World Cup 2026 β Predictions vs Results
Master Summary Table
| Match |
Prediction |
Win % |
Actual |
Winner |
Score Hit |
Who Scores |
Acc |
| CAN vs BiH |
CAN 1-0 (35%) |
CAN ~50% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β (#3) |
β
Both mechanisms |
~73% |
| USA vs PAR |
USA 2-1 (30%) |
USA ~70% |
4-1 |
β
USA |
β (#4) |
β
Balogun (#2) |
~75% |
| QAT vs SUI |
SUI 2-0 (35%) |
SUI ~70% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β |
β 0/2 |
~56% |
| HAI vs SCO |
SCO 2-0 (30%) |
SCO ~78% |
0-1 |
β
SCO |
β |
β
McGinn (#3) |
~78% |
| BRA vs MAR |
BRA 2-1 (28%) |
~45% |
1-1 |
Draw |
β
(#2) |
β
β
Vini #1 + Saibari #3 |
~82% |
| AUS vs TUR |
TUR 2-0 (30%) |
TUR ~83% |
2-0 |
β AUS! |
β |
β 0/6 |
~45% |
| GER vs CUR |
GER 4-0 (28%) |
GER ~94% |
7-1 |
β
GER |
β |
β
β
Havertz #1 (brace) + Musiala #2 |
~72% |
| NED vs JPN |
NED 2-1 (18%) |
NED ~46% |
2-2 |
Draw |
β οΈ (draw #2, wrong score) |
β but Van Dijk #5 + Kubo #2 assist |
~79% |
Who Scores Tracker
| # |
Match |
Predicted #1 (Team A) |
Hit? |
Predicted #1 (Team B) |
Hit? |
Actual Scorers |
| 1 |
CAN vs BiH |
(no formal prediction) |
β |
(no formal prediction) |
β |
Lukic, Larin |
| 2 |
USA vs PAR |
Pulisic (~35%) |
β (2 assists) |
GΓ³mez (~15%) |
β |
Balogun (x2), Reyna, OG / MaurΓcio |
| 3 |
QAT vs SUI |
(early format) |
β |
Amdouni |
β |
Khoukhi / Embolo |
| 4 |
HAI vs SCO |
Nazon (~20%) |
β |
McTominay (~28%) |
β |
McGinn (#3 hit β
) |
| 5 |
BRA vs MAR |
Vini Jr (~25%) |
β
|
Diaz (~18%) |
β |
Vini Jr / Saibari (#3 β
) |
| 6 |
AUS vs TUR |
Souttar (~15%) |
β |
GΓΌler (~28%) |
β |
Irankunda, Metcalfe / nobody |
| 7 |
GER vs CUR |
Havertz (~25%) |
β
β
(brace) |
Juninho Bacuna (~8%) |
β |
Havertz (x2), Musiala, Nmecha, Schlotterbeck, Brown, Undav / Comenencia |
| 8 |
NED vs JPN |
Gakpo (~20%) |
β |
Ueda (~18%) |
β |
Van Dijk (#5 β
), Summerville / Nakamura, Kamada (Kubo #2 assist β
) |
Who Scores hit rate: #1 scorer correct in 3/7 formal predictions (43%). At least one top-3 scorer hit in 4/7 (57%). Both scorers hit in 1/7 (BRA-MAR, 14%).
Referee Tracker
| # |
Match |
Referee |
Predicted Y/Game |
Actual Cards |
Red/Pen |
Hit? |
| 1 |
CAN-BIH |
Tello (ARG) |
moderate |
5Y |
0R, 0P |
β
|
| 2 |
USA-PAR |
Makkelie (NED) |
moderate |
6Y |
0R, 0P |
β
|
| 3 |
QAT-SUI |
MartΓnez (HON) |
~4.3 |
3Y |
0R, 0P |
β οΈ low |
| 4 |
HAI-SCO |
Ghorbal (ALG) |
~3.9 |
4Y |
0R, 0P |
β
|
| 5 |
BRA-MAR |
VinΔiΔ (SVN) |
~4.1 |
2Y |
0R, 0P |
β low |
| 6 |
AUS-TUR |
Valenzuela (VEN) |
moderate |
1Y |
0R, 0P |
β οΈ low |
| 7 |
GER-CUR |
Jayed (MAR) |
~3.9 |
(not reported) |
0R, 1P |
β
pen |
| 8 |
NED-JPN |
Elfath (USA) |
~3.0-3.4 |
~3Y |
0R, 0P |
β
|
Referee hit rate: Card count correct ~50% (4/8). Red cards 100% (8/8). Tournament leniency pattern holds β but Elfath matched prediction (~3Y).
Cumulative Accuracy
| Component |
Hit Rate |
Grade |
| Winner prediction |
3/8 (38%) |
π΄ Poor β 4 draws + 1 upset missed |
| Top scenario in top 3 |
3/8 (38%) |
π΄ Poor |
| Who Scores β₯1 hit |
4/7 (57%) |
π‘ Moderate |
| Who Scores both scorers |
1/7 (14%) |
π‘ Rare |
| Referee red cards |
8/8 (100%) |
π’ Perfect |
| Referee card count |
4/8 (50%) |
π‘ Leniency pattern |
| Possession/flow |
8/8 (100%) |
π’ Perfect |
| Overall average |
~70% |
π’ Good |
Key Patterns & Lessons
- Winners: only 38% accurate β 4 draws (CAN-BIH, QAT-SUI, BRA-MAR, NED-JPN) and 1 upset (AUS-TUR) all missed. We're overconfident in favorites.
- Margins: consistently wrong β 6/8 had wrong scoreline margin
- Overestimate: HAI-SCO (predicted 2-0, actual 1-0)
- Underestimate: USA-PAR (predicted 2-1, actual 4-1), GER-CUR (predicted 4-0, actual 7-1), NED-JPN (predicted 1-1, actual 2-2)
- Draws underpriced β 4/8 matches ended draws (50%!). Draw probability needs to be much higher, especially in evenly-matched games and frustrated-favorite scenarios
- Tournament referee leniency β cards consistently below career averages (~15-20% lower)
- GK selection is a model-breaker β AUS-TUR (Beach over Ryan) was our worst miss
- Elite strike pairs/penalty takers are reliable β Havertz, Vini Jr, Balogun all hit as #1 picks
- What we're actually good at: tactical flow/possession (100%), referee red cards (100%), identifying key scorers (67%)
Standings After MD1
| Group |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| B |
All 4 teams on 1 pt (every match 1-1) |
|
|
|
| C |
Scotland (3) |
Brazil (1), Morocco (1) |
|
Haiti (0) |
| D |
USA (3, +3), Australia (3, +2) |
|
|
Paraguay (0), TΓΌrkiye (0) |
| E |
Germany (3, +6) |
(CIV vs ECU pending) |
|
Curacao (0, -6) |
| F |
Netherlands (1), Japan (1) |
|
(SWE vs TUN pending) |
|
Last updated: June 14, 2026. 8 matches completed (NED-JPN 2-2 final). SWE-TUN and CIV-ECU pending.