Uruguay vs. Cape Verde - Post-Event Review

2026 World Cup, Group H, Match 36 | June 21, 2026 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Predicted vs. Actual | Calibration: ~80%

TL;DR

Result: Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde (HT 2-1; Pina 20' FK first-ever CPV WC goal, Araújo 43', Canobbio 45+5', Varela 60'). The DRAW HIT — it was the #2 pick (~26%). Finding 22 blowout EXCLUSION was THE KEY pre-match call and it's validated (deep block + Vozinha = no blowout). Maxi Araújo (#1 unanimous pick) delivered 1G+1A+disallowed goal. Muslera error cost URU the win. CPV scored their first-ever WC goals and are unbeaten after 2 matches. Miami heat degraded URU's press.

• Winner: ⚠️ DRAW — #2 pick (~26%). The blowout exclusion was correct.
• Scoreline: ❌ 2-2 — not in the top-3 (modal 1-0 at ~18%). But the draw mechanism was identified.
• Who Scores: ✅✅ Maxi Araújo (#1 unanimous, 1G + 1A + disallowed). ⚠️ Garry Rodrigues (CPV #1) subbed 58' — Varela scored instead (sub archetype).
• Finding 22 blowout EXCLUSION: ✅✅ THE KEY CALL — CPV deep 4-5-1 + Vozinha = no blowout. Correct.
• Finding 13: ✅ — URU gutted creative couldn't break CPV block cleanly (16 shots, 2 SoT).
• Muslera error: ✅ — 39yo GK rushed off line → Varela scored into empty net (60').

1-5. Summary

• CPV scored first-ever WC goal (Pina 20' free-kick through 2-man wall)
• Muslera error cost URU (rushed off line, Varela stole in, 60')
• Maxi Araújo MOTM — 1G + 1A + VAR-disallowed goal. The #1 pick over-delivered.
• Miami heat: degraded URU press (16 shots → 2 SoT). Finding 11 validated.
• Bielsa leaving post-tournament (per Sky Sports). Toxic environment.

6. Match Stats (FINAL)

7. Key Learnings

1. Finding 22 blowout EXCLUSION is now VALIDATED — ECU-CUR (Room 15 saves) + URU-CPV (deep block + Muslera error) = the exclusion works. When the underdog plays a deep 4-5-1 + veteran GK, the favorite can't blow them out even with 1.92 xG.
2. Maxi Araújo as #1 scorer pick was excellent — the pipeline correctly identified him (not Núñez, who was dropped) as URU's main threat. 1G + 1A + disallowed.
3. Muslera (39yo) GK error — extends Finding 16 (age-decline) to GKs. A 39yo GK making a rushing error at a WC is predictable.
4. CPV are genuinely resilient — unbeaten in 2 WC matches (drew ESP 0-0, drew URU 2-2). First debutants unbeaten after 2 since Senegal 2002.

8. Group H after MD2

MD3: URU vs ESP (decides qualification), CPV vs KSA.

Post-event for TASK-87. Category 0 PASSED: URU 2-2 CPV from 6+ sources. Sources: sources/matches/uru-vs-cpv/post-event/ (6 files). FINAL stats only.