Spain vs. Saudi Arabia - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis

2026 World Cup, Group H Matchday 2 | June 21, 2026 | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET (18:00 CEST) | Referee: Raphael Claus (BRA)

Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.

TL;DR

Spain heavy favorite: ESP ~76% / DRAW ~16% / KSA ~8%. Top scoreline: 2-0 (~18-20%) or 3-0 (~18%). Morata unanimous #1. Yamal + Williams START (confirmed) — the MD1 sterile-domination mechanism is FIXED. Tournament-team depth (+3-5pts). Al-Owais the hot-GK swing.

Group H: ALL ON 1pt. ESP 0 goals scored (criticism-stung, must-win). KSA resilient (drew URU 1-1).
Yamal + Williams START (confirmed) — the MD1 0-0 was caused by them being benched. Finding 13 does NOT fire.
ESP = Tournament Team (Euro 2024 winners, escalates game-to-game). Raise win% 3-5pts.
KSA Tier 3. Al-Dawsari creative. Al-Owais GK (8 saves MD1 — 4th hot-GK of the tournament).
Venue Atlanta: roof CLOSED, climate-controlled. Finding 11 = 0.
Ref Claus: ~3.2 Y/gm, ~25-35% pen band.
Finding 22 blowout partial-limit: KSA mid-block + veteran GK → 4+ margins capped at 5-8% (not 15-20%).

Watch: Al-Owais's first 30'. A masterclass activates the 0-0/1-1 path and bites Yamal's 60-70' sub risk.

1. Win Probability Consensus

Model	Spain	Draw	Saudi Arabia
mm3	76%	15%	9%
GLM-5 Turbo	76%	16%	8%
glm-5.2	76%	16%	8%
Consensus	~76%	~16%	~8%

Identical — all 3 at exactly 76%. The tightest consensus of the tournament.

2. Scoreline Consensus

Score	mm3	g4	g5	Consensus
ESP 3-0	18% (#1)	—	—	~15-18%
ESP 2-0	17%	20%	18%	~18% (co-modal)
ESP 2-1	15%	—	—	~12%

3. Who Scores Consensus

	ESP #1	KSA #1
mm3	Morata	Al-Dawsari
GLM-5 Turbo	Morata	Al-Dawsari
glm-5.2	Morata (28%)	Al-Dawsari (22%)
Consensus	Morata	Al-Dawsari

Unanimous.

Source Analyses

Consensus for TASK-80. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Lineups CONFIRMED (Yamal+Williams start). Kickoff 18:00 CEST.