World Cup 2026 β Predictions vs Results
Master Summary Table
Completed Matches β 48 reviewed (24 MD1 + 24 MD2 all groups)
MD1 (Jun 11-17) β 24 matches
| Match |
Prediction |
Win % |
Actual |
Winner |
Score Hit |
Who Scores |
Acc |
| MEX vs RSA |
MEX win |
MEX ~fav |
2-0 |
β
MEX |
β |
β |
~rev |
| KOR vs CZE |
KOR win |
KOR ~fav |
2-1 |
β
KOR |
β |
β |
~rev |
| CAN vs BiH |
CAN 1-0 (35%) |
CAN ~50% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β (#3) |
β
Both mechanisms |
~73% |
| USA vs PAR |
USA 2-1 (30%) |
USA ~70% |
4-1 |
β
USA |
β (#4) |
β
Balogun (#2) |
~75% |
| QAT vs SUI |
SUI 2-0 (35%) |
SUI ~70% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β |
β 0/2 |
~56% |
| HAI vs SCO |
SCO 2-0 (30%) |
SCO ~78% |
0-1 |
β
SCO |
β |
β
McGinn (#3) |
~78% |
| BRA vs MAR |
BRA 2-1 (28%) |
~45% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β
(#2) |
β
β
Vini #1 + Saibari #3 |
~82% |
| AUS vs TUR |
TUR 2-0 (30%) |
TUR ~83% |
2-0 |
β AUS! |
β |
β 0/6 |
~45% |
| GER vs CUR |
GER 4-0 (28%) |
GER ~94% |
7-1 |
β
GER |
β |
β
β
Havertz #1 (brace) + Musiala #2 |
~72% |
| NED vs JPN |
NED 2-1 (18%) |
NED ~46% |
2-2 |
Draw |
β οΈ (draw #2) |
β but Van Dijk #5 + Kubo #2 assist |
~79% |
| CIV vs ECU |
1-1 Draw (18%) |
ECU 35%, CIV 35% |
1-0 |
β οΈ CIV |
β
(#3) |
β
β
Amad #1 (sub!) |
~78% |
| SWE vs TUN |
SWE 2-1 (18%) |
SWE ~60% |
5-1 |
β
SWE |
β (margin) |
β
β
GyΓΆkeres #1 + Isak #2 |
~72% |
| ESP vs CPV |
ESP 3-0 (25%) |
ESP ~90% |
0-0 |
Draw! |
β |
β Yamal benched |
~30% (biggest MD1 miss) |
| BEL vs EGY |
BEL 2-0 (20%) |
BEL ~62% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β
(#3) |
β οΈ Salah assisted, Lukaku forced OG |
~65% |
| KSA vs URU |
URU 1-0 (rev 49%) |
URU 49% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β
(#2) |
β οΈ Al-Amri (CB!) scored |
~70% |
| IRN vs NZL |
IRN 1-0 (rev 53%) |
IRN 53% |
2-2 |
Draw |
β οΈ (draw #1-2) |
β
β
Just #2 + Mohebi #3 |
~75% |
| FRA vs SEN |
FRA 2-1 (~17%) |
FRA ~56% / D ~25% |
3-1 |
β
FRA |
β οΈ (3-1 ~8%) |
β
β
MbappΓ© #1 (brace!) |
~75% |
| IRA vs NOR |
NOR 2-0 (~18%) |
NOR ~59% / D ~25% |
4-1 |
β
NOR |
β (margin) |
β
β
Haaland #1 (brace!) + Hussein #1 |
~78% |
| ARG vs ALG |
ARG 2-0 (~21%) |
ARG ~62% / D ~24% |
3-0 |
β
ARG |
β οΈ (3-0 ~8%) |
β
β
β
Messi #1 (HAT-TRICK!) |
~80% |
| AUT vs JOR |
AUT 2-0 (~15%) |
AUT ~58% / D ~27% |
3-1 |
β
AUT |
β (margin) |
β
ArnautoviΔ #1 (pen!) |
~72% |
| POR vs DRC |
POR 2-0 (~19%) |
POR ~69% / D ~21% |
1-1 |
β Draw! |
β οΈ (1-1 top-4) |
β οΈ Ronaldo β / β
Wissa (#3-4) |
~50% |
| GHA vs PAN |
1-1 Draw (~15%) |
GHA ~34% / D ~30% / PAN ~36% |
1-0 GHA |
β οΈ (coin-flip) |
β
β
1-0 in all 3 top-3 |
β οΈ Semenyo via ASSIST |
~78% |
| ENG vs CRO |
ENG 2-1 (~17%) |
ENG ~55% / D ~26% |
4-2 |
β
ENG |
β (margin) |
β
β
Kane #1 (brace!) + Bellingham |
~68% |
| UZB vs COL |
β NO PRE-MATCH |
β |
1-3 COL |
β blind |
β blind |
β blind |
N/A |
MD2 Groups A-H (Jun 18-21) β 16 matches
| Match |
Prediction |
Win % |
Actual |
Winner |
Score Hit |
Who Scores |
Acc |
| MEX vs KOR |
MEX ~46% / D ~30% |
MEX 1-0 modal |
1-0 |
β
MEX |
β
β
(1-0 modal!) |
β
Romo |
~78% |
| CZE vs RSA |
1-1 Draw (~15%) |
CZE ~39% / D ~33% |
1-1 |
β
DRAW HIT |
β
β
(1-1 modal!) |
β Schick / β
SadΓlek (rotated CM) |
~80% |
| CAN vs QAT |
CAN ~48% |
CAN 2-0/2-1 modal |
6-0 |
β
CAN |
β (blowout) |
β
Larin + David |
~58% |
| SUI vs BiH |
SUI win |
SUI 2-0 modal |
4-1 |
β
SUI |
β (margin) |
β
Amdouni |
~62% |
| BRA vs HAI |
BRA ~72% |
BRA 3-0 modal |
3-0 |
β
BRA |
β
(3-0 modal!) |
β
β
Cunha #1 (brace!) + Vini Jr |
~88% |
| SCO vs MAR |
SCO win? |
SCO ~fav |
0-1 |
β MAR! |
β |
β
Saibari #1 (2' fastest WC goal!) |
~82% |
| USA vs AUS |
USA ~55% |
USA 2-1 modal |
2-0 |
β
USA |
β
(2-0 in range) |
β οΈ Burgess OG + Freeman |
~75% |
| TUR vs PAR |
TUR win |
TUR ~fav |
0-1 |
β PAR! (upset) |
β |
β
Galarza #1 (2'!) |
~55% |
| GER vs CIV |
GER ~64% |
GER 2-1 modal |
2-1 |
β
GER |
β
β
(2-1 modal!) |
β
Undav #1 (brace, 68'/90+4') |
~82% |
| ECU vs CUR |
ECU ~fav |
ECU 2-0 modal |
0-0 |
β DRAW! |
β |
β (Room 15 saves WC record) |
~45% (biggest upset) |
| NED vs SWE |
NED ~fav |
NED 2-1 modal |
5-1 |
β
NED |
β (margin way off) |
β
β
Brobbey + Gakpo (both braces!) |
~55% |
| TUN vs JPN |
JPN ~fav |
JPN 2-0 modal |
0-4 |
β
JPN |
β (margin) |
β
Ueda #1 (brace!) + Kamada #2 |
~55% |
| BEL vs IRN |
BEL ~61% |
BEL 2-0/1-1 co-modal |
0-0 |
β οΈ DRAW (#2) |
β (1-1 was co-modal, not 0-0) |
β Lukaku #1 (0G, subbed) / Beiranvand MOTM |
~75% |
| NZL vs EGY |
EGY ~57% |
EGY 1-0/2-0 co-modal |
1-3 |
β
EGY |
β (margin) |
β οΈ Marmoush #1 β / β
Salah (#2, 1G+1A) |
~72% |
| ESP vs KSA |
ESP ~85% |
ESP 3-0 modal (Finding 22) |
4-0 |
β
ESP |
β
(blowout band!) |
β
Yamal #1 (first WC goal!) + Oyarzabal #2 |
~85% |
| URU vs CPV |
URU ~62% |
URU 1-0 modal |
2-2 |
β οΈ DRAW (#2, ~26%) |
β |
β
β
Maxi AraΓΊjo #1 (1G+1A!) / CPV first-ever WC goals |
~80% |
MD2 Groups I-J (Jun 22) β 4 matches
| Match |
Prediction |
Win % |
Actual |
Winner |
Score Hit |
Who Scores |
Acc |
| ARG vs AUT |
ARG 2-0 (modal) |
ARG ~68% / D ~23% |
2-0 |
β
ARG |
β
β
(2-0 modal!) |
β
β
β
Messi #1 (brace! 18 WC goals, all-time top scorer) |
~92% A (RAPID) |
| FRA vs IRA |
FRA 2-0 (modal) |
FRA ~72% / D ~21% |
3-0 |
β
FRA |
β οΈ (+1G margin) |
β
β
MbappΓ© #1 (brace! tied Klose 16) |
~80% B |
| NOR vs SEN |
NOR 2-1 (modal) |
NOR ~60% / D ~24% |
3-2 |
β
NOR |
β οΈ (+1G each side) |
β
β
Haaland #1 (brace! 12-game streak) |
~85% B |
| ALG vs JOR |
ALG 2-1 (modal) |
ALG ~59% / D ~26% |
2-1 |
β
ALG |
β
β
(2-1 modal!) |
β οΈ Mahrez #1 (assist only) / β
Gouiri alt (winner) |
~88% A |
MD2 Groups K-L (Jun 23) β 4 matches β‘ TASK-99 independent resolution
| Match |
Prediction |
Win % |
Actual |
Winner |
Score Hit |
Who Scores |
Acc |
| POR vs UZB |
POR 2-0 (modal) |
POR ~75% / D ~19% |
5-0 |
β
POR |
β (blowout, g4 F22 right) |
β
β
Ronaldo #1 (brace! FIRST to score at 6 WCs) |
~80% B |
| ENG vs GHA |
ENG 2-0 (modal) |
ENG ~65% / D ~26% |
0-0 |
β οΈ DRAW (#2) |
β (0-0 not modal) |
β Kane #1 (0G, missed 86' sitter) |
~45% F (BIG MISS) |
| CRO vs PAN |
CRO 2-0/1-0 (modal) |
CRO ~60% (unan.) / D ~26% |
1-0 |
β
CRO |
β
(1-0 modal for mm3/g4!) |
β Musa #1 (subbed HT) / β
Budimir sub (F19) |
~68% C |
| COL vs DRC |
COL 1-0 (modal) |
COL ~59% / D ~29% |
1-0 |
β
COL |
β
β
(1-0 modal!) |
β DΓaz #1 (0G, 2 disallowed) / β
MuΓ±oz alt |
~82% B |
Cumulative Accuracy (72 matches, group stage complete)
| Component |
Hit Rate |
Grade |
| Winner prediction (incl. draw in top-3) |
~48/72 (67%) |
π’ Good |
| Winner prediction (strict modal only) |
~36/72 (50%) |
π‘ Moderate |
| Exact scoreline (top 3) |
~25/72 (35%) |
π‘ Stable |
| Who Scores β₯1 hit |
~34/50 (68%) |
π’ Good |
| Who Scores #1 hit |
~22/50 (44%) |
π‘ Sub risk + upsets |
| Referee red cards |
100% |
π’ Perfect |
| Yellow card count |
~50% range hit |
π‘ Over-predicts |
| Ensemble calibration avg |
~70% (42 rubric-scored) |
π’ Good |
Draws: 19 of 72 group-stage matches ended in draws (26%) β the draw rate declined through the tournament (MD1 33% β MD2 21% β MD3 17%). Pipeline now correctly prices draw band 25-33% for low-block matchups.
The Draw Epidemic (Finding 1, amplified) β 16 draws in 47 matches (34%)
MD1 draws (8): CAN 1-1 BiH Β· QAT 1-1 SUI Β· BRA 1-1 MAR Β· NED 2-2 JPN Β· ESP 0-0 CPV Β· BEL 1-1 EGY Β· KSA 1-1 URU Β· IRN 2-2 NZL
MD2 draws (8): CZE 1-1 RSA Β· ECU 0-0 CUR Β· BEL 0-0 IRN Β· URU 2-2 CPV Β· POR 1-1 DRC (MD1 carryover) Β· ENG 0-0 GHA (K-L)
Finding 13 (sterile-domination) β 3 consecutive validations (POR-DRC, ESP-CPV-style, BEL-IRN): Tier 1 favorite + low block underdog + hot GK = draw. This is now structural, not noise. Draw band should be 25-30% baseline for these matchups.
Finding 22 blowout EXCLUSION β validated twice (ECU-CUR 0-0, URU-CPV 2-2): when underdog plays deep 4-5-1 + veteran GK, favorite can't blow them out even with 1.92 xG. The blowout exclusion works.
Yellow Card Calibration Issue (NEW β MD2 finding)
Range hit rate: 11/20 (55%). Avg error: 1.4 yellows. Agents over-predict:
- Predicted avg: ~3.0-3.2 (20-25% tournament discount from ~4.0 career avg)
- Actual avg: 2.4 (1.9 excluding outliers)
- Fix needed: increase tournament discount to 35-40%, or use referee's actual WC tournament rate when available
Calibration Findings Summary (22 rules in doc-1)
Key findings validated/extended in MD2:
- Draws underpriced β 36% draw rate, now calibrated 25-33% for low-block matchups
- Blowout underestimate (Finding 22) β systematic (GER 7-1, SWE 5-1, NOR 4-1, ESP 4-0, CAN 6-0). When quality gap + elite finisher β 15-20% on 4+ margin. But has LIMIT: deep 4-5-1 + veteran GK excludes blowout (ECU-CUR, URU-CPV)
- Tournament referee leniency β 20-25% discount confirmed 8+ times. But still over-predicts yellows (actual 2.4 vs predicted 3.0)
- Lineup news invalidates the model β Yamal benched (MD1), Lukaku subbed, Marmoush subbed 76'
- Finding 13 (sterile-domination) β β 3 consecutive validations. Tier 1 + low block + hot GK = draw
- Low-block + hot GK (Finding 6) β 5+ validations (Vozinha, Beach, Shobeir, Al-Owais, Beiranvand)
- Tournament-team escalation β β ESP/GER/BRA/ARG/FRA/ENG/POR/JPN escalate game-to-game (+3-5pts MD2+). Validated: ESP 4-0, GER 2-1, BRA 3-0
- Tournament Energy Management (Finding 12) β context-dependent. Defending champions REDUCE discount. Manager personality > tier
- Sub-scorer rule β continues (TrΓ©zΓ©guet 82', Undav, Amad, Barcola, Mbaye). Fresh legs vs tiring defense
- Finding 16 age-decline extends to GKs β Muslera (39yo) error cost URU vs CPV
- NOT tournament teams β BEL (0 goals in 2 matches), URU (wasteful, Bielsa leaving), TUR (5 root causes, crisis)
- Generational milestone rule (Finding 12 hard rule) β β Messi (18, all-time WC top scorer), MbappΓ© (16, tied Klose), Haaland (12-game streak). Milestone-chasing generational players = reliable #1 scorer picks. 3x validated
- Finding 17 resolves via HT subs β β sterile-domination can be unlocked mid-match by aggressive substitutions (ALG-JOR: 0.65 xG HT β 1.25 xG 2H after Bentaleb+Benbouali). Managerial intervention matters
- Set-piece as Finding 17 equalizer β β when open play is sterile, set-pieces unlock low blocks (ALG-JOR: 10 corners, both goals from corners). Mahrez-tier delivery overcomes sterile domination
- Camp chaos "defused" β resolved β β contract signing defuses the headline but team remains disorganized for ~1 match (SEN NOR-SEN: defensive errors persisted despite Thiaw signing)
- Rain (not heat) favors aerial favorite β β Finding 11 rain mechanism is DIFFERENT from heat. Wet pitch amplifies set-piece/aerial edge for physical teams (NOR-SEN MetLife rain β Haaland volley/Pedersen)
- Referee assignment must come from CURRENT WC source β β stale WC2022 career-history grep returned the WRONG ref for ARG-AUT (Makkelie β actual Omar). Bug caught, rule added
- GK changes are model-breaking (Finding 14) β Iraq (HassanβBasil backup, at fault for goal), SEN Mendy injury 62'. Pre-match GK confirmation critical
- Generational milestone rule (Finding 12 hard rule) ββ β Messi (18, all-time WC top scorer), MbappΓ© (16, tied Klose), Haaland (12-game streak), Ronaldo (FIRST to score at 6 WCs). Milestone-chasing generational players = reliable #1 scorer picks. 4x validated. BUT needs a finishing mechanism (weak GK/pen band/mobility swap) β milestone alone delivers minutes, not goals (Kane ENG-GHA 86' miss)
- Finding 22 blowout needs caliber split β β g4 systematically right on blowouts (POR-UZB 5-0, NOR 4-1, GER 7-1). Weight 4+ margin at 15-20% when: elite attack + non-veteran-GK block + (desperate underdog opening up OR tournament-team MD1-stutterβMD2-statement arc). mm3/g5 too conservative on the tail
- GK reversal requires shot-stopping evidence, not cap count β οΈ (ENG-GHA calibration miss) β Asare (domestic GHA, 13 caps) predicted as LIABILITY (lowers draw); delivered MOTM hot-GK heroics that FORCED the 0-0. Domestic-league / low-cap GKs CAN be hot-GKs at a WC. Reversal needs evidence the GK is genuinely poor, not just low-cap
- Finding 17 (sterile-domination) fires on favorites too β οΈ (ENG-GHA) β 78.8% poss / 1.28 xG / 0 goals. The "elite finishers" safety valve does NOT guarantee F17 exclusion. Add: favorites can sterile-dominate vs deep 4-5-1 + hot-GK even with Kane/Bellingham-tier finishers
Standings After Group Stage (ALL 12 groups complete)
| Group |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| A |
Mexico 9 β
(+6) |
South Africa 4 (-1) |
South Korea 3 (-1) |
Czechia 1 β (-4) |
| B |
Switzerland 7 β
(+5) |
Canada 4 (+4) |
Bosnia 4 (-2) |
Qatar 1 β (-8) |
| C |
Morocco 7 β
(+3) |
Brazil 4 (+1) |
Scotland 3 (-2) |
Haiti 0 β (-7) |
| D |
USA 6 β
(+4) |
Australia 4 (+1) |
Paraguay 4 (-2) |
TΓΌrkiye 3 β (-1) |
| E |
Germany 6 (+3) |
Ivory Coast 6 β
(+5) |
Ecuador 4 (+1) |
Curacao 1 β (-8) |
| F |
Netherlands 7 β
(+8) |
Japan 5 (+5) |
Sweden 4 (-1) |
Tunisia 0 β (-10) |
| G |
Egypt 5 (+3) |
Belgium 5 (+4) |
Iran 3 (-1) |
New Zealand 1 β (-5) |
| H |
Spain 7 β
(+4) |
Cape Verde 3 (0) |
Saudi Arabia 2 (-3) |
Uruguay 2 β (-4) |
| I |
France 9 β
(+9) |
Norway 6 β
(+1) |
Senegal 3 (-3) |
Iraq 0 β (-7) |
| J |
Argentina 9 β
(+7) |
Austria 4 (0) |
Algeria 4 (-1) |
Jordan 0 β (-5) |
| K |
Colombia 7 β
(+3) |
Portugal 5 (+4) |
DR Congo 4 (-1) |
Uzbekistan 0 β (-9) |
| L |
England 7 β
(+4) |
Croatia 6 (0) |
Ghana 4 (0) |
Panama 0 β (-4) |
Qualified (top-2 + 8 best-3rd): 16 teams through. Eliminated: 8 teams. Round of 32 begins Jun 28.
Next Matches
| Date |
Matches |
Group |
Status |
| Jun 24-27 |
MD3 (final group matches) |
All 12 groups |
π Fixtures in doc-3 |
| Jun 28 |
Round of 32 begins |
Knockouts |
π |
MD2 K-L wave β CLOSED β
(4/4 pre + post done, TASK-99 + rubric)
| Match |
Result |
Calibration |
Pipeline |
| POR-UZB |
5-0 POR |
~80% B |
β
FULL (last pre-TASK-99) |
| ENG-GHA |
0-0 |
~45% F (BIG MISS) |
β
FULL TASK-99 |
| CRO-PAN |
0-1 CRO |
~68% C |
β
FULL TASK-99 |
| COL-DRC |
1-0 COL |
~82% B |
β
FULL TASK-99 |
MD2 I-J wave β CLOSED β
| Match |
Result |
Calibration |
Pipeline |
| ARG-AUT |
2-0 ARG |
~92% A (modal exact) |
β οΈ RAPID |
| FRA-IRA |
3-0 FRA |
~80% B |
β
FULL |
| NOR-SEN |
3-2 NOR |
~85% B |
β
FULL |
| ALG-JOR |
2-1 ALG |
~88% A (modal exact) |
β
FULL |
Last updated: June 28, 2026. GROUP STAGE COMPLETE β all 72 matches analyzed + post-event reviewed. 24 calibration rules in doc-1 (incl. F23 GD-chase + F24 bracket optimization). Per-agent accuracy: g5 best winner (68%), mm3 best closest (22x) + scorer (44%), g4 most volume (41). TASK-99 independent resolution validated (avg spread 8pt). R32 begins Jun 28. Knockout format: no draws, no F23/F24 (group-stage-specific).