Turkiye vs. Paraguay - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis
2026 World Cup, Group D Matchday 2 | June 19/20, 2026 | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 8:00 PM PT (05:00 CEST Sat) | Referee: Iván Barton (SLV)
Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.
TL;DR
Turkiye slight favorite: TUR ~53% / DRAW ~28% / PAR ~20%. Top scoreline: 2-1 TUR (~14-22%). Güler/Yıldız unanimous #1 scorers. ELIMINATION MATCH — both 0pts, loser virtually OUT.
- ELIMINATION MATCH. Both TUR + PAR on 0pts (TUR -2, PAR -3). USA + AUS already on 3pts. Conservation = 0.
- TUR Tier 2 (creative spine Güler/Çalhanoğlu/Yıldız) vs PAR Tier 3 (defensive counter, Almirón/Enciso).
- TUR effectively home (base camp 15 min from Levi's). Bay Area Turkish diaspora.
- Yıldız back (calf). Enciso fit for PAR. PAR XI changes (Galarza + Pitta in).
- MD1 trauma: TUR 30 shots/0 goals (Beach heroics); PAR 1-4 collapse.
- Venue Levi's: OPEN-AIR, ~17-19°C (no heat penalty).
- Ref Barton (SLV): ~3.4 Y/gm tournament, ~20-25% pen band, neutral confed.
Watch: TUR's creative spine vs PAR's low block. If TUR can't break through by 60', the sterile-domination screen fires → draw risk spikes.
1. Win Probability Consensus
| Model | Turkiye | Draw | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| GLM-5 Turbo | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| glm-5.2 | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Consensus | ~53% | ~28% | ~20% |
Tight — TUR within 4pts. Draw 26-29% (lower than usual — both must-win reduces draw). GLM-5 Turbo again slightly higher (55%) but not an outlier.
2. Scoreline Consensus
| Score | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TUR 2-1 | — | — | 14% | ~14% (mm3/g4 didn't split) |
| TUR 1-0 | 22% (#1) | — | 11% | ~14% |
| 1-1 Draw | — | — | 13% | ~12% |
mm3's modal is 1-0 (22%); g4 and g5 lean 2-1. Close range — narrow TUR win is the consensus.
3. Who Scores Consensus
| TUR #1 | PAR #1 | |
|---|---|---|
| mm3 | Güler / Yıldız | Enciso / Almirón |
| GLM-5 Turbo | Güler / Yıldız | Enciso / Almirón |
| glm-5.2 | Güler / Yıldız | Enciso / Almirón |
| Consensus | Güler / Yıldız | Enciso / Almirón |
Unanimous across all 3. Güler is the creative hub; Enciso the counter threat.
Source Analyses
Consensus for TASK-65. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Projected lineups (flagged UNCONFIRMED). Kickoff 05:00 CEST Sat.