Tunisia vs. Japan - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis
2026 World Cup, Group F Matchday 2 | June 20/21, 2026 | Estadio Monterrey, Guadalupe, Mexico
Kickoff: 10:00 PM CST (06:00 CEST Sun) | Referee: Yusuke Araki (JPN) | 🏆 1,000th WC Match
Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.
TL;DR
Japan slight favorite despite creative gutting: JPN ~44% / DRAW ~31% / TUN ~25%. Top scoreline: 1-1 (~14-16%) or 1-0 JPN (~13-15%). JPN lost Kubo+Mitoma+Minamino+Endo (cumulative -12pt). TUN fired their manager after MD1 (Renard in, 4 days). Both desperate. Draw elevated. 1,000th WC match.
- JPN attack CUMULATIVELY GUTTED: Kubo OUT (knee), Mitoma OUT, Minamino OUT, Endo retired. 3 of top 4 attackers gone. -10-15pt (NOT full Finding 4a -25-30 — replacements credible: Doan, Kamada, Sugawara).
- TUN manager FIRED after MD1 (first WC sacking). Renard (4th WC, 2022 KSA upset of ARG) in for 4 days. New-manager bounce both ways.
- Venue Monterrey: OPEN-AIR, ~537m (BELOW altitude threshold — no pace-tax), ~22-23°C.
- Ref Araki (JPN): ~3-4Y, ~15-20% pen band, neutral.
- Finding 13 (sterile-domination): partially fires on JPN (gutted creative + Ueda wasteful MD1 → projected <1.5 xG).
Watch: Chamakh GK (2 errors MD1) vs Ueda finishing (6 shots/0 goals MD1). The swing variables are both about conversion, not creation.
1. Win Probability Consensus
| Model | Japan | Draw | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| GLM-5 Turbo | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| glm-5.2 | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Consensus | ~44% | ~31% | ~25% |
Tight — JPN within 4pts. Draw elevated to 31% (JPN creative gutting + TUN Renard bounce + Finding 13 partial fire).
2. Scoreline Consensus
| Score | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 Draw | 14% | 16% | — | ~14% (co-modal) |
| 1-0 JPN | 11% | 15% | 15% | ~14% (co-modal) |
| 0-0 | 8% | — | — | ~6% |
| 2-1 JPN | 9% | 11% | — | ~8% |
3. Who Scores Consensus
| JPN #1 | TUN #1 | |
|---|---|---|
| mm3 | Kamada (14%) | Mejbri (10%) |
| GLM-5 Turbo | Kamada / Doan | Sliti / Jaziri |
| glm-5.2 | Ueda / Kamada | Jaziri / Chaouat |
| Consensus | Kamada / Doan | Jaziri / Sliti |
JPN #1 splits (Kamada/Doan — creative mids, not the benched Ueda). TUN #1 splits (Jaziri/Sliti).
Source Analyses
Consensus for TASK-76. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Projected lineups (flagged UNCONFIRMED). Kickoff 06:00 CEST Sun. 1,000th WC match.