:sources/matches/{code}/calibration-scores.md.
| Match | Result | mm3 | g4 | g5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSA-CAN | CAN 1-0 | 71 B | 78 A | 50 C |
| BRA-JPN | BRA 2-1 | 53 C | 75 A | 75 A |
| GER-PAR | PAR pens | 60 B | 53 C | 48 C |
| NED-MAR | MAR pens | 55 C | 48 C | 60 B |
| NOR-CIV | NOR 2-1 | 71 B | 45 D | 56 C |
| FRA-SWE | FRA 3-0 | 43 D | 60 B | 58 C |
| MEX-ECU | MEX 2-0 | 70 B | 49 C | 46 D |
| ENG-DRC | ENG 2-1 | 80 A | 71 B | 80 A |
| BEL-SEN | BEL 3-2 AET | 56 C | 54 C | 54 C |
| USA-BIH | USA 2-0 | 70 B | 75 A | 70 B |
| ESP-AUT | ESP 3-0 | 63 B | 63 B | 68 B |
| POR-CRO | POR 2-1 | 68 B | 70 B | 73 A |
| SUI-ALG | SUI 2-0 | 60 B | 60 B | 48 C |
| ARG-CPV | ARG 3-2 AET | 67 B | 40 D | 67 B |
| AUS-EGY | EGY pens | 56 C | 49 C | 58 C |
| COL-GHA | COL 1-0 | 72 A | 76 A | 69 B |
| MAR-CAN | MAR 3-0 | 49 C | 59 C | 49 C |
| FRA-PAR | FRA 1-0 | 68 B | 53 C | 78 A |
| BRA-NOR | NOR 2-1 | 26 F | 48 C | 43 D |
| ENG-MEX | ENG 3-2 | 43 D | 62 B | 35 F |
Agent averages (20 matches):
| Agent | Model | Avg | Band | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | MiniMax-M3 | 60/80 (75%) | B | Best on coin-flips + draw-hedge. Highest findings avg. Most consistent (Ο=9.2). |
| g4 | glm-5-turbo (xhigh) | 59/80 (74%) | B | Best on clear favorites + scoreline precision. Most volatile (Ο=11.6). |
| g5 | zai/glm-5.2 (xhigh) | 59/80 (74%) | B | Best on model-breaker detection. Most A grades (4). |
Key framework insights:
- who_scores is the weakest skill (avg 7/20, 35%) β #1 picks miss often. Tracked separately.
- Blowout underestimate is systemic (FRA 3-0, ESP 3-0 predicted 2-1) β up-weight 3+ margins 20-25% vs pressing sides (R32-5e)
- Possession flip is a KO pattern (MEX-ECU, USA-BIH, SUI-ALG, ENG-MEX) β favorites win with <50% possession
- Hot-GK is a SYSTEM product (block + GK, not GK alone) β untested GK β hot-GK (R32-5f)
- Milestone rule holds β€~32 (MbappΓ©/Haaland/Kane/Ronaldo scored; Mahrez 35 blanked) β record-chasing overrides age (R32-5g)
- Referee archetype (rule #16): high-pen refs have variable card control under heat β pen band HIGH, card band LOW+WIDE
- The ensemble is genuinely diverse β no single agent dominates; each wins ~1/3 of matches
R16 Per-Agent Calibration (in progress)
| Match | Result | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR-CAN | MAR 3-0 | 49/80 C | 59/80 C | 49/80 C | ~52% D |
| FRA-PAR | FRA 1-0 | 68/80 B | 53/80 C | 78/80 A | ~93% A |
| BRA-NOR | NOR 2-1 | 26/80 F | 48/80 C | 43/80 D | ~63% C |
| ENG-MEX | ENG 3-2 | 43/80 D | 62/80 B | 35/80 F | ~65% C |
| POR-ESP | ESP 1-0 | 35/80 F | 70/80 B | 50/80 C | ~43% F |
| BEL-USA | BEL 4-1 | 25/80 F | 19/80 F | 23/80 F | ~25% F |
POR-ESP learnings: ESP 0 GA HELD vs Tier 1 (g5's opponent-inflated flag was wrong β elite spine CubarsΓ-Laporte-Rodri-SimΓ³n is genuine). Ronaldo farewell β 0 goals (F16 at 41, not record-chasing). Merino 90'+1' β 3rd R16 sub winner (F19 pattern). g4 best (leaned ESP + exact scoreline ESP 1-0).
ENG-MEX learnings: 0-GA defense broken (3 conceded β opponent-quality-inflated record vs weak group). ENG won with 33% possession (flip #4). Quansah (RB crisis) scored. 5-goal thriller defied altitude+block low-scoring prediction. g4 best (hedged 0-GA); g5 worst (sterile-domination bet wrong + modal 0-0).
BRA-NOR learnings: H2H curse (NOR unbeaten vs BRA ever) was under-applied (β2-3pt; should be β5pt). Haaland brace = milestone 6/6. BRA out-xG'd NOR 3:1 (2.73 vs 0.84) but profligate (4 big chances missed). Storm favoured NOR aerial edge. g4 best (storm-weighting right); mm3 worst (TOML bug + wrong modal direction).
FRA-PAR learnings: R32-3 CONMEBOL reactive blueprint held perfectly (3rd validation β FRA won 1-0, exactly the tight capped-favorite margin). MbappΓ© milestone = 19 WC goals (surpassed Messi). F11 heat 99Β°F applied correctly (Tier 1 muted to 1 goal). g5 nailed the modal 1-0 exact (25/25 scoreline). The cap is now the most-validated finding in the framework.
MAR-CAN learnings: R32-3 cap proved conservative (MAR won 3-0 dominantly). Bounou pens thesis mooted. Who Scores missed.
Last updated: July 7, 2026 (R16: 6/8 done). R32 complete. R16 remaining: ARG-EGY. QF bracket: FRA-MAR, NOR-ENG, ESP-vs-ARG/EGY, BEL-vs-COL/SUI.*