Belgium vs. Iran - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis

2026 World Cup, Group G Matchday 2 | June 21, 2026 | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

Kickoff: 12:00 PM PT (21:00 CEST) | Referee: Darío Herrera (ARG)

Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.

TL;DR

Belgium favorite: BEL ~61% / DRAW ~26% / IRN ~13%. Top scoreline: 2-0 (~17-19%) or 1-1 (~17-18%). Lukaku unanimous #1. Lukaku STARTS (first WC start) — partially fixes the MD1 sterile-domination, but Doku OUT (illness) + IRN low block keep draw live at 26%. IRN same-day travel (Tijuana→LA). Finding 13 fires moderately.

Group G: ALL ON 1pt. BEL 0 goals (criticism). IRN resilient (drew NZL 2-2).
Lukaku STARTS (confirmed — first WC start). Doku OUT (illness, Saelemaekers in).
IRN: Taremi starts. Beiranvand GK. Same-day travel. Azmoun omitted.
Venue SoFi: partial canopy, ~21°C. Ref Herrera: ~3.4 Y/gm, ~25-35% pen band.
BEL is NOT a tournament team (aging Golden Gen). IRN disrupted but resilient.
Finding 13 fires moderately — Lukaku partially fixes the finisher problem, but Doku's absence strips penetration + Lukaku out of match form.

Watch: Lukaku subbed at 60' with score level → reverts to MD1 sterile pattern.

1. Win Probability Consensus

Model	Belgium	Draw	Iran
mm3	58%	28%	14%
GLM-5 Turbo	62%	25%	13%
glm-5.2	62%	26%	12%
Consensus	~61%	~26%	~13%

BEL within 4pts. Draw 25-28% (elevated — Finding 13 + Doku out + IRN low block).

2. Scoreline Consensus

Score	mm3	g4	g5	Consensus
2-0 BEL	13%	19%	17%	~17% (modal)
1-1 Draw	18%	17%	—	~17% (co-modal)
BEL 1-0	15%	14%	—	~12%
BEL 2-1	12%	15%	—	~10%

The draw is genuinely co-modal with 2-0 — the Finding 13 partial-fire makes this tighter than a typical Tier 1 vs Tier 3.

3. Who Scores Consensus

	BEL #1	IRN #1
mm3	Lukaku (22%)	Taremi (18%)
GLM-5 Turbo	Lukaku	Taremi
glm-5.2	Lukaku	Taremi
Consensus	Lukaku	Taremi

Unanimous.

Source Analyses

Consensus for TASK-81. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Lineups CONFIRMED (Lukaku starts, Doku out). Kickoff 21:00 CEST.