Ecuador vs. Curacao - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis
2026 World Cup, Group E Matchday 2 | June 20/21, 2026 | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Kickoff: 7:00 PM CDT (02:00 CEST Sun) | Referee: Ma Ning (CHN)
Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.
TL;DR
Ecuador heavy favorite: ECU ~74% / DRAW ~16% / CUR ~9%. Top scoreline: 2-0 (~19-22%). Valencia unanimous #1. Both teams 0pts — must-win. Finding 22 Mode A fires (Valencia elite + CUR fragile block). Ma Ning strict + high pen band favors ECU.
- Both 0pts. ECU -1 GD, CUR -3 GD. Must-win. Conservation = 0.
- ECU Tier 3 with elite CBs (Pacho+Hincapié) + Valencia (49 intl goals) + Caicedo (Chelsea).
- CUR Tier 3 (FIFA #82, lost 7-1 to GER). Advocaat 78yo. Chong creative.
- Venue Arrowhead: OPEN-AIR, ~28°C (marginal heat). Flood watch.
- Ref Ma Ning: strict (4.27 Y/gm), ~30-40% pen band, card-happy.
Watch: Does ECU's attack convert (MD1: 0 SoT in 2H)? Or does the sterile-domination ghost resurface?
1. Win Probability Consensus
| Model | Ecuador | Draw | Curacao |
|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | ~72% | ~18% | ~10% |
| GLM-5 Turbo | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| glm-5.2 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Consensus | ~74% | ~17% | ~9% |
Tight — ECU within 3pts. GLM-5 Turbo most bullish (75%).
2. Scoreline Consensus
| Score | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU 2-0 | — | 22% | 19% | ~20% (modal) |
| ECU 3-0 | — | 18% | — | ~12% |
| ECU 1-0 | — | — | — | ~10% |
3. Who Scores Consensus
| ECU #1 | CUR #1 | |
|---|---|---|
| mm3 | Valencia | Chong |
| GLM-5 Turbo | Valencia | Chong |
| glm-5.2 | Valencia | Chong |
| Consensus | Valencia | Chong |
Unanimous: Valencia (49 intl goals, proven finisher) + Chong (creative threat).
Source Analyses
Consensus for TASK-75. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Projected lineups (flagged UNCONFIRMED). Kickoff 02:00 CEST Sun.