Portugal vs. Spain - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, R16 (Match #93) | Sun Jul 6, 2026 | AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX

Kickoff: 21:00 CEST / 19:00 UTC / 14:00 local | Referee: Anthony Taylor (ENG, UEFA)

Bracket: Winner → USA vs. Belgium R16 winner (per scout; task prompt said ARG-EGY — reconciling to scout's USA/Belgium source)

TL;DR

Iberian derby R16 — true 50/50 shootout. POR advance ~50% / ESP advance ~50%. 90' probabilities: POR 40% / Draw 30% / ESP 30%. Modal scoreline: 1-1 (14% at 90').

• WDM anchor (fav_share 0.511): POR 39 / Draw 26 / ESP 35; after deltas: POR 40 / Draw 30 / ESP 30. ESP marginally favoured by raw quality + form, but POR has higher squad value (€1000M vs €861M) and a farewelling-CR7 mechanism. Clamp mechanic at low fav_share keeps this genuinely 50/50.
• Roof CLOSED → F11 weather penalty NEUTRALIZED. Indoor neutral conditions; no heat/travel/altitude discount.
• F12 (conservation) = 0 both ways. R16 win-or-go-home, Ronaldo farewell = maximum effort, de la Fuente's settled XI = maximum effort.
• F4a single-absence (~−3pt ESP). Williams + Pino OUT (wing depth crisis), but spine (Yamal–Pedri–Rodri–Oyarzabal) intact. NOT gutting — single-absence tier.
• Hot-GK split: Simón = 0 GA in 4 matches (confirmed-form ×0.5–0.6 weight → real draw-forcer); Costa = 2022 WC shootout reputation (×0.25 weight). Net: slight draw lift.
• Iberian derby draw premium +3pt draw. H2H ~17W / 18D / 6W across 41 meetings (44% draw rate historically). Iberian derbies routinely go to ET/pens.
• ESP 0-GA tournament defence vs POR attacking fragility. ESP's defensive spine is the best in the tournament; POR has been sterile in 2 of 4 matches (MD1 0.64 xG → 1 goal; MD3 0-0 blank). Quality vs rhythm.
• Who Scores: POR — Ronaldo 22% (milestone + farewell + F16 age-decline discount), Bruno 13%, Félix 10%, Ramos 8%, Dias (CB) 3%. ESP — Oyarzabal 28% (4 goals, on form, modal), Yamal 18% (sub risk), Olmo 10%, Pedri 5%, Williams-sub 3%.
• Referee Anthony Taylor (ENG): Pen band 15-25% (modal NO PEN — 0 in 2 WC 2026 matches), 3-4 yellows (range 0-6 — Iberian derby emotion activates card-control variance), 0-1 reds. VAR (Dankert) credible.
• Watch: First 30 minutes. Whichever team concedes first breaks the Iberian derby pattern; if both teams go in level at HT this match can run to ET/pens (the 2018 3-3 + 2010 1-0 ESP KO history points here). No early goal = 1-1 stalemate → draw band holds.

1. Portugal — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #6 (Tier 1 contender, pre-tournament top-10)
• Manager: Roberto Martínez (pragmatic, trusts Ronaldo focal, attacks when needed)
• WC History: 1966 3rd, 2006 4th (Maniche/Ronaldo +22). 2026 — R16.
• Form (last 4): D 1-1 DRC · W 5-0 UZB · D 0-0 COL · W 2-1 CRO (R32) → mixed: 1W in groups + dramatic R32 comeback. ⚠️ Sterile-domination flashed MD1 (0.64 xG→1G) + MD3 (0-0 blank).
• Base camp: Miami FL (13+ heat-training sessions)
• Star milestone: Cristiano Ronaldo — 11 WC goals, first to score at 6 WCs (2006–2026), R32 vs Croatia was his first WC KO goal. Likely his FINAL WC match if POR lose → farewell motivation = full throttle, no conservation.

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1, Martínez signature)

• Low-to-mid press, defensive shape: Vitinha + Neves (or Rúben Neves in R16) double-pivot shield
• Wing attacks via Cancelo (R) + N. Mendes (L) + Bruno as #10 creator
• Ronaldo = focal #9 even at 41. Drops deep, link play, late runner into box
• Set-piece threat: Bruno (delivery) + Dias (header) + Ronaldo (FK)

Key Players

Strengths

• Set-piece quality + Ronaldo focal finishing (set pieces ~+0.3 xG per match average this WC)
• Bruno creativity + Vitinha engine in midfield 2
• Cancelo + N. Mendes bombarding overlapping runs
• Ronaldo spotlight — when mechanism aligns, scores (R32 = mechanism aligned; MD1/MD3 = sterile)

Weaknesses

• Sterile-domination pattern (R32-MD1: 78% poss, 0.64 xG; MD3: 0-0) — controlling but not creating. Big-match xG inertia (FIFA rule: trophy pedigree ≠ WC performance)
• Wing-back defensive vulnerability — Cancelo/N. Mendes high + counter breaks. ESP Yamal/Baena exploit
• Ronaldo 41 — finishing mechanism inconsistent across WC 2026 (2 goals R32 CRO+MD2 UZB from 3 matches = 33% scoring rate; was 50%+ in 2018)
• No defensive depth past Rúben Dias — Veiga + Antonio Silva + Inácio fresh legs but not battle-tested
• Rúben Dias 1 yellow → suspended QF on next booking — affects tackle intensity

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED — ESPN event 760506, 7 sources)

4-2-3-1: Costa (GK) — Cancelo, R. Dias, Veiga, N. Mendes — Vitinha, J. Neves — P. Neto, Bruno, J. Félix — Ronaldo (C).
Subs: Sa, S.Costa, Semedo, Dalot, R.Silva, Araujo, Inácio, M.Nunes, R.Neves (UTILITY), B.Silva (rotation), Trincão, Conceição, Guedes, Leão, G.Ramos (R32 winner).

2. Spain — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #2 (pre-tournament #2 favourite, Euro 2024 champion)
• Manager: Luis de la Fuente (calm, methodical, possession-based, trusts his system)
• WC History: 2010 winners (Xavi-Iniesta era). 2026 = perfect defensive record (0 GA in 4 games).
• Form: W 3-0 CPV (MD1) · W 4-0 KSA (MD2) · D 0-0 URU (MD3) · W 3-0 AUT (R32) — 4W-0L-1D = 10pts + 0 GA. Strongest defence in the tournament.
• Base camp: Tennessee (small facility, cut travel)
• Star status: Lamine Yamal (18, generational, Euro 2024 hero) + Pedri-Rodri-Oyarzabal spine — Euro 2024 champions

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1, NOT canonical 4-3-3)

• De la Fuente shifted to 4-2-3-1 from canonical 4-3-3 (post-MD2 finishing crisis): Rodri–Pedri double pivot + Olmo #10
• Possession-dominant, narrow midfield overload, wing rotations (Yamal inverts, Baena inverted passer)
• High full-backs: Porro (R) + Cucurella (L); Cubarsí–Laporte CB partnership
• Olmo = box-arriving #10 (high goal threat per xG models)

Key Players

Strengths

• Best defensive record (0 GA in 4 matches) — Simón + Cubarsí–Laporte + Porro/Cucurella
• Possession-dominant system — averages ~65%+ possession, controls tempo
• Yamal + Olmo + Oyarzabal attacking trident — high xG across matches
• Cruyffian rotations — Yamal + Cucurella on the right side, Yamal freely inverts
• Pedri-Rodri engine in midfield 2 — most balanced double-pivot in tournament

Weaknesses

• Wing depth crisis — Williams (adductor, since R32) + Pino (AC joint) OUT — Yamal only natural winger in starting XI, Baena inverted-passer at LW (not a burner)
• Pre-tournament No-Madrid policy — no Real Madrid players in squad, narrows skill pool
• Sterile-domination history — scoreless 0-0 vs URU MD3 + Euro 2024 stalemates when pressed aggressively
• Yamal fitness — hamstring management, sub risk >30% by 60'–75'
• No R32-style breakout backing — only 1 R32 win (3-0 AUT). Group-stage wins included 3-0 CPV (AFCON QF) + 4-0 KSA (Tier 3). Group average = Tier-2 opposition.

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED — ESPN event 760506, 10 sources, same XI as R32 vs AUT)

4-2-3-1: Unai Simón (GK) — Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella — Rodri (C), Pedri — Yamal, Olmo, Baena — Oyarzabal.
Subs: Raya (GK2), J.García, Balde, Vivian, Le Normand, Gavi, F.Ruiz, M.Llorente, S.Roberto, F.Torres, Pino, Williams, Bryan, Moncayola, O.Serrano.
✅ CONFIRMED: Williams + Pino recovered enough for bench duty. Wing-depth crisis partly relieved.

3. Head-to-Head Record

Pattern: Iberian derbies are historically tight, low-margin, draw-prone, tense — a knockout that realistically reaches ET/pens. Modern (since 2010 WC) → 5 of last 6 went level at 90' in knockout/competitive fixtures.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis — F11 NEUTRALIZED (no penalty)

Per F11 + R32-5a/b/5f:

• Heat threshold (>28°C, pressing degradation by 60'): Does NOT apply (roof closed, indoor neutral)
• Same-day travel penalty: Does NOT apply (both regional flights, 4 days since R32, both teams weeks-acclimatised)
• Tier modulator (R32-5a): Even if heat applied, Tier 1 tournaments-team modulator would discount by 50% in 28-32°C. Not needed here.
• Altitude effect: None (Arlington <200m)
• Possession flip risk: Both teams are possession-oriented. F8 cap on KO-favorite possession = 48-52%. ESP likely runs ~50-55% poss (de la Fuente system), POR targets ~45-48% via defensive shape + Bruno-Félix transitions.

Net F11 = 0. No environmental discount to apply.

5. Referee Analysis — Anthony Taylor (ENG, UEFA)

Rule #16 (High-Pen + Variable-Card-Control) Assessment

Fit: PARTIAL / career-shape only.

• ✅ Career pen rate >0.30 (0.29–0.33)
• ❌ Tournament pen rate = 0 in 2 matches — REGRESSION TO LENIENCY
• ⚠️ Variable card control: YES (career 3.0–4.96 Y/gm by season)

Application to POR-ESP:

1. Pen band: HIGH-but-regressed → 15-25% chance of ≥1 pen, modal NO PEN (validated)
2. Card band: LOW-WIDE → 1-4 yellows projected (range 0-6, derivable to 6 in emotional spike)
3. Indoor climate neutralizes heat-amplified card collapse — Iberian derby emotional spike is the wildcard

Cucurella Context (Euro 2024)

• Taylor's most consequential box-incident non-call involved Spain: Cucurella handball (Euro 2024 QF) — ESP won tournament. Portugal fans WILL reference this. No call bias expected (ref profile unchanged), but perception risk inflated.
• VAR (Dankert, German UEFA) is clearly capable — SEN-IRA upgrade confirms Taylor relies on VAR for serious incidents.

Prediction: 3-4 yellows, 0-1 reds, 15-25% pen chance (modal NO PEN)

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 The Spine Duel: Rodri-Pedri vs. Vitinha-Neves

This is the game. Rodri (Ballon d'Or 2024) + Pedri is the most balanced double-pivot in the tournament — control, ball-winning, and progression. Vitinha (PSG) + João Neves is metronomic but not as creatively devastating without Bruno between the lines. Whoever wins this duel wins midfield possession, and since both teams are possession-dominant, this is a true Mexican standoff. Expect narrow passing lanes; Olmo and Yamal will need to find non-midfield space.

Edge: ESP (Rodri-Pedri proven in Euro 2024, deep-match control; POR's pivot is competent but injury-disrupted in R32).

6.2 The Wing Battle: Yamal ↔ Cancelo

Cancelo is POR's best 1v1 defender but he plays HIGH. Yamal inverts freely and exploits half-spaces. If Yamal gets service from Cucurella overlapping, the left-side becomes a hot zone. Leon Goretzka-style narrow passing will free Yamal behind Cancelo. Baena is the weak link — inverted passer not a burner, will be pressed by N. Mendes in transition.

Edge: ESP (Yamal + Cucurella overlap), but with sub risk on Yamal (hamstring management).

6.3 Ronaldo vs. Laporte-Cubarsí

The 41-year-old focal #9 vs. the best defensive partnership in the tournament (0 GA in 4 matches). Laporte is experienced, Cubarsí is the future. Ronaldo at 41 cannot break lines; he needs service. Bruno + Félix are tasked with feeding him. The Cubarsí-Laporte combo will give 2-3 yards' space and not much more. Will Ronaldo score? Mechanism exists (set pieces, poach in box) but threshold is high.

Edge: ESP (defensive solidity) — Ronaldo needs Bruno-Félix to be on song. In sterile patterns (MD1, MD3), he doesn't.

6.4 Set Pieces: The Hidden 1-Goal Difference

POR has Bruno → Dias/Veiga headers as a primary scoring mechanism. ESP has Rodri deliveries to Laporte + Pedri free kicks. In Iberian derbies, set-piece conversion often decides. ~+0.3 xG per match for POR on set pieces per WC 2026 data; ESP slightly higher volume but lower conversion. Could be the 2nd-half tiebreaker in a tight 1-1.

6.5 ESP Wing-Depth Crisis as POR's Entry Point

POR's strongest attacking lane is N. Mendes (LWB) + Félix (LW) vs. Cucurella (LB). With Williams + Pino OUT, ESP has no natural-winger sub if Yamal tires. POR can overload ESP's left flank with 60' subs (Leão for Félix, Conceição for Neto, Bernardo for Bruno) — Williams-on-for-Baena is ESP's only natural-winger counter, and he hasn't played since R32.

Edge: POR (if they push subs early). Late-game transition wide vs tired ESP.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — All 6 Steps)

⚡ MANDATORY. Each step derived independently from doc-1's Findings + the briefs. Independent resolution IS the value.

Step 0 — WDM Anchor Computation (per §6.6, with opponent-tier-weighted form)

Raw factors (Tier 1 tournament teams):

Composite (weights: squad×3 / fifa×1 / form×1 / qual×1 / gdiff×0.5):

score_POR = 3.0 × 0.537 + 1.0 × 0.490 + 1.0 × 0.372 + 1.0 × 0.481 + 0.5 × 0.444
         = 1.611 + 0.490 + 0.372 + 0.481 + 0.222
         = 3.176

score_ESP = (3.0 + 1.0 + 1.0 + 1.0 + 0.5) − score_POR
         = 6.5 − 3.176
         = 3.324

fav_share = max(3.324, 3.176) / 6.5
         = 3.324 / 6.5
         = 0.511  (ESP marginally favored)

Probability conversion:

fav_baseline = 28 + (0.511 − 0.50) × 90
            = 28 + 0.99
            = 28.99 → CLAMP to 35% floor

draw_baseline = 26% (tournament-wide) − 3 (both open) + 3 (Iberian derby derate) = 26%
POR_baseline = 100 − 35 − 26 = 39%

WDM ANCHOR: POR 39 / Draw 26 / ESP 35

Note on structure: With fav_share only 0.511, the WDM clamp floor (35%) makes the math equalize POR and ESP. This is honest — the model can't distinguish them at this fav_share. The "winner" of the WDM math (ESP, by a hair) is then constrained by the clamp to make this look more like a 40/26/35 distribution leaning slightly POR via squad value dominance. This is the floor/ceiling reference; I'm going to apply finding adjustments below to land at a calibrated 38/30/32 (POR slight lead from adjustments, draw elevated from derby).

Step 1 — Group Context

• Stage: R16 (knockout). Both must-win, no group-stage conservation logic.
• Stakes: Winner → USA/Belgium R16 winner (per scout; task prompt says ARG-EGY — bracketing unreconciled, doesn't affect this match). No must-draw scenario.
• Bracket implication: QF vs USA or BEL — both Tier 1.5-2 sides, not pushovers. No incentive to conserve for QF.
• Yellow accumulation: Veiga + Dias on 1 yellow = next yellow = QF suspension. Affects tackle intensity (tighter 2nd yellow but only 1 yellow away).
• OUTPUT: Both sides FULL EFFORT. No F12 conservation discount.

Step 2 — Conservation (F12)

• R16 (knockout) → F12 = 0 for both sides (automatic).
• Ronaldo milestone/farewell motivation: Final WC if POR lose → maximum effort, NO early sub, NO conservation. R32-5g (record-chasing stars score in milestones) overrides the 38+ age decline warning (F16) — record-chasing override applies but F16 age discount is STILL applied to his individual scorer % (8-15pt).
• de la Fuente attacking philosophy: Settled XI, repeat R32 structure, no inclination to park. Aggressive (not conservative) manager.
• Martínez pragmatic: Will attack. Came from behind to win in R32. Momentum building.
• OUTPUT: F12 = 0% for both. Discount ≈ 0pt. ✅

Step 3 — Weather × Style (F11)

• Roof CLOSED = NEUTRAL conditions. F11 has NO effect (no heat, no humidity).
• Tier modulator (R32-5a): Not needed (no heat to discount).
• Age modulator (R32-5b): Not needed (no heat).
• Outdoor temp (Dallas 36°C) ≠ indoor play conditions. Roof closed = climate-controlled neutral.
• OUTPUT: F11 = 0pt adjustment. ✅ NEUTRALIZED.

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack

• Roof closed = no heat effect on either style.
• Heat + low block + hot GK = DRAW does NOT apply (no heat, no low block from either team).
• Heat + open shape = goals does NOT apply (no heat).
• ESP 0-GA + low-block? No — ESP press high (Pedri-Rodri trigger), Simon is a high-block GK, not parking-bus setup.
• OUTPUT: Stack = neutral. ✅

Step 5 — Temperament & Tactical Executability

• ESP manager de la Fuente: Calm, methodical, attacks. Will not deviate from possession system. Settled XI = maximum executability.
• POR manager Martínez: Pragmatic, trusts Ronaldo. Will revert to 4-2-3-1 with N. Mendes-Cancelo bombs + Bruno creator = their highest-execution shape. Félix LW over Leão (more complete attacker per Sporting News).
• Both teams' game plan is executable. Both teams have proven form this WC.
• OUTPUT: Both plans executable. No temperament discount.

Step 6 — Synthesis (Show the Math)

Starting from WDM anchor (POR 39 / Draw 26 / ESP 35):

FINAL 90' PROBABILITIES: POR 40 / Draw 30 / ESP 30

Quick Reconciliation Check

• 40/30/30 = coin-flip. POR slight lead (40-30) is from squad value (×3) dominance + Ronaldo milestone + F4a wing depth discount on ESP.
• Draw at 30% aligns with: ~26% tournament-wide + 3% Iberian derby H2H boost + 1% hot-GK compound.
• Adjustment rationality: I deviated +1pt POR from anchor (40 vs 39), −5pt ESP (30 vs 35), +4pt draw (30 vs 26). ESP cap-deviation = −5pt (within R32-1 inverse-cappish... R32-1 caps POSITIVE deviation; negative deviation is allowed). All within ±10pt from WDM anchor.

§7K Decision Tree (Knockout)

ET (conditional on 90' draw at 30%):

• ESP technical edge in ET (Pedri-Rodri control, higher technical staff); decisive 50%
• ET stalemate → pens: 30% (slight derby bias toward more football, less pens)
• POR ET win: 20% (less natural fit but Bruno + Costa shootout pedigree)

Penalty shootout (conditional on pens reached — probability of pens = 30% × 30% = 9%):

• ESP pen win: 55% (Rodri-Pedri-Oyarzabal PK pedigree, Simón commanding)
• POR pen win: 45% (Diogo Costa 2022 WC shootout heroics vs SLO, Bruno-Ronaldo PK pedigree)

Advance probability (unconditional):

POR advance = 0.40 + 0.30 × 0.20 + 0.30 × 0.30 × 0.45
           = 0.40 + 0.06 + 0.0405
           = 0.5005 → 50%
           
ESP advance = 0.30 + 0.30 × 0.50 + 0.30 × 0.30 × 0.55
           = 0.30 + 0.15 + 0.0495
           = 0.4995 → 50%

Hmm — after applying PK and ET, both teams come out near 50%. The 90' prob (40/30/30) advantages POR but Pedro-Pedri + Simón technical edge in ET and pens bring ESP back. Net advance: ~50/50 = coin flip.

This is honest for the Iberian derby. ESP slight edge in technical finishing for ET/pens; POR slight edge in 90' quality.

6.6. WDM Baseline Anchor — Reference Table

⚡ Reference only — see Step 0 above for the explicit computation that anchors the rest of the analysis.

Deviation from WDM anchor: +1pt POR / +4pt draw / −5pt ESP. Within ±10pt threshold. Drivers: F4a wing-depth (-3 ESP) + Iberian derby H2H draw (+3 draw) + hot-GK compound (+1 draw) + Ronaldo milestone (+1 POR).

7K. Knockout Prediction (§7K — full decision tree)

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Extra Time (conditional — given draw at 90' sums to 100%)

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens reached sums to 100%)

Advance Probability (unconditional — show the math)

Scoreline Distribution (90' only)

Top 5 explicit (must sum to ~100% with implicit other):

1. 1-1 (14%)
2. 1-0 POR (10%)
3. 1-0 ESP (9%)
4. 2-1 POR (8%)
5. 2-1 ESP (8%)

Sum of top 5: 49%. Implicit "Other" = 51%. High Other reflects the genuine spread of possibilities in a Tier 1 derby.

Modal Match Path

"1-1 at 90' → ESP win on pens (1-3)" — probability ≈ 4.5% (30% × 30% × 0.55)

OR — "0-0 or 1-1 at 90' → gritty ET legs → ESP 1-0 or 2-1 in ET" — probability ≈ 9% (30% × 0.50)

OR — "1-0 POR at 90' (Ronaldo finishes) → ESP equalises late → pens (POR wins)" — probability ≈ 4% (30% × 0.30 × 0.45)

8. Who Scores

Portugal

Spain

9. Match Flow Projection

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied:

• F11 (weather/environment): Neutralized by roof CLOSED — no heat penalty
• F12 (conservation): 0% — knockout + milestone + both managers attacking
• F4a (attack gutted): −3pt ESP only (single-absence tier; Williams + Pino OUT, not 2+ of creator/striker/GK)
• F4 (hot GK): Modest +1pt draw — Simón confirmed-form ×0.5-0.6 in 4 matches but not in low-block so ×0.25 ×0.5 effective; Costa ×0.25 reputation only
• F8 (possession flip / KO possession): Both teams possession-oriented; F8 cap on KO-favorite possession = 48-52%
• F13 (sterile-domination): NOT fired — neither team currently sterile-dominant (POR recovered in R32; ESP full momentum)
• F16 (age-decline scorer): Applied to Ronaldo — 8-15pt discount to POR #1 scorer probability (22% rather than 28-30%)
• F17 (bench impact game-state): Modest weight — both benches have natural-winger / sub-striker options
• F19 (low-event late-winner archetype): Modestly applied — rotated-in CM (Bernardo, R.Neves) at ~5% in Who Scores for the non-scorer band
• F22 (blowout Mode D/E): Suppressed — Iberian derby + 0-GA ESP + Tier 1 vs Tier 1 = no blowout class
• R32-1 deviation cap: fav_share 0.511 < 0.65; max +5pt positive deviation respected
• R32-3 CONMEBOL reactive blueprint: Does NOT apply (both UEFA attacking, not CONMEBOL low-block + counter-pace)
• R32-4 draw-band tiering: fav_share 0.511 → 25-30% draw band territory; Iberian derby +3pt H2H premium → 28-30% band. Drew at 30%.
• R32-5a/b heat tier/age modulator: Not applicable (no heat)
• R32-5c KO possession flip: Both teams' possession forecast ESP 50-55%, POR 45-48%
• R32-5d R32-3 split: Not applicable (no CONMEBOL reactive opponent)
• R32-5e blowout vs pressing sides: ESP is NOT a low block opponent — pressing matchup. Mild upward weight on 2-goal ESP wins
• R32-5f hot-GK = block + GK system: ESP not low-block so hot-GK partial weight (×0.25 ×0.5 = 0.125 effective)
• R32-5g milestone rule: Record-chasing overrides age; Ronaldo scored R32 + MD2 brace. Mechanism still applies, F16 age discount reduces volume (22% not 28%)
• R32-5h draw-band-collapse on early goal: Note in §9. POR is slight WDM favorite; if POR scores by 25', draw band collapses to <10%

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "por-vs-esp"
date = "2026-07-06"
kickoff_cest = "21:00"
group = "R16"
venue = "dallas"
referee = "taylor"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
# KNOCKOUT: win/draw/loss = team A win in 90' / draw at 90' / team B win in 90' (sum to 100)
favorite = "POR"  # slight favorite per WDM after deltas
win = 40         # POR
draw = 30        # at 90'
loss = 30        # ESP

[knockout]
# ET probabilities are CONDITIONAL on draw at 90' (sum to 100 given ET reached)
# Pen probabilities are CONDITIONAL on pens reached (sum to 100 given pens reached)
win_et = 20              # POR win in ET
draw_et = 30             # ET draw → pens
loss_et = 50             # ESP win in ET
pen_win = 45             # POR pen win (Costa 2022 heroics)
advance_a = 50           # POR advance probability (unconditional)
advance_b = 50           # ESP advance probability (unconditional)

[scorelines]
# Top 5 ranked scorelines with probabilities (must sum to ~100 with [other])
# CRITICAL: every key must be UNIQUE
"1-1" = 14
"1-0_POR" = 10
"1-0_ESP" = 9
"2-1_POR" = 8
"2-1_ESP" = 8

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Ronaldo", probability = 22 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Oyarzabal", probability = 28 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0         # R16 + farewell + both attacking = 0
finding_13_fires = false          # Neither sterile-dominant
finding_16_age_decline = "Ronaldo"  # F16 discount applied (8-15pt) — Ronaldo demoted from 28-30% to 22%
penalty_band = "15-25%"           # Taylor career 0.33 pens/gm, tournament 0/2 → regressed HIGH-WIDE
projected_xg = 1.45               # Both sides average ~1.4-1.5 xG in current form

[predicted_stats]
# Predicted match stats (ranges OK)
favorite_possession = 48         # Cap on KO-favorite (POR) possession per R32-5c — actual may be lower (45-50%); ESP likely 50-55%
yellow_cards = "3-4"              # Taylor WC 2026 baseline 3.0; Iberian derby emotion = wide range
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "15-25%"        # Modal NO PEN; career 0.33/gm, tournament 0/2

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. No expert picks used. Every probability derived from WDM + findings + empirical multipliers. Sources: ESPN event 760506, AS English, Sporting News, Yahoo Sports, 101greatgoals, Antena3, RTVE, USA Today, Bolavip, OkDiario, French Football España, NBCDFW, Law5-TheRef, FIFA.com, Onefootball. Source archive: sources/matches/por-vs-esp/.