Brazil vs. Haiti - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis
2026 World Cup, Group C Matchday 2 | June 19/20, 2026 | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Kickoff: 8:30 PM ET (02:30 CEST Sat) | Referee: Alejandro Hernández Hernández (ESP)
Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.
TL;DR
Brazil heavy favorite: BRA ~79% / DRAW ~14% / HAI ~7%. Top scoreline: 3-0 (~17%). Vini Jr unanimous #1 scorer (~26%). Blowout Mode A fires — 4+ goal margins weighted at ~25-31%.
- BRA MUST WIN (Tier 1, drew MD1 1-1 vs MAR). HAI must-win-or-eliminated (0pts).
- Manager = ANCELOTTI (not Dorival Júnior — replaced May 2025).
- Neymar OUT (calf) — single absence, -3-5pt NOT gutting (Vini + Raphinha + Cunha intact).
- H2H: BRA 3-0-0 HAI (17-1 aggregate) — textbook blowout pattern.
- Finding 22 Mode A fires: elite finisher (Vini, in form) + fragile underdog + desperate favorite → 4+ margins at 25-31%.
- Ref Hernández: strict (~3.0 Y/gm tournament), ~30-40% pen band, favors BRA.
- Venue: open-air, ~24-26°C evening (no heat penalty).
Watch: Can BRA break the HAI block early, or does Placide keep it close?
1. Win Probability Consensus
| Model | Brazil | Draw | Haiti |
|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| GLM-5 Turbo | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| glm-5.2 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Consensus | ~79% | ~14% | ~7% |
Tight — BRA within 2pts. GLM-5 Turbo slightly higher (80%) but not an outlier.
2. Scoreline Consensus
| Score | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRA 3-0 | 15% (#1) | 18% (#1) | 18% (#1) | ~17% (modal) |
| BRA 2-0 | — | — | — | ~12-14% |
| BRA 4-0 | — | 10% | 11% | ~10% |
| BRA 3-1 | — | — | — | ~8% |
All 3 agree on 3-0 as modal. Blowout band (4+) at 25-31% — first time the pipeline has properly weighted this (correcting the GER 7-1 / SWE 5-1 / CAN 6-0 underestimates).
3. Who Scores Consensus
| BRA #1 | HAI #1 | |
|---|---|---|
| mm3 | Vini Jr | Isidor |
| GLM-5 Turbo | Vini Jr | Isidor |
| glm-5.2 | Vini Jr (26%) | Isidor (9%) |
| Consensus | Vini Jr | Isidor |
Unanimous: Vini Jr #1 for BRA (MD1 scorer, in-form elite). Isidor for HAI (counter-pace).
Source Analyses
Consensus for TASK-64. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Projected lineups (T-200, flagged UNCONFIRMED). Kickoff 02:30 CEST Sat.