New Zealand vs. Egypt - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis
2026 World Cup, Group G Matchday 2 | June 21/22, 2026 | BC Place, Vancouver, Canada
Kickoff: 6:00 PM PT (03:00 CEST Mon) | Referee: Omar Al-Ali (UAE)
Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.
TL;DR
Egypt favorite: EGY ~57% / DRAW ~26% / NZL ~17%. Top scoreline: 1-0 EGY (~15%) or 2-1 EGY (~13-18%) or 2-0 (~14-17%). Marmoush unanimous #1. Egypt seeks first WC win since 1990. NZL's Wood→Just counter axis keeps draw live. Finding 13 gate passes (Marmoush = proven finisher). Finding 22 blowout capped (NZL organized block + Crocombe).
- Group G: ALL ON 1pt. Must-win for both.
- EGY Tier 2 (Salah + Marmoush, 7-time AFCON). Marmoush (€50m Man City) = the finisher. Salah = creator-as-scorer.
- NZL Tier 3 (OFC). Wood = star-as-creator (2 assists MD1, 0 goals). Organized defense (Bindon, Smith, Boxall). Crocombe GK.
- Venue BC Place: roof CLOSED, climate-controlled. Finding 11 = 0.
- Ref Al-Ali: ~2-3Y, ~15-20% pen band, lenient, WC debut.
- Finding 13 gate passes — Marmoush is a proven PL finisher. No sterile-domination risk.
- Finding 22 blowout capped — NZL's compact block + Crocombe caps 4+ margins at ~3-8%.
Watch: Marmoush's finishing. If he converts early → 2-0/2-1 EGY. If he's wasteful + Crocombe saves → 1-1.
1. Win Probability Consensus
| Model | Egypt | Draw | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| GLM-5 Turbo | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| glm-5.2 | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Consensus | ~57% | ~26% | ~17% |
Tight — EGY within 2pts. Draw 24-27%.
2. Scoreline Consensus
| Score | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EGY 1-0 | 15% | 15% | 14% | ~15% (co-modal) |
| EGY 2-1 | 13% | 18% | 12% | ~14% (co-modal) |
| EGY 2-0 | 11% | — | 17% | ~14% (co-modal) |
| 1-1 Draw | 14% | 14% | 15% | ~14% |
Extremely tight across 4 scorelines — all within 1-2pts. A genuine coin-flip on the exact result.
3. Who Scores Consensus
| EGY #1 | NZL #1 | |
|---|---|---|
| mm3 | Salah (18%) | Wood (14%) |
| GLM-5 Turbo | Marmoush (22%) | Wood (20%) |
| glm-5.2 | Marmoush (26%) | Wood (24%) |
| Consensus | Marmoush | Wood |
Marmoush (the finisher) over Salah (the creator) in 2 of 3 models. mm3 leaned Salah-as-#1 but the consensus favors the proven finisher.
Source Analyses
Consensus for TASK-83. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Projected lineups (flagged UNCONFIRMED). Kickoff 03:00 CEST Mon.