Switzerland vs Algeria - Pure Football Analysis (GLM-5 Turbo)

2026 World Cup, R32 (Round of 32) | July 3, 2026 | BC Place, Vancouver

Kickoff: 05:00 CEST | Referee: Yael Falcón Pérez (Argentina)

TL;DR

SUI 56% to advance (43% in 90') — Embolo #1 (18%), Manzambi #1 heat check (16%); Mahrez #1 ALG (16%), milestone-motivated but ALG defense leaks. Open, both-sides-score knockout.

• Prediction: SUI 2-1 (20%), 1-1 draw (18%), SUI 1-0 (13%), ALG 2-1 (12%), SUI 3-1 (8%)
• WDM says near-coin-flip (fav_share 0.61, SUI 38% anchor) but ALG's 7-GA defense + climate shock + SUI venue familiarity push SUI to 43% in 90'.
• Embolo is the talisman: 10 goals in 13 internationals, penalty taker #2. Manzambi (3 WC goals, U21 heater) is the equal-scoring threat.
• Mahrez at 35 = red-hot (2 goals MD3), not age-declined (Finding 16 threshold 38+). First WC goals at 35. Motivated for potentially last WC match.
• No conservation (R32 knockout, both must-win). No heat penalty (roof closed, 18-20°C inside). Falcón Pérez: 2-3 yellows tournament-lenient, ~25% pen band.
• Petković knows SUI inside-out (coached them 2014-2021) — tactical wildcard favors ALG, capped by WDM deviation limit.
• Watch: ALG defensive fragility. 7 goals conceded in 3 group games. Zidane shaky (4 conceded vs ARG). If SUI scores first, the floodgates scenario is real (bench explosion proven vs BIH).

1. Switzerland — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #19
• Manager: Murat Yakin (Swiss, age 51, since Aug 2021). Pragmatic, experienced-led, calm under pressure. Euro 2024 QF exit.
• WC History: 6th straight appearance. 1 loss in last 17 group games at WC/Euros (W7 D8). First group-top since 2006.
• Form (tournament): W-D-W — beat QAT 1-1 (MD1, profligate), beat BIH 4-1 (MD2, bench explosion), beat CAN 2-1 (MD3, Vargas+Manzambi goals). 7 pts, Group B winners.
• Base camp: San Diego, CA (Fairmont Grand Del Mar). ~27 days in North America, fully acclimatized.
• Squad value: €282M (Transfermarkt)

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3)

• Ball-dominant, press-resistant spine (Xhaka + Freuler double pivot, 91.5% pass accuracy MD1 — highest in Group B). Wing-backs step into midfield.
• Front three (Embolo + wingers) lead the press; overload final third with width from Rodriguez + Widmer overlaps.
• Key limitation: profligacy — created 26 shots MD1 but only 1 goal (Embolo penalty). Improved since (Manzambi emergence, Vargas scoring).
• Set-piece danger: Xhaka delivery, Rodriguez free-kicks, Akanji/Elvedi aerial targets.
• Avg XI age 30y 86d — oldest Swiss WC XI ever (Opta). Veteran spine (Xhaka 138 caps, Rodriguez 138, Freuler 88, Akanji 81).

Key Players

Strengths

• Deep veteran spine — tournament-tested, calm under pressure (survived 90+3' equalizer MD1, still won the group).
• Proven bench explosion: SUI-BIH triple sub at 71' (Manzambi/Vargas/Sow) → 4 goals in 23 min. Manzambi, Vargas, Xhaka all scorers.
• Set-piece delivery (Xhaka + Rodriguez) against aerially vulnerable opponents.
• Venue familiarity: already played and won at BC Place (2-1 vs CAN, Jun 24).

Weaknesses

• Profligacy in front of goal (26 shots → 1 goal MD1). Ndoye wasted 4+ big chances MD1.
• Mental fragility late — conceded 90+3' equalizer vs QAT from set piece after dropping intensity.
• RB cover thin: Jaquez OUT (muscle), Widmer returning from hip scare. If Widmer goes down, only Zakaria/Muheim as emergency RB.
• Xhaka + Zakaria both on 1Y — one more card each = R16 suspension. Petković will try to bait Xhaka.
• Oldest XI in the tournament — potential fatigue in extra time.

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1)

                    Kobel
   Widmer  —  Elvedi  —  Akanji  —  R. Rodriguez
                  Freuler  —  Xhaka (c)
   Ndoye  —  Manzambi  —  Vargas
                  Embolo

Bench: Keller, Mvogo, Amenda, Cömert, Muheim, Aebischer, Fassnacht, Jashari, Rieder, Sow, Zakaria, Amdouni, Itten, Okafor.

2. Algeria — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #37 (per scout brief "#37-ish" — estimated from FIFA pre-tournament ranking)
• Manager: Vladimir Petković (Swiss, since 2023). Pragmatic, possession-based, aggressive HT subs. Coached Switzerland 2014-2021 — knows Xhaka, Akanji, Rodriguez, Freuler inside out.
• WC History: First WC since 2014 (broke 12-year drought). 2019 AFCON winners — continental pedigree (NOT a minnow).
• Form (tournament): L-W-D — lost ARG 0-3 (MD1, outclassed), beat JOR 2-1 (MD2, comeback from set pieces), drew AUT 3-3 (MD3, Mahrez 2 goals). 4 pts, Group J 3rd — qualified as best 3rd-placed.
• Base camp: Lawrence, Kansas (Rock Chalk Park, Univ of Kansas). ~24 days in North America, fully acclimatized.
• Squad value: €150M (Transfermarkt)

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3)

• Mahrez focal point on the right — free role, set-piece taker, dribble creator. 91.3% pass accuracy (highest in tournament per SRF).
• Gouiri as #9 finisher. Aouar as #10 creator (2 assists MD3). Chaibi/Maza provide width + energy.
• Aggressive pressing triggers: Mahrez + Chaibi press opposition FBs high.
• Petković makes aggressive HT subs — second-half Algeria is usually better (MD2: Benbouali sub scored equalizer, then Gouiri winner).
• Set-piece emphasis: 2 corner goals vs JOR (Mahrez delivery).

Key Players

Strengths

• Mahrez in career-best tournament form — creator + scorer + set-piece specialist.
• Petković's intimate knowledge of SUI's spine (coached Xhaka, Akanji, Rodriguez 7 years). Tactical preparation edge.
• Set-piece weapon: 2 corner goals vs JOR from Mahrez delivery. SUI conceded late set-piece header MD1 (Khoukhi 90+3').
• Aouar emerging as elite #10 (2 assists MD3, pass tempo).
• No suspensions — clean slate. Full intensity available.
• AFCON 2019 winners — continental pedigree. Not a minnow.

Weaknesses

• Defensive fragility: 7 goals conceded in 3 group games. Mandi (34) + Bensebaini CB pairing lacks cohesion. Zidane shaky.
• Zidane GK inconsistency: 4 conceded vs ARG MD1, rotated out MD3 (Benbot conceded 3). Neither GK convincing.
• Amoura OUT (thigh) — pace-in-behind gone. Single absence but removes the transition weapon.
• Travel disadvantage: 4.5 hr flight (vs SUI 3.5 hr), climate shock (Kansas 30°C+ → Vancouver 14°C), first visit to BC Place.
• MD1 blowout (0-3 vs ARG) may reveal fragility vs elite pressing.

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1)

                    Zidane
Belghali  —  Mandi  —  Bensebaini  —  Aït-Nouri
              Bentaleb  —  Aouar
   Chaïbi  —  Maza  —  Mahrez (c)
                  Gouiri

Bench: Benbot, Mastil, Hadjam, Tougai, Belaïd, Zerrouki, Boudaoui, Hadj Moussa, Boulbina, Benbouali, Ghedjemis.

3. Head-to-Head Record

Aggregate: SUI 4–1 ALG. No competitive meetings ever. H2H is 40-year-old friendlies with unrecognizable squads — essentially meaningless for prediction.

The real H2H: Petković coached SUI for 7 years (2014-2021). He built the core Yakin now coaches (Xhaka, Rodriguez, Akanji, Freuler all played under him). This is a tactical-familiarity edge for ALG.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis

F11 weather penalty: FULLY NEUTRALIZED. Roof closed, interior ~18-20°C, no heat stress, no wind, no rain on pitch. Optimal conditions for both teams. Finding 11 does not fire for heat/travel.

Travel asymmetry (mild): SUI has a tangible edge — they played and won at BC Place 8 days ago (MD3 vs CAN, 2-1). They know the grass surface, stadium acoustics, lighting, and bench placement. ALG visits for the first time. ALG also crosses climate zones (Kansas 30°C+ humid → Vancouver 14°C damp), a 16-19°C drop that may slow muscle activation in the first 30-45 minutes. Estimated: +2pt SUI from venue familiarity + +1pt from ALG climate shock = +3pt combined.

5. Referee Analysis

Yael Falcón Pérez (Argentina, age 37). CONMEBOL referee. Physical education teacher and lifeguard outside football.

Career Statistics

Tournament Pattern

Falcón Pérez has been dramatically more lenient at WC 2026 than his career rates suggest. Career 5.35 Y/game → tournament 1.0 Y/game (0.19× career). The 20-25% tournament leniency discount is validated (and then some). This is his 3rd WC match — unusual 3-match rotation for a referee.

Confedederal Neutrality

CONMEBOL referee for UEFA (SUI) vs CAF (ALG) — no confederation conflict. Clean assignment.

VAR Note

VAR appointment not yet public. Falcón Pérez has no documented over-reliance on or avoidance of VAR. Normal usage expected.

Prediction: 2-3 yellows, 0 reds, ~25% penalty chance

• Most likely 1-2Y to SUI (Xhaka discipline risk — Petković will bait him), 1Y to ALG (emotional moments).
• Career 0.34 pen/game is HIGH but 0/2 in this WC. Tournament regression to leniency. Present as ~25% probability of ≥1 pen — one input to SUI scoring mix, NOT a verdict.
• Confederation sympathy: neutral (CONMEBOL for UEFA vs CAF). No lean.

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 Xhaka-Freuler vs Aouar-Bentaleb (Midfield Control)

The game's engine room. Xhaka (138 caps, deep playmaker) + Freuler (88 caps, engine) vs Aouar (2 assists MD3, #10 creator) + Bentaleb (64 caps, veteran DM). Xhaka's long diagonals vs Aouar's through balls. Slight edge to SUI on experience and pressing resistance, but Aouar's MD3 form (2 assists) makes him the tournament's breakout #10 alongside Manzambi. If Aouar finds space between the lines, ALG can hurt SUI. Freuler must shadow him.

6.2 Mahrez vs Widmer/Rodriguez (Wing Dominance)

Mahrez on the right vs SUI's left side (Rodriguez LB, 33yo). Mahrez's dribble + cut-inside + free-kick vs Rodriguez's experience but declining pace. Mahrez had "many freedoms" all tournament — he drifts inside to find space. Xhaka + Freuler must double up when Mahrez inverts. If Mahrez gets 1v1 with Rodriguez, SUI are vulnerable. This is the single most dangerous individual matchup.

6.3 Embolo vs Mandi-Bensebaini (Center Channel)

Embolo (link play + finishing) vs ALG's CB pairing that's conceded 7 goals in 3 games. Mandi (34, Lille) is slow to turn; Bensebaini (30, BVB) is more mobile but prone to positional errors. Embolo's movement between the CBs will test this pairing. Embolo draws fouls and cards (validated SUI-BIH: his run drew the 80' red on Muharemović). If Embolo can pin Bensebaini and create space for Manzambi/Ndoye runs, SUI's attack unlocks.

6.4 Set Pieces vs Set-Piece Vulnerability

Both teams are dangerous from set pieces (SUI: Xhaka delivery + Akanji/Elvedi aerial; ALG: Mahrez delivery + Gouiri/Bensebaini aerial). Both have conceded from set pieces (SUI: Khoukhi 90+3' MD1; ALG: 7 GA includes set-piece goals). This is a high set-piece goal probability matchup. Finding 6 (CB set-piece scoring) fires for both Akanji and Bensebaini. Expect at least 1 set-piece goal.

6.5 Petković vs Yakin (Manager Battle)

Petković knows SUI's spine intimately — 7 years coaching Xhaka, Akanji, Rodriguez, Freuler. He knows their pressing triggers, set-piece routines, and defensive vulnerabilities. Yakin knows Petković's tendencies (aggressive HT subs, Mahrez free role). Slight tactical edge to Petković on preparation, neutralized by Yakin's familiarity with his former boss's habits. Net-net: roughly even. Petković's mind games (baiting Xhaka into a card) are the real wildcard.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution

Step 0 — WDM Baseline Anchor (§6.6)

Raw Factors:

Weighted Composite:

SUI score = 3.0×0.653 + 1.0×0.563 + 1.0×0.585 + 1.0×0.524 + 0.5×0.636
          = 1.959  +  0.563  +  0.585  +  0.524  +  0.318
          = 3.949

ALG score = 6.5 - 3.949 = 2.551

fav_share = 3.949 / 6.5 = 0.6075

Baseline Probabilities:

fav_baseline = 28 + (0.6075 - 0.50) × 90 = 28 + 9.68 = 37.7 → 38%
draw        = 22% (fav_share 0.60-0.70 → 20-25% per R32-4; both can score → mid-band)
dog         = 100 - 38 - 22 = 40%

WDM ANCHOR: SUI 38% / Draw 22% / ALG 40%

The WDM says this is a near-coin-flip with slight SUI edge. The moderate fav_share (0.61) means the favorite's advantage is small — the draw probability (22%) and the underdog's chance (40%) together exceed the favorite's 90'-minute win% (38%). This is characteristic of tight knockouts where the favorite's edge manifests in ET/pens, not in 90 minutes.

R32-1 deviation cap applies: fav_share < 0.65 → cap total positive deviation from the WDM at +5pt. I will not exceed this cap.

Step 1 — Group Context (Knockout Urgency)

• Stage: R32 knockout. Win-or-go-home. No conservation for either side.
• R16 reward: Winner faces POR or CRO (both Tier 1-2). Neither is a gimme — full motivation for both.
• SUI path: Won Group B (7 pts). Group winners → face 3rd-placed team (ALG). Favorable draw.
• ALG path: 3rd in Group J (4 pts). Hardest path — faces group winner. Underdog mentality, nothing to lose.
• Yellow card risk: SUI have Zakaria (1Y from MD1) + Xhaka (1Y from MD3). One more card each = R16 ban. ALG have zero cards. Petković will actively bait Xhaka. This adds tactical tension.
• Finding 23/24: No GD-chase mode (this is knockout, not group). No bracket optimization needed (R32 is fixed bracket). No draw-suffices (must win).
• Output: Must-win for both. Finding 12 = 0%. No conservation discount.

Step 2 — Conservation (Finding 12)

SUI: Tier 2 contender, pragmatic manager (Yakin). But this is R32 (must-win knockout). Yakin has shown he goes for it in knockouts (Euro 2024 QF run, aggressive subs vs BIH). Finding 12 = 0%.

ALG: Tier 2 underdog, nothing to lose. First knockout since 2014. Full motivation. Finding 12 = 0%.

Empirical weight adjustment (×1.5 per tuning experiment): 0% × 1.5 = 0%. No change.

Step 3 — Weather × Style (Finding 11)

• BC Place roof CLOSED. Interior ~18-20°C. No heat stress. No wind. No rain on pitch.
• Finding 11 fully neutralized. Neither team's style is degraded.
• 0% adjustment. Weather is a non-factor.

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack

• Finding 11 neutralized → no heat + low-block + hot-GK compound to evaluate.
• ALG does NOT play a deep low block (Petković uses 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 open shapes with Mahrez free role).
• Zidane is NOT a confirmed-form hot GK (no tournament MOTMs, no WC shootout pedigree). ×0.25 reputation weight per calibration → negligible impact.
• No draw-weather compound fires. 0% adjustment.

Step 5 — Temperament

• Yakin (SUI): Pragmatic, experienced, calm. Doesn't panic. Proven in KO (Euro 2024 QF). Sub pattern: measured but impactful (SUI-BIH 71' triple sub → 4 goals). Will manage the game intelligently. Slight tendency to start slow (0-0 HT in 2 of 3 group games).
• Petković (ALG): Aggressive, tactical, knows SUI intimately. Makes aggressive HT subs. His second-half teams are better (MD2: HT subs produced both goals). Mind-game specialist (will bait Xhaka).
• Net assessment: Petković's familiarity with SUI is a real tactical edge (−2pt SUI), but Yakin's proven KO management + bench explosion capability counter (+2pt SUI). Temperament roughly cancels.

Step 6 — Synthesis

Starting from WDM anchor, applying finding adjustments:

WDM ANCHOR:  SUI 38% / Draw 22% / ALG 40%

Adjustments to SUI:

  +4pt  ALG defensive fragility (7 GA in 3 games, Zidane shaky, Mandi 34 declining,
        no veteran GK pedigree). WDM's GDiff (ALG -3) captures partially but the
        qualitative depth is worse: Zidane inconsistent, CB cohesion poor, set-piece
        vulnerability. This is NOT fully in the WDM.

  +2pt  Venue familiarity (SUI played and won at BC Place Jun 24, 2-1 vs CAN).
        Knows the grass surface, stadium acoustics, lighting, bench placement.
        ALG visits for first time.

  +2pt  ALG climate shock (Kansas 30°C+ humid → Vancouver 14°C wet = 16-19°C drop).
        Muscle activation delay in first 30-45 min possible. Mild but real.

  +3pt  Amoura OUT (single absence per Finding 4a = −3pt to ALG = +3pt to SUI).
        Pace-in-behind weapon removed. ALG's transition threat reduced.

  +2pt  SUI bench explosion proven (Finding 21: SUI-BIH 71' triple sub → 4 goals
        in 23 min). Against ALG's open (not deep block) and potentially tiring
        defense, bench impact is game-state-conditional and favorable (Finding 18:
        bench scores when level/leading vs tired block, not when chasing).

  -3pt  Petković tactical familiarity (coached SUI 2014-2021). Knows Xhaka's
        triggers, Akanji's positioning, Rodriguez's free-kick routine. Real edge.

  -3pt  Mahrez red-hot form (2 goals MD3, first WC goals at 35y, milestone
        motivation). Current-state form surge not fully captured in tournament
        form factor (ALG drew AUT, but Mahrez's individual form is a separate
        variable). Finding 16 does NOT fire (35 < 38 threshold).

  -2pt  ALG set-piece weapon (2 corner goals vs JOR from Mahrez delivery).
        SUI conceded 90+3' set-piece header vs QAT. Specific matchup
        vulnerability not in WDM.

  Net: +4+2+2+3+2-3-3-2 = +5pt to SUI

R32-1 DEVIATION CAP CHECK:
  fav_share 0.6075 < 0.65 → cap total positive deviation at +5pt.
  My net positive deviation = +13pt, negative = -8pt, net = +5pt.
  +5pt = exactly at cap. ✅ No further reduction needed.

FINAL 90-MINUTE PROBABILITIES:

Check: 43 + 22 + 35 = 100% ✅

Key judgment calls:

1. ALG's defensive fragility is the biggest probability mover (+4pt). 7 GA in 3 games, Zidane shaky, Mandi declining — SUI's attack (Embolo + Manzambi + Vargas + Xhaka set pieces) should find multiple ways through.
2. Petković's familiarity is a real counterweight (−3pt) but doesn't overcome the structural gap (squad value ×3 dominance in WDM).
3. The R32-1 cap prevents over-bullying toward SUI. Even with multiple favorable adjustments, the match stays a competitive 43-22-35 — not a walkover.

7K. Knockout Prediction

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Extra Time (conditional on draw at 90')

Penalty Shootout (conditional on pens reached)

Advance Probability (unconditional)

Check: 56 + 44 = 100% ✅

Scoreline Distribution (90' only)

Sum: 20+18+13+12+8+7+22 = 100% ✅

Modal Match Path

SUI 2-1 at 90' (20%). The single most likely full path. Both teams score (reflecting both defenses' vulnerability), but SUI's quality edge (Embolo finishing + Manzambi heat + Xhaka set pieces) produces the winner.

8. Who Scores

Switzerland

Algeria

9. Match Flow Projection

10. Methodology Notes

Findings Applied:

• Finding 1 (Draw epidemic): 22% draw band for fav_share 0.60-0.70 (R32-4 calibrated).
• Finding 4a (Attack gutted trigger): Amoura OUT = single absence only → −3pt to ALG (NOT the 25-30pt gutting). Trigger NOT fired.
• Finding 6 (CB set-piece scoring): Both Akanji (SUI) and Bensebaini (ALG) in Who Scores at 5%.
• Finding 7 (Referee leniency): 20-25% discount on Falcón Pérez career rates. Observed 1Y/game in 2 WC matches. Prediction: 2-3Y.
• Finding 8 (Possession direction): SUI ~55% possession at ~60% confidence (ALG has 91.3% pass accuracy). NOT 80%.
• Finding 10 (Star-as-creator): Mahrez modeled as scorer (16%) + creator (Aouar 8% from Mahrez passes). Aouar's assist value captured.
• Finding 11 (Weather/environment): NEUTRALIZED (roof closed, 18-20°C). Travel asymmetry mild (+3pt SUI from venue familiarity + climate shock).
• Finding 12 (Conservation): 0% — R32 knockout, both must-win.
• Finding 13 (Sterile domination): Screen run on SUI (ball-dominant team). Flags: no age-declined #9 (Embolo 28), correct mechanism (possession → through balls → finishing), overload-with-penetration (Manzambi emergence). Fourth flag (no specialist striker): Embolo is a proper #9. Finding 13 does NOT fire.
• Finding 15 (Pen rate as band): Falcón Pérez 0.34 pen/game → ~25% probability of ≥1 pen. NOT a verdict.
• Finding 16 (Age-decline): Mahrez at 35 < 38 threshold → NO discount. Red-hot form confirmed.
• Finding 18 (Bench impact conditional): SUI bench weighted HIGHER (level/leading vs tired ALG). ALG bench weighted lower (chasing vs organized SUI).
• Finding 21 (Bench explosion): SUI-BIH validated. Weight multi-goal margins at 8-12% (SUI 3-1 at 8%). ALG plays open (not deep block) → explosion scenario is live.
• Finding 22 (Blowout exclusion): Does NOT fire. ALG does NOT play a 5-4-1 deep block. Zidane has no veteran GK pedigree (>50 caps, 2+ MOTMs). SUI multi-goal margins (3-1+) are possible.
• R32-1 (Deviation cap): fav_share 0.6075 < 0.65 → net positive deviation capped at +5pt. Applied.
• R32-2 (Opponent-tier-weighted PPG): Used in WDM form factor. SUI 1.17 (beat T2 CAN + T3 BIH, drew T3 QAT) vs ALG 0.83 (lost T1 ARG, beat T3 JOR, drew T2 AUT). Gap favors SUI.
• R32-3 (CONMEBOL reactive blueprint): Does NOT fire. ALG is CAF, not CONMEBOL. No reactive-block template.
• R32-4 (Draw band tiering): fav_share 0.60-0.70 → draw 20-25%. Used 22%.
• Empirical calibration weights: sterile ×2.0 (does not fire), context ×2.0, momentum ×1.75 (Mahrez form boost), conservation ×1.5 (0% × 1.5 = 0%).

Findings NOT Applied:

• Finding 2 (blowout underestimate): SUI is Tier 2, not Tier 1. ALG is not a minnow. Quality gap not decisive enough for 15-20% on 4+ margins. 3-1 at 8% only.
• Finding 14 (tournament energy): N/A (knockout = must-win).
• Finding 17 (4th flag — no specialist striker): Both teams have proper #9s (Embolo, Gouiri).
• Finding 19 (low-event late-winner): Combined xG ~2.6, not <1.5. Does not fire.
• Finding 20 (double-underestimate): SUI is Tier 2 with a pragmatic manager, not Tier 1 with an aggressive one. Does not fire.
• Finding 23 (GD-chase): N/A (knockout).
• Finding 24 (bracket optimization): R32 bracket is fixed. No draw-suffices. Full motivation.

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "sui-vs-alg"
date = "2026-07-03"
kickoff_cest = "05:00"
group = "R32"
venue = "vancouver"
referee = "falcon-perez"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
favorite = "Switzerland"
win = 43
draw = 22
loss = 35

[knockout]
win_et = 35
draw_et = 45
loss_et = 20
pen_win = 55
advance_a = 56
advance_b = 44

[scorelines]
"2-1" = 20
"1-1" = 18
"1-0" = 13
"1-2" = 12
"3-1" = 8
"2-0" = 7

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Embolo", probability = 18 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Mahrez", probability = 16 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0
finding_13_fires = false
finding_16_age_decline = ""
penalty_band = "~25%"
projected_xg = 1.5

[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 55
yellow_cards = "2-3"
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "~25%"

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: scout brief, team-news-sui, team-news-alg, lineups (projected), referee application (Falcón Pérez), venue/weather report, canonical team profiles (SUI, ALG), canonical referee profile (falcon-perez), squad-values.json, predictions-summary.md. Source archive: sources/matches/sui-vs-alg/