Uruguay vs. Cape Verde - Consensus / Ensemble Analysis
2026 World Cup, Group H Matchday 2 | June 21, 2026 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Kickoff: 6:00 PM ET (00:00 CEST Mon) | Referee: Espen Eskås (NOR)
Meta-analysis of 3 models (mm3, GLM-5 Turbo, glm-5.2). 22 calibration rules. TOML metrics included.
TL;DR
Uruguay favorite but draw-respected: URU ~62% / DRAW ~26% / CPV ~11%. Top scoreline: 1-0 URU (~18-20%) or 1-1 (~16-17%). Maxi Araújo unanimous #1. Núñez DROPPED (Viñas the #9), Muslera 39yo starts. CPV deep 4-5-1 + Vozinha 40yo GK = Finding 22 blowout EXCLUDED. Miami HEAT FLAG (>28°C) degrades URU press by 60'. Finding 13 fires — URU's gutted creative (Núñez out, De Arrascaeta injured) vs the same block + GK that held ESP to 0-0.
- Group H: ALL ON 1pt. Must-win.
- Núñez DROPPED (hooked at 46' MD1). Viñas the new #9. Muslera (39yo) starts instead of Rochet.
- CPV unchanged 4-5-1 deep block. Vozinha (40yo, held ESP to 0-0 MD1).
- Venue Miami: OPEN-AIR, ~28-32°C heat index 33-39°C (HEAT FLAG — Finding 11 applies).
- Finding 22 blowout EXCLUDED — CPV = deep 4-5-1 + Vozinha veteran GK → 4+ margins at 5-8%.
- Finding 13 fires — URU creative gutted (Núñez out, De Arrascaeta injured). But URU is NOT a tournament team (no depth-absorption).
Watch: Vozinha. If he reproduces ESP heroics → 0-0 becomes live.
1. Win Probability Consensus
| Model | Uruguay | Draw | Cape Verde |
|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 62% | 26% | 12% |
| GLM-5 Turbo | 62% | 26% | 12% |
| glm-5.2 | 63% | 26% | 11% |
| Consensus | ~62% | ~26% | ~12% |
Extremely tight — all 3 within 1pt. Draw 26% (Finding 13 fires + heat + Vozinha).
2. Scoreline Consensus
| Score | mm3 | g4 | g5 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| URU 1-0 | 18% | 20% | 17% | ~18% (modal) |
| 1-1 Draw | 16% | 17% | — | ~14% |
| URU 2-0 | 14% | 22% | 15% | ~15% |
3. Who Scores Consensus
| URU #1 | CPV #1 | |
|---|---|---|
| mm3 | Maxi Araújo (35%) | Livramento (12%) |
| GLM-5 Turbo | Maxi Araújo / Valverde | Garry Rodrigues |
| glm-5.2 | Maxi Araújo | Garry Rodrigues |
| Consensus | Maxi Araújo | Garry Rodrigues |
Unanimous: Maxi Araújo (form creator, replaces Núñez as #1 scorer pick).
Source Analyses
Consensus for TASK-82. Sources: match dir + canonical. 22 rules. Lineups CONFIRMED (Núñez dropped, Muslera starts). Kickoff 00:00 CEST Mon.