Senegal vs. Iraq - Consensus Ensemble
2026 World Cup, Group I MD3 | June 26, 2026 | BMO Field, Toronto (OPEN-AIR, ~24°C)
⚡ TASK-99: independent resolution | Dead rubber (SEN 0pts -3 GD, IRA 0pts -5 GD eliminated)
⚠️ Written pre-match (writers ignored live data per instruction)
Referee: Anthony Taylor (ENG)
TL;DR
Senegal ~65% / Draw ~26% / Iraq ~10%. Modal scoreline: SEN 2-0/2-1. Sarr #1 (~22%). Dead rubber — both 0pts, IRA eliminated, SEN needs miracle for best-3rd-place. Both rotated: SEN Mendy OUT (knee, Diaw in) + Jackson dropped (Mbaye in); IRA Hussein OUT (hamstring) + 5 changes + GK swap persists (Basil). Mané CONFIRMED fit (milestone 40th intl cap). Both must-win mathematically. Finding 13 (sterile-domination) risk on both (IRA 0 open-play goals, SEN wasteful). Taylor 3-4Y, 25-30% pen. 14pt SEN spread (59-73%) = genuine disagreement on SEN quality vs dead-rubber lethargy.
- Win%: SEN 65% / DRAW 26% / IRA 10% — 14pt spread (59-73%).
- Scoreline: SEN 2-0/2-1 modal (mm3 2-1, g4 2-0 25%, g5 2-1 12%).
- Who Scores: ✅ Sarr SEN #1 (~22%) — scored in both prior matches. Mané alt (~18%, milestone).
- Finding 4a: ✅ does NOT fire — Hussein OUT single absence for IRA; Mendy OUT for SEN. Both -3 to -5pt.
- Finding 12: ✅ 0% conservation — both must-win mathematically (dead rubber but not eliminated for SEN).
- Finding 13: ⚠️ risk on both — IRA 0 open-play goals; SEN wasteful.
Model Comparison (INDEPENDENT)
| Model | SEN | Draw | IRA | Modal | F13 sterile | SEN edge source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 63% | 25% | 12% | SEN 2-1 (14%) | both attacks | talent edge |
| g4 | 73% | ~10% | ~17% | SEN 2-0 (25%) | IRA only | rotation fragility |
| g5 | 59% | 27% | 14% | SEN 2-1 (12%) | both | quality, capped |
| Consensus | 65% | 26% | 10% | SEN 2-0/2-1 | both | quality |
Spread: 14pt SEN (59-73%) — g4 sees IRA rotation as collapse (SEN 73%); g5 credits dead-rubber lethargy + SEN GK change (SEN 59%). Draw band disagreement (10% vs 27%).
Consensus ensemble for SEN-IRA. 3 models resolved INDEPENDENTLY (TASK-99). ⚠️ Written pre-match. Full post-event after kickoff. Last updated Jun 26, 2026.