Algeria vs. Jordan - Consensus Ensemble
2026 World Cup, Group J MD2 | June 22/23, 2026 | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara (OPEN-AIR, mild 17-19°C night)
⚠️ ELIMINATION MATCH — both teams on 0pts, loser virtually out
TL;DR
Algeria ~59% / Draw ~26% / Jordan ~15%. Modal scoreline: ALG 2-1 (consensus, ~18%). Amoura OUT (-4pt, single absence NOT gutting) offset by Mahrez RETURNS (+2-3pt fresh). Jordan venue-familiarity edge (6 days at Levi's). Finding 17 (sterile-domination risk) partially fires — without Amoura's pace, ALG could circulate vs JOR 5-4-1 without penetrating → draw band held high (26%). Tamari (JOR) is the counter-weapon. Vinčič lenient (2Y in WC BRA-MAR, 8-12% pen band).
- Win%: ALG 59% / DRAW 26% / JOR 15% — tight (ALG 59-60%).
- Scoreline: ALG 2-1 modal (mm3 1-0 alt, g4 2-1 20%, g5 2-1 18%). Runner-up: ALG 1-0 / 1-1 Draw.
- Who Scores: Mahrez ALG #1 (~19%) — returns benched MD1, fresh, captain, set-piece. Tamari JOR #1 (~14-16%) — counter-weapon.
- Finding 4a: ✅ does NOT fire (unanimous) — Amoura is single absence, not 2+ of {creator/striker/GK}. -4pt standard, not 25-30pt gutting.
- Finding 17 (sterile-domination): ⚠️ partial fire — without Amoura's pace-in-behind, ALG's attack is static → draw band elevated (26%, mm3/g5).
- Finding 11: ✅ does NOT apply — Levi's open-air but mild night (17-19°C, no heat).
- Finding 12: 0% conservation (unanimous) — elimination match, both must-win.
Model Comparison
| Model | ALG | Draw | JOR | Modal Score | #1 ALG / JOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 59% | 25% | 16% | ALG 1-0 (16%) | Mahrez ~19% / Tamari ~13% |
| g4 | 60% | 25% | 15% | ALG 2-1 (20%) | Mahrez ~20% / Tamari ~15% |
| g5 | 59% | 28% | 13% | ALG 2-1 (18%) / 1-1 (17%) | Mahrez ~19% / Tamari ~16% |
| Consensus | 59% | 26% | 15% | ALG 2-1 | Mahrez ~19% / Tamari ~15% |
Spread: 1pt (59-60% ALG). g5 most draw-sympathetic (28%, Finding 17 + elimination). Models agree ALG #1 = Mahrez, JOR #1 = Tamari.
Decision Graph (doc-5) Resolution
- Group context: ALG 0pts (-3 GD), JOR 0pts (-2 GD). ELIMINATION match. Both must-win.
- Conservation (F12): 0% both sides — must-win, no coasting.
- Weather × style: Levi's OPEN-AIR but ~17-19°C mild night. No heat flag → Finding 11 does NOT apply.
- Weather × defense: N/A (no heat).
- Temperament: Petković (ALG) pragmatic, possession, under pressure post-MD1 criticism. Sellami (JOR) reactive 5-4-1 counter via Tamari, well-drilled. Jordan venue-familiarity edge (6 days at Levi's, played MD1 there) — +2-3pt JOR.
- Synthesis: ALG base ~60-65% (Tier 2 vs Tier 3). Amoura OUT (-4pt, NOT gutting). Mahrez returns (+2-3pt fresh). JOR venue familiarity (+2-3pt JOR). JOR not toothless (Olwan scored MD1). Finding 17 partial (sterile-domination risk) raises draw. Net ALG 59%.
Key Risks & Watch
- ⚠️ Amoura OUT — pace-in-behind gone (thigh, ~2 weeks). Single absence (-4pt), NOT Finding 4a. Mahrez return offsets.
- ⚠️ Mahrez sub-risk — hasn't played 90' for Algeria since Jan 2024. ~60-70' window likely. Finding 16 age-decline light application.
- ⚠️ Jordan GK Abulaila — domestic-league GK, NOT hot-GK tier (Vozinha/Mendy). Finding 4 at reduced ~8-10%. Caps the draw below 32%.
- Jordan live threat — NOT a minnow. AUT-JOR was 1-1 at 76' before OG + late pen. Olwan scored. Vinčič doesn't protect dribblers → Jordan counter space.
- Vinčič leniency — 2Y in WC BRA-MAR (whistle-swallowed). Card band 2-3 yellows. 8-12% pen band (NORMAL tier, NOT 30-40%).
Watch
The Amoura absence pattern. If Algeria has no pace in behind (Amoura gone) and Mahrez is subbed by 65', Jordan's 5-4-1 + counter via Tamari could force the 1-1 draw. If Mahrez delivers early (set-piece/open play), Algeria wins 2-1. The draw is genuinely live at 26%.
Consensus ensemble for ALG-JOR. 3 models (mm3/g4/g5) from full gathering. Full post-event after kickoff. Last updated Jun 22, 2026.