Uruguay vs. Cape Verde - Pure Football Analysis (GLM-5 Turbo)
2026 World Cup, Group H | June 21, 2026 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Kickoff: 00:00 CEST | Referee: Espen Eskås (Norway)
TL;DR
URU 62% / Draw 26% / CPV 12%. Modal: URU 2-0 (22%). Maxi Araújo #1 scorer (38%). Sterile domination fires — Viñas is not a WC-level #9, Vozinha validated, Miami heat kills Bielsa's press after 60'.
- Núñez DROPPED — Viñas starts as #9; URU's only natural striker is unproven at this level (12 goals in 58 caps, 0 vs KSA, benched 87th minute MD1). Finding 17 "no specialist striker" flag fires.
- Vozinha is the variable — 7 saves vs ESP (FIFA #2). 15-20% chance of another 1-in-10 game that flips the result. CPV's deep 4-5-1 + veteran GK = Finding 22 blowout excluded.
- Heat >28°C + open-air Hard Rock — Bielsa's press degrades by 60'. URU had 25 shots / 1 goal vs KSA in identical conditions. The sterile domination pattern is live.
- Eskås (NOR): ~2-4 yellows, 0 reds, 15-25% penalty band. Moderate card rate, tournament-discounted. VAR ~25-30% intervention.
- Asymmetric urgency: URU MUST win (ESP next), CPV content with draw (KSA next) → Bielsa goes full throttle, Bubista parks the bus.
- Watch: Can Valverde-Araújo quality overcome the Vozinha-low-block-heat compound? If URU scores inside 30', the block opens and it could be comfortable. If 0-0 at 60', the draw probability spikes to ~40%.
Prediction: URU 2-0 (22%), URU 1-0 (20%), 1-1 Draw (17%), URU 2-1 (14%), 0-0 Draw (10%)
1. Uruguay — Team Profile
Basic Info
- FIFA Ranking: #16 | Manager: Marcelo Bielsa (ARG, since 2023) | WC History: 2x winners (1930, 1950), R16 2022 | Form: D 1-1 KSA, L 1-5 USA (friendly) | Base Camp: Playa del Carmen, Mexico (same-state bus to Miami, no travel disruption)
- Market Value: €359.3m | Avg Age: 28.8 | Tier: 2 (CONMEBOL dark-horse)
Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2)
- Man-oriented aggressive high press, vertical transitions, fullback overlaps. Bielsa's signature — energy-intensive, vulnerable to counter-attacks and heat.
- MD1 vs KSA: 65% possession, 25 shots, 1 goal. Toothless domination — scored ≤1 goal in 7 of last 8 games.
- Without a proven #9 (Núñez dropped, Suárez not in squad), the attack funnels through Valverde (creator-from-deep) and Araújo (wide creator/scorer). Viñas is the finisher by default.
Key Players
| Player | Club | Position | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Valverde | Real Madrid | CM/AM | Captain. Engine + creative hub. "Cuanto más toque la pelota, más influye" — playing higher per Bielsa. Star-as-creator (Finding 10). |
| Maximiliano Araújo | Sporting CP | LW | MD1 MOTM vs KSA (1G, 5 chances created, 5 crosses). Main creative outlet. In-form. |
| Federico Viñas | Las Palmas | ST | Unproven WC #9. 12 goals in 58 Uruguay apps. 0 goals vs KSA. Benched at 87' MD1. Substitution risk >30% if anonymous (Finding 13). |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | Tottenham | CDM | Tempo-setter, deep progressor. Penalty candidate. |
| Manuel Ugarte | Manchester United | CDM | Screen for the back four when Valverde pushes high. |
| Fernando Muslera | Galatasaray | GK | Age 39, 133 caps. Confirmed starter. Trusted by Bielsa. |
Strengths
- Valverde + Araújo are genuine WC-level creators — the double-creator hub is elite.
- Deep bench: Canobbio, Pellistri, De la Cruz, De Arrascaeta (possible return) provide multiple attacking angles.
- Set-piece threat from CBs (Giménez on bench, 100th cap milestone).
- Bielsa's pressing system generates enormous shot volume even when wasteful (25 shots MD1).
Weaknesses
- No specialist striker in the squad (Finding 17, 4th flag): Núñez dropped, Suárez not in squad, Viñas unproven. TUR parallel (2.10 xG → 0 goals with non-specialist #9).
- Sterile domination pattern: 25 shots / 1 goal vs KSA. MD1: 7 of last 8 games with ≤1 goal.
- Defensive fragility without Ronald Araújo. Olivera at CB is a makeshift solution (natural LB). Varela-Cáceres-Olivera-Sanabria back four is 4th-choice pairing.
- Bielsa's press is heat-vulnerable. Identical Miami conditions vs KSA produced visible fatigue after 60'.
- Emotional volatility — Bielsa's tactical fouls in midfield create card accumulation risk.
Confirmed XI (4-2-3-1)
Muslera; Varela, Cáceres, Olivera, Sanabria; Bentancur, Ugarte; Canobbio, Valverde, Maxi Araújo; Viñas
Key changes from MD1: Núñez DROPPED (anonymous, 8 first-half touches, hooked 46'). Viñas starts at #9. Olivera shifts to CB. Sanabria at LB. Canobbio starts in attack. No Giménez despite 100th cap milestone — on bench.
2. Cape Verde — Team Profile
Basic Info
- FIFA Ranking: #67 | Manager: Pedro Leitão Brito "Bubista" (POR/CPV, since 2017) | WC History: Debutants (MD1: D 0-0 ESP) | Form: D 0-0 ESP, unbeaten in 5 competitive | Base Camp: Tampa FL (Waters Sportsplex, ~280 mi bus to Miami)
- Market Value: €54.5m | Avg Age: 29.7 | Tier: 4 (CAF debutants, AFCON 2023 QF)
Tactical Identity (4-5-1 / 4-1-4-1)
- Drops into deep low block out of possession. Compact defensive lines, "wafer-thin" space between lines (The Athletic). Transition-based attack through pace trident (Cabral-Mendes-Livramento).
- MD1 vs ESP: 30% possession, 3 shots, 0 SoT, 0 goals conceded. Held FIFA #2 to 0 goals. Pico Lopes MOTM (15 def contrib, 10 clearances, 3 blocks). Vozinha 7 saves.
- Bubista is pragmatic and defensive-first. Will NOT chase. A draw is GOLD (2pts + KSA MD3 = survival).
Key Players
| Player | Club | Position | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vozinha | Chaves (POR) | GK | 40 years old. 7 saves vs ESP. Tournament breakout star (45K → 14M Instagram followers). Mom flying in for MD2. Finding 7 hot GK: 15-20% heroics rate. |
| Roberto "Pico" Lopes | Shamrock Rovers | CB | MD1 MOTM. 15 defensive contributions vs ESP. AFCON pedigree. Elite low-block anchor. |
| Diney Borges | — | CB | AFCON QF CB partner. Forms "elite CB partnership" with Lopes. Aerial dominance. |
| Ryan Mendes | — | RW/Captain | 36, 94 caps, 22 intl goals (all-time top scorer). Veteran leader. Set-piece threat. |
| Dailon Livramento | — | ST | Singleton striker. Scored 0 vs ESP (0 SoT). CPV's only #9. Counter outlet. |
| Jovane Cabral | Lazio | LW | Pace on the counter. Fitness test (lateral muscle issue). If out, Benchimol replaces. |
Strengths
- Validated deep low block: held FIFA #2 Spain to 0 goals / 2.29 xG conceded / 0 finishes. The structure works at WC level.
- Vozinha is in the form of his life — 40yo debutant with family in the stands. Emotional + physical peak.
- AFCON quarterfinal pedigree (Finding 3): not minnows. Elite CB partnership (Lopes + Borges).
- Conservation-friendly manager: Bubista will absorb and wait. Asymmetric motivation favors CPV (draw = 2pts + manageable MD3).
- Disciplined (0 URU yellows MD1 vs KSA, 1 CPV yellow vs ESP). Won't give away cheap fouls.
Weaknesses
- Near-zero attacking threat: 0 SoT vs ESP. 3 shots total. If they go behind, they have no plan B.
- Singleton striker (Livramento) with no service. Cabral's fitness doubt reduces counter pace.
- If Vozinha has a normal game (not hero-level), CPV's block is breachable by quality opposition.
- Age profile: Mendes 36, Vozinha 40, Monteiro 30. Late-game fatigue possible (but mitigated by low-block energy conservation).
- Set-piece defending vs URU's aerial CBs (Giménez on bench as sub).
Predicted XI (4-5-1) — Unchanged from MD1
Vozinha; Moreira, Pico Lopes, Diney Borges, Sidny Cabral; Lenini; Mendes, Laros Duarte, Monteiro, J. Cabral (or Benchimol); Livramento
Note: Confirmed lineup from Oddschecker shows minor naming variations (Semedo, Rodrigues listed) but Bubista said "unchanged side." CPV structure is fixed: deep 4-5-1.
3. Head-to-Head Record
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| — | — | No prior senior meetings. First-ever encounter. |
- No footballing history between the nations. Two prior meetings in handball (curious footnote).
- Neutrality: no psychological advantage for either side.
4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)
| Factor | Value | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Stadium | Hard Rock Stadium (open-air, canopy only) | Full heat penalty applies |
| Temperature at kickoff | 28–32°C (82–90°F) | ABOVE 28°C threshold |
| Heat index | 33–39°C (92–102°F) | Severe — degrades pressing |
| Humidity | 80–89% | Saturated; sweat doesn't evaporate |
| Precipitation | 30–60% (T-storm tail-end) | Pitch may be slippery |
| Lightning risk | ELEVATED (NWS 60% before 8 PM) | Possible delay |
| Altitude | Sea level | No effect |
| Roof | Open-air (translucent canopy, field exposed) | No climate control |
Sources: NWS Miami (4:53 AM EDT Jun 21), AccuWeather Hard Rock POI (5:37 AM), SatMeteo (Jun 20 10:22 AM). Three-source reconciliation.
Impact Analysis
- Bielsa's press degrades after ~60 minutes (validated MD1 vs KSA in identical venue/conditions). URU's 25-shot MD1 performance had clear second-half fatigue. +5-8% to draw/CPV.
- Hydration breaks likely at ~30' and ~75' (FIFA protocol for >32°C). These disrupt rhythm and favor the defending team.
- CPV's low block is heat-resistant — they defend in a compact shape and don't press. Heat actively helps them (URU presses less = CPV defends less).
- Rain risk = lower bounce, more slip, more set-pieces. Slightly benefits both defenses; URU set-piece advantage partially neutralized.
- Lightning delay risk is non-trivial but unlikely to change the tactical fundamentals — just adds stoppage time.
- Combined Finding 11 + Finding 12 (heat × style): Bielsa's pressing identity + must-win urgency + 30°C+ heat = the "favorite under heat trap" that has burned teams throughout WC 2026 (POR-DRC, BEL-EGY, ESP-CPV, KSA-URU). Net: +6% to draw from heat alone.
5. Referee Analysis
Espen Eskås (Norway, 37) — First senior World Cup assignment
| Statistic | Career (146-281 matches) | Tournament Discounted (×0.75) |
|---|---|---|
| Yellow cards | 3.42 Y/gm | 2.57 Y/gm |
| Red cards | 0.04–0.10 R/gm | 0.03–0.08 R/gm |
| Penalties | 0.21 P/gm (career); 0.38 P/gm CL-only | ~15-25% band |
| Fouls | 20.6 F/gm | ~15.5 F/gm |
Style: Moderate-high strictness (3.4 Y/gm is on the strict end of UEFA elite). Patient early, card bunches after 60'. Clean reputation, no controversies. Professional continental archetype — calls what he sees.
Key notes:
- Norwegian = UEFA → fully neutral for CONMEBOL (URU) vs CAF (CPV). No confederation sympathy.
- First senior WC match — slight "new-referee" uncertainty, but FIFA trusted him with U-17 WC final + Olympic bronze medal match.
- CL-only pen rate (0.38 P/gm) is notably high but small sample (8 matches). Career rate (0.21) is moderate. Present as a band, not a verdict (Finding 15).
- VAR intervention probability: ~25-30%. Moderate — will use for factual corrections.
Prediction
- 3 yellow cards (modal), range 2-4. URU emotional under Bielsa = 1-2 yellows. CPV disciplined = 0-1. Split likely 2-1 URU.
- 0 reds (small chance of 1 if second-yellow late).
- 15-25% chance of ≥1 penalty. If awarded, tilts URU's scoring mix (attacking team, more box presence). But CPV's compact block limits clear-cut pen situations.
6. Key Tactical Battles
6.1 — Valverde-Araújo Creation vs CPV's Wafer-Thin Block
The decisive matchup. URU's quality resides almost entirely in Valverde (Real Madrid, Ballon d'Or nominee) and Araújo (MD1 MOTM, 1G vs KSA). CPV's block held FIFA #2 Spain to 0 goals from 27 shots. The question is whether URU's double-creator can do what Spain's four-creator setup couldn't. CPV's advantage: they've already proven the block works. URU's advantage: Valverde is a more direct, vertical threat than Spain's pedestrian build-up. Expect Valverde to play higher than his usual #8 role (per his own "touch the ball more" admission), running at the block from deep. Araújo's width and crossing will test Pico Lopes + Diney Borges in the air.
6.2 — Viñas (URU) vs Vozinha + Lopes (CPV) — The Finishing Test
Viñas is URU's #9 by default (Núñez dropped, Suárez not in squad). He's scored 12 goals in 58 Uruguay caps — decent but not elite. His MD1 contribution was an assist (header saved, Araújo scored rebound), not a goal. Against Vozinha in god-mode and Lopes (MOTM vs ESP), Viñas needs to be clinical from limited chances. If URU generate 20+ shots again but Viñas can't convert, the sterile domination scenario materializes. This is the Finding 17 (4th flag: no specialist striker in squad) battleground.
6.3 — Bielsa's Press vs Heat and Counter-Transitions
Bielsa WILL press regardless of conditions — his philosophy doesn't allow sitting back. But MD1 proved the press degrades after 60' in 30°C+ Miami heat. CPV's transition threat (Cabral-Mendes pace) is limited but not zero. If URU commit numbers forward and lose the ball in midfield, the Olivera-at-CB channel is exploitable. Bentancur + Ugarte screening is critical. If either is caught upfield, CPV have a 1v1 against a makeshift CB pairing.
7. Scoreline Prediction
Scenario Distribution
| Score | Probability | Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| URU 2-0 | 22% | Early goal breaks CPV's block confidence. Araújo + Valverde too much quality. Block opens, second goal follows. Most likely "quality gap" outcome. |
| URU 1-0 | 20% | Tight, 1-goal URU win. Valverde or Araújo scores once. CPV block holds for 70+ minutes but eventually cracks. Vozinha keeps it to 1. |
| 1-1 Draw | 17% | Vozinha heroics + URU sterile domination. CPV counter goal (Mendes/Livramento) against the run of play. Classic "favorite vs low block" draw pattern. |
| URU 2-1 | 14% | Entertaining, back-and-forth. CPV counter scores but URU have too much quality. Both teams score — implied xG >2.0. |
| 0-0 Draw | 10% | ESP-CPV repeat. Vozinha monster game + URU profligate + heat kills Bielsa's press. Frustration boils over. |
| URU 3-0 | 8% | CPV block cracks early (goal inside 20'), floodgates open. Bielsa subs (De Arrascaeta, Pellistri) add to the lead. Limited by Finding 22 exclusion (deep block + veteran GK → 4+ margins capped at 5-8%). |
| Other | 9% | CPV 1-0 (Vozinha monster + counter goal), URU 3-1, 2-2, etc. |
Win Probability Summary
| Outcome | Probability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| URU Win | 62% | Naive 72% → heat -3% → deep block + Vozinha -4% → Núñez dropped/no elite #9 -2% → Finding 17 sterile flags -3% → must-win urgency +2% → 62% |
| Draw | 26% | Baseline 18% → heat × low block compound +3% → Vozinha heroics (15-20%) +3% → Finding 17 sterile domination +2% → CPV conservation-friendly (draw = gold) +2% → cap at 28% → 26% |
| CPV Win | 12% | Naive 10% → AFCON pedigree +2% → Vozinha validated +1% → Cabral doubt -1% → 12% |
Finding 22 check: Blowout mode EXCLUDED. CPV plays deep 4-5-1 + Vozinha (>50 caps, veteran GK). Reduce 4+ goal margins to 5-8% (applied: URU 3-0 at 8%, no 4+ in top scorelines). Draw raised to 26% (>20%).
Finding 17 (Sterile Domination Screen) — FIRES on URU (ball-dominant team):
- Flag 1 (no finisher): Viñas unproven at WC level. FIRES.
- Flag 2 (wrong mechanism): Bielsa's possession vs set low block with aerial CBs. FIRES.
- Flag 3 (overload without penetration): MD1 25 shots → 1 goal. FIRES.
- Flag 4 (no specialist striker in squad): Núñez dropped, Suárez not in squad, Viñas = only #9. FIRES.
- 4/4 flags → raise draw band +5-8%. Applied +5% (conservative, partially mitigated by Valverde-Araújo individual quality).
8. Who Scores
Uruguay
| Rank | Player | Position | Probability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maximiliano Araújo | LW/AM | 38% | MD1 MOTM (1G, 5 chances). Bielsa's main creative outlet. Scores from wide runs. In-form and trusted. First-choice on set-piece deliveries. |
| 2 | Federico Valverde | CM/AM | 30% | Real Madrid engine. Playing higher per Bielsa. Star-as-creator (Finding 10): may ASSIST rather than score. Penalty taker likely. Elite quality differential. |
| 3 | Federico Viñas | ST | 18% | Unproven #9. 12 goals in 58 caps. Substitution risk >30% if anonymous by 60' (Finding 13 — Bielsa hooked Núñez at 46' MD1 for the same issue). If subbed, probability drops to 0%. |
| 4 | Rodrigo Bentancur | CDM | 8% | Late-arriving runner from deep. Finding 19: deep CM scoring in low-event matches. Also a penalty candidate. |
| 5 | José María Giménez | CB (sub) | 5% | 100th cap milestone. If brought on, set-piece header threat. Finding 7: CB scoring from corners (validated: Al-Amri MD1). |
Cape Verde
| Rank | Player | Position | Probability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dailon Livramento | ST | 12% | Singleton striker. Only #9. 0 SoT vs ESP — low base rate. But if CPV score, it's likely from a counter where he's the finisher. |
| 2 | Ryan Mendes | RW/Captain | 10% | 36, 94 caps, 22 intl goals. All-time top scorer. Set-piece or late counter. Experience advantage in big moments. |
| 3 | Jamiro Monteiro | CM | 8% | Energy from midfield. Late runner into the box (Finding 19). Has scored at international level. |
| 4 | Jovane Cabral | LW | 7% | Pace on counter IF fit. Fitness doubt reduces from ~10% to 7%. If he doesn't start, this probability transfers to Benchimol (~5%). |
| 5 | Roberto "Pico" Lopes | CB | 5% | Set-piece header from corners. Finding 7: CB scoring from set pieces (validated tournament-wide). AFCON aerial pedigree. |
9. Match Flow Projection
| Timeframe | Expected Pattern |
|---|---|
| 0–15' | URU high press, CPV deep 4-5-1 block. URU dominate possession (~65%). Few clear chances — Bielsa's system builds pressure but CPV's compactness absorbs early probes. |
| 15–30' | URU most dangerous pre-heat phase. Valverde + Araújo start finding pockets. Valverde runs at the block from deep. Viñas makes decoy runs. If URU score here, block may crack. Hydration break ~30'. |
| 30–45' | Peak URU pressure. Corners and set pieces probe CPV's aerial defense (Lopes + Borges strong). Viñas needs to be clinical. If 0-0 at HT, CPV confidence grows. |
| HT | If URU lead: Bielsa may throttle slightly (but won't park the bus). CPV must open up → URU counters. If 0-0: CPV in the driver's seat. Vozinha factor rises. If CPV lead (shock): URU desperation, Bielsa subs early. |
| 45–60' | Heat degradation zone. URU pressing visibly drops (validated MD1). CPV start to see counter opportunities. Bentancur/Ugarte screening becomes critical. Bielsa may make early subs (Canobbio → fresh legs). |
| 60–75' | Bielsa triple-sub window (Finding 21: late-goal explosion scenario). De la Cruz, Pellistri, De Arrascaeta (if fit) bring fresh legs vs tiring CPV block. If CPV still level, this is URU's best chance to break through. But also the highest-risk period for CPV counters. |
| 75–90' | If URU lead: game management. If level: mounting desperation. Vozinha time — the 40yo keeper has shown he thrives in chaos. Late fouls + Eskås card bunch (after 60' per his profile). Expect 5-8 minutes added (heat + VAR). |
| 90+ | Late drama possible. Finding 19: deep-arriving CM or late runner. If 0-0, the draw probability at this point is ~40%. |
10. Methodology Notes
Findings Applied:
- Finding 1 (Draw epidemic): Draw calibrated at 26% — above 22% baseline. The "favorite vs low block" pattern has produced draws at ~45% tournament-wide.
- Finding 3 (Continental pedigree): CPV = AFCON 2023 QF. NOT treated as minnows. Validated by MD1 0-0 vs ESP.
- Finding 7 (Hot GK): Vozinha at 15-20% heroics rate. 4th tournament GK hero (Vozinha, Beach, Shobeir, Al-Owais). Modeled explicitly.
- Finding 7 (CB set-piece): Giménez (5%) and Lopes (5%) in Who Scores. Validated by Al-Amri goal MD1.
- Finding 10 (Star-as-creator): Valverde modeled at 30% scorer + high assist probability. Araújo modeled as primary scorer + creator.
- Finding 11 (Physical & Environmental): Full section. Heat >28°C, open-air venue. +6% to draw from heat alone. Match-day NWS forecast with timestamp used.
- Finding 13 (Substitution risk): Viñas at >30% sub risk if anonymous by 60'. Bielsa precedent: hooked Núñez at 46' MD1.
- Finding 15 (Penalty band): Eskås pen rate presented as 15-25% band, NOT a verdict. CL rate (0.38) treated as upper bound only.
- Finding 17 (Sterile Domination): FULL SCREEN applied to URU (projected ball-dominant team). 4/4 flags fire. +5% to draw.
- Finding 19 (Low-event late-winner): Bentancur (8%) and Monteiro (8%) modeled as deep-arriving CMs in low-event scenarios.
- Finding 20 (Double-underestimate): Does NOT fire. CPV avg age 29.7 is not an "ageing spine" (no 38+ CM engine like Croatia's Modrić 40).
- Finding 22 (Blowout exclusion): EXCLUDED. CPV deep 4-5-1 + Vozinha (>50 caps veteran GK). 4+ goal margins capped at 5-8%. URU 3-0 at 8%, no 4+.
- Finding 12 (Conservation): URU = 0% discount (Bielsa aggressive + must-win). CPV = conservation-friendly (draw = gold) but this is the underdog's natural state, not an overlay.
Doc-5 Decision Graph Resolution:
- Step 1: URU need-to-win (ESP next = terminal if draw). CPV golden-draw (KSA next = manageable). Asymmetric urgency.
- Step 2: Bielsa aggressive = 0% conservation. Bubista pragmatic = CPV sits deep regardless.
- Step 3: Heat × style = URU press degrades +6% draw. CPV low block = heat-resistant.
- Step 4: Heat × defense = URU attack + CPV deep block + Vozinha = CLASSIC DRAW TRAP. +4% draw.
- Step 5: Bielsa volatile (risk of tactical fouls/exposed transitions). Bubista disciplined. URU execution probability LOWER than CPV's.
- Step 6: Synthesis → URU 62%, Draw 26%, CPV 12%.
Source gaps: None. All categories covered (scout ✓, team-news-uru ✓, team-news-cpv ✓, referee ✓, weather ✓, confirmed lineups ✓, canonical profiles ✓, MD1 post-event reviews ✓).
11. Metrics
[match]
code = "uru-vs-cpv"
date = "2026-06-21"
kickoff_cest = "00:00"
group = "H"
venue = "miami"
referee = "eskas"
[win_probability]
favorite = "Uruguay"
win = 62
draw = 26
loss = 12
[scorelines]
"2-0" = 22
"1-0" = 20
"1-1" = 17
"2-1" = 14
"0-0" = 10
[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Araujo", probability = 38 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Livramento", probability = 12 }
[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0
finding_13_fires = true
finding_16_age_decline = ""
penalty_band = "15-25%"
projected_xg = 1.6
[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 62
yellow_cards = "2-4"
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "15-25%"
Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: Sports Mole, Khelnow, Sports Illustrated, TyC Sports, Yahoo Sports/The Football Faithful, A Nação (Cape Verde), NWS Miami, AccuWeather, SatMeteo, FootyMetrics, Transfermarkt, Wikipedia, footemxtra, ESPN. MD1 post-event reviews: KSA-URU, ESP-CPV. Source archive: sources/matches/uru-vs-cpv/