Germany vs. Ivory Coast - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis
2026 World Cup, Group E Matchday 2 | June 20, 2026 | BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET (22:00 CEST) | Referee: Juan Benítez (PAR)
Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.
TL;DR
Germany favored: GER ~58% / DRAW ~26% / CIV ~16%. Top scoreline: 2-1 GER (~15-22%) or 1-1 (~15%). Havertz unanimous #1 (~19-22%). Top-of-table decider — draw suits both. CIV's organized block + card trap + Wahi drama keep it tighter than 7-1. Finding 13 does NOT fire (Havertz = elite finisher).
- Group E TOP-OF-THE-TABLE DECIDER. GER 3pts (+6), CIV 3pts (+1). Draw suits both.
- GER Tier 1 (10-win streak, Havertz+Musiala+Wirtz — multi-dimensional). CIV Tier 2 (5-win streak, Amad+Diomandé, beat FRA in friendly).
- CIV: 3 on 1Y (Doué, Kessié, S Fofana — card trap). Wahi visa drama. Amad promoted to start. N'Dicka doubt.
- Venue BMO Toronto: OPEN-AIR, ~22-24°C, gusty 20-35 km/h.
- Ref Benítez (PAR): strict (~3-4Y), ~25-35% pen band, WC debutant.
- Finding 12: GER conservation = 0 (Nagelsmann aggressive). CIV modest (~3-5%).
Watch: CIV's 3-on-1Y yellow leash + Wahi visa drama. If they self-destruct (2nd yellows), GER wins comfortably.
1. Win Probability Consensus
| Model | Germany | Draw | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| GLM-5 Turbo | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| glm-5.2 | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Consensus | ~58% | ~26% | ~16% |
Extremely tight — GER within 2pts. All three agree CIV at 16-17%.
2. Scoreline Consensus
| Score | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-1 GER | 14% | 22% | 15% | ~17% (modal) |
| 1-1 Draw | 15% | — | — | ~12-15% |
| 2-0 GER | 13% | — | — | ~10% |
3. Who Scores Consensus
| GER #1 | CIV #1 | |
|---|---|---|
| mm3 | Havertz (22%) | Amad (18%) |
| GLM-5 Turbo | Havertz | Amad |
| glm-5.2 | Havertz (19%) | Amad (13%) |
| Consensus | Havertz | Amad |
Unanimous: Havertz (penalty taker + MD1 brace) + Amad (MD1 winner, promoted to start).
Source Analyses
- mm3 (MiniMax-M3)
- [GLM-5 Turbo]((/ger-vs-civ/ger-vs-civ-2026-pure-football-analysis-g4)
- glm-5.2
Consensus for TASK-73. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Projected lineups (flagged UNCONFIRMED). Kickoff 22:00 CEST.