Norway vs. England - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, Quarter-Final | July 11, 2026 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL

Kickoff: 23:00 CEST (21:00 UTC / 17:00 EDT) | Referee: Clément Turpin (France)

TL;DR

Eng­land marginally favored in a genuine coin-flip QF — but Miami heat, Nyland's confirmed-form GK run, and NOR's upset momentum narrow the gap to ~1pt at 90'. ENG ~38% / draw ~25% / NOR ~37%. Advance ~51% / 49% — winner faces FRA in SF1.

• WDM anchor: ENG 41 / draw 22 / NOR 37. Fav_share 0.642, NOT a runaway favorite despite the 3.36:1 squad-value edge.
• F11 heat (34.4°C, heat index ~37°C, no climate control): FULLY APPLIES — R32-5a: above 33°C, full penalty regardless of tier. ENG pressing degrades asymmetrically.
• Nyland ×0.5-0.6 confirmed-form with compact NOR block = draw compound. 8 saves in 2 KO matches (CIV 90'+7' super-save + BRA 4). Block + GK product, NOT just reputation.
• Haaland record-chasing (7G WC26, 14-game intl streak, Golden Boot race) vs Kane record-chasing (7G WC26, 17 career, chasing Messi 18). Both milestone-motivated → both likely scorers (R32-5g: record-chasing → goals 7/7 in KOs).
• Modal 1-1 (18%); full path "1-1 → ET 1-1 → ENG pens 4-3 (~4%). mm3's coin-flip strength kicks in, but R32 retrospective (BRA-NOR mm3 F) flags risk of over-hedging draws at the expense of NOR win.
• Watch: lightning-suspension window 17:00–19:00 EDT (30% PoP). A 30-60 min weather delay resets the heat accumulation curve and could invert the press-degradation dynamic.

1. Norway 🇳🇴 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 40 (pre-WC; June 2025)
• Manager: Ståle Solbakken (aggressive posture — full strength vs CIV, full strength vs BRA after MD3 rotation)
• WC History: First KO qualification since 1998; first SF since 1998 vs BRA
• Form (WC26): P5 W4 L1 (lost only MD3 vs FRA with 10-man rotation). 11 GF / 7 GA. Opponent-tier-weighted PPG = 4.2 (best of any remaining KO team — beat BRA R16 + CIV R32 + SEN MD2)
• Base camp: UNC Greensboro NC (MD1); QF base not confirmed in corpus

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1)

• Berg + Berge double-pivot protects CBs and recycles to Ødegaard
• Ødegaard has AM license — creator-first, late box-arrivals on second phase
• Sørloth (RW) + Schjelderup (LW, today) provide width; both can cut inside
• Haaland runs diagonal channels behind CBs — the focal point
• Compact block transitions to vertical counters — does NOT dominate possession

Key Players

Strengths

• Hot GK + compact 4-2-3-1 + counter pace = proven upset formula (R32-5f block+GK compound)
• Haaland diagonal runs are un-markable in single-game
• Ødegaard creator-license unlocks late-game blocks
• Set-piece aerial threat (Heggem/Ajer targets from Ødegaard delivery)

Weaknesses

• Squad depth weakest among QF teams (only Strand Larsen/Bobb/Schjelderup off bench; 0 KO bench goals)
• Possession-dominant sides can pin them back (compounded by F11 heat — but their block firms up)
• Pressing-heavy teams can win the ball high — but Tuchel's ENG may not sustain press in 34°C

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via lineup-checker)

Nyland (GK); Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Møller Wolfe; P. Berg, S. Berge; Schjelderup, Ødegaard (c), Sørloth; Haaland

2. England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁧󠁿 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 4 (pre-WC; June 2025)
• Manager: Thomas Tuchel (aggressive posture — no conservation, statement-making)
• WC History: 1966 winners; first WC final since 1966
• Form (WC26): P5 W4 D1 L0. 14 GF / 5 GA. Opponent-tier-weighted PPG = 3.7 (below NOR — schedule flatter: GHA 0-0, PAN 2-0, DRC 2-1, MEX 3-2)
• Base camp: not in corpus; both teams ≈ equal travel

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1)

• Rice + Anderson double-pivot (Rice was rested MD3 with calf, now full)
• Bellingham AM license — late box-arrivals from deep
• Madueke RW (in for Saka) — 1v1 dribbler with direct shot; less creator-combo than Saka
• Kane focal — drops deep to link, runs channels; chasing Mbappé 12 / Messi 18 in WC career scoring
• Stones RB (today, natural CB in RB role) — more conservative than Quansah's overlap

Key Players

Strengths

• Tournament-team depth (validated R32-5: Tier-1 absorb creative gutting with system depth)
• Comeback pattern validated (R32 vs DRC: 0-1 HT → 2-1 W; R16 vs MEX: conceded but won 3-2)
• Multiple creators (Bellingham, Saka bench, Gordon, Madueke) — defensive rotations can't shut all lanes
• Milestone motivation (Kane chasing Mbappé/Messi; Bellingham 50th cap)

Weaknesses

• RB depth crisis persists — Stones is a CB filling in (Quansah ankle watch, R. James not fit). Stones won't overlap like Quansah did vs MEX.
• Possession-flip pattern (5 validations): ENG can win with <50% possession but their pressing depth drops in heat (R32-5a: Tier-1 + 28-32°C = 50% reduction in heat penalty — but 34°C > 33°C = full penalty applies regardless).
• Bench scoring LOWEST among active KO teams (1/23 = 4.3%; 0 KO bench goals). Saka/Madueke/Rashford/Eze/Watkins/Toney = 0 KO goals off bench.
• Bellingham caution (1Y) — modifies defensive intensity; late-tackle risk = SF suspension if ENG advance.

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via lineup-checker)

Pickford (GK); Stones, Konsa, Guéhi, O'Reilly; Anderson, Rice; Madueke, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane

3. Head-to-Head Record

⚠️ DATA GAP — no recent NOR-ENG competitive meeting surfaced in the WC 2026 corpus. Historic note: Norway had strong results vs traditional European powers in the 90s era, but no direct angle validated for this specific pairing. Writers should not invent H2H data.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis — Quantitative

• Heat penalty FULL (R32-5a: >33°C = full penalty for all tiers)
• Asymmetric degradation: ENG pressing-side higher energy cost (their press needs more sprints); NOR compact block firms up as ENG tires
• Estimated deltas: -3pt ENG pressing output, +3pt NOR block stability, +1pt draw (from heat alone)
• Compounded with hot-GK + low block: draw +2-3pt additional
• Lightning delay risk: if 30-60 min delay pushes kickoff to 18:00 EDT, temp drops to ~32.8°C and humidity rises to 56% — partial neutralization of heat penalty. A delay flips the press-degradation dynamic in ENG's favor.

5. Referee Analysis — Clément Turpin (France)

High-Pen Archetype (Rule #16)

• NOT triggered in narrow sense (career Y/gm 3.25 is NOT below the threshold for "variable-card" pattern)
• But still statistically high-pen (career 0.40 pens/gm; UCL 0.55) → frame as ~25-35% chance of ≥1 penalty, NOT certainty

Prediction

• Yellows: 3 (modal), range 2-4 (tournament-discounted)
• Reds: 0 (modal), 15-20% risk — DOGSO/second-yellow scenarios on Haaland or Kane runs in behind
• Penalty probability: 25-35% for ≥1 pen — most likely still no penalty (validated POR-DRC pattern: 0.40+ career rate → 0 pens in match)
• Slight ENG tilt if pen awarded (Kane penalty lane — chasing Messi Mbappé record) but NOR benefits too (Haaland creates desperate box contact)
• Tuchel history: called Turpin "Grade E / one out of 10" after Bayern-Man City — expect low dissent tolerance from ENG bench

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 — Nyland (NOR GK) vs Kane (ENG CF)

Kane drops deep to link, runs channels late. Nyland's hot form = 8 saves in 2 KO matches incl. 90'+7' super-save vs CIV. If Kane gets 1v1 with Nyland in the box, who wins? Nyland has denied CIV's Diallo FK at 90'+7' and kept BRA to 1 goal from 2.73 xG (4 saves). Edge: Nyland in current form, but Kane's mobility + link play are different from CIV/BRA finishing profiles.

6.2 — Ødegaard (NOR AM) vs Rice (ENG DM)

Ødegaard has 3 assists WC26 + creator license. Rice is ENG's press-shield + ball-recovery engine. Rice's job = stop Ødegaard's vertical passing lanes. With Bellingham 1Y cautious, Rice can't rely on AM cover. If Ødegaard finds pockets between ENG lines, NOR counters will start consistently. Edge: even; depends on whether ENG's high-press forces Ødegaard deep.

6.3 — Haaland diagonal runs vs Konsa/Guéhi CB pairing

Haaland's diagonal channels are un-markable in single-game; ENG's CBs are Tier-1 (Konsa/Guéhi passed GHA test, held MEX to 2 goals). ENG CB pairing is the best Haaland has faced all tournament (better than CIV's Kossounou or BRA's veteran pairing). Expect Haaland to need 2-3 chances to score, not 1. Edge: ENG CBs (slight); if Haaland scores, it's likely 1 goal not 2.

6.4 — ENG pressing vs NOR compact block (heat-adjusted)

ENG pressing is the engine of their R32 comeback (HT speech flipped 0-1 → 2-1). NOR's compact 4-2-3-1 sits and transitions. At 34°C, ENG's press degrades by 60' — late in match, NOR block firms up while ENG pressing drops. This is the F11 × F4 COMPOUND that produces the draw band. Edge: even early, NOR late.

6.5 — Set pieces (NOR aerial vs ENG delivery)

NOR: Heggem/Ajer are set-piece targets (Østigård scored on a CB sub at 76' vs IRQ — CB set-piece finding F6). ENG: Stones/O'Reilly/Konsa deliver, Guéhi/Konsa attack. Edge: even; both teams have CB set-piece threat at ~5%.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — walked independently)

⚡ MANDATORY. I walked doc-5's 6-step graph myself using doc-1's Findings + the briefs. My resolution is below with explicit numbers per step.

Step 0 — Compute the WDM anchor (§6.6)

Raw factors:

Opponent-tier-weighted PPG (R32-2 rule):

NOR:

• W vs IRQ (Tier 3): 3 × 1 = 3
• W vs SEN (Tier 2): 3 × 2 = 6
• L vs FRA (Tier 1): 0
• W vs CIV (Tier 3): 3 × 1 = 3
• W vs BRA (Tier 1): 3 × 3 = 9
• Total: 21 / 5 = 4.2 weighted PPG

ENG:

• W vs CRO (Tier 2): 3 × 2 = 6
• D vs GHA (Tier 3): 1 × 0.5 = 0.5
• W vs PAN (Tier 3): 3 × 1 = 3
• W vs DRC (Tier 3): 3 × 1 = 3
• W vs MEX (Tier 2): 3 × 2 = 6
• Total: 18.5 / 5 = 3.7 weighted PPG

NOR edges ENG in opponent-tier-weighted form — primarily because the BRA R16 win = 9 weighted points (3× a Tier-1 win). This is the R32-2 finding in action: raw PPG (both ~2.4) hides the schedule quality difference.

Share calculations:

Composite (weights sum to 6.5):

• ENG = 3×0.771 + 1×0.615 + 1×0.468 + 1×0.500 + 0.5×0.552 = 2.313 + 0.615 + 0.468 + 0.500 + 0.276 = 4.172
• NOR = 6.5 − 4.172 = 2.328

fav_share = 4.172 / 6.5 = 0.642

Probabilities (formula: fav = 28 + (0.642−0.50)×90 = 40.78% → 41%):

• ENG baseline: 41%
• Draw (R32-4 band for fav_share 0.60-0.70 → 20-25%, midpoint 22): 22%
• NOR: 37%

WDM ANCHOR: ENG 41 / draw 22 / NOR 37

⚠️ Note on GDiff factor: R32 retrospective (Jun 30) downgraded GDiff from ×2.0 to ×0.5 because GDiff reinforced wrong favorites on both R32 upsets (GER +6 vs PAR +1 → favored GER who lost; NED +6 vs MAR +3 → favored NED who lost). ENG's +6 GDiff flatters them (vs GHA 0-0 and PAN 2-0); NOR's +3 understates them (vs BRA R16 win was 2-1 from open play, not flattering). I weight GDiff at ×0.5 per the corrected formula.

Deviation justification: WDM anchor reflects (a) ENG's 3.36:1 squad value edge, (b) FIFA rank gap, (c) NOR's slight form edge (4.2 vs 3.7 weighted PPG). I'm NOT deviating >10pt from the anchor — all subsequent adjustments are within ±5pt of the WDM numbers, well inside the R32-1 cap.

Step 1 — Group Context

• QF, single-leg knockout. No group math, no "must-win" tier logic.
• Bracket reward: winner faces FRA in SF1 (Jul 14, Dallas). FRA beat MAR 2-0 in 4th QF — Tier-1 opponent for the winner.
• Urgency: both at peak motivation. NOR first KO run since 1998. ENG first WC final since 1966 (Tier-1 contender pressure).
• Yellow-card SF1 risk: Bellingham (1Y) and the injured Nusa (NOR — but Nusa is on the bench today) at risk of SF suspension. Both will modify aggressive-tackle exposure, especially Bellingham in defensive duels.
• Output: 0pt adjustment. Both teams full strength.

Step 2 — Conservation (F12)

• QF — no group context to conserve. Both managers aggressive (Solbakken rotated MD3 only — already rotated, now full strength; Tuchel has not conserved any KO match).
• Milestone motivation: Haaland (Golden Boot + 14-game streak) and Kane (WC scoring record chase) → both play 90 minutes, both hunt goals.
• Bracket pressure: FRA in SF1 → no rotating now.
• Output: F12 = 0% both teams.

Step 3 — Weather × Style (F11 + R32-5a/5b)

• Temp: 34.4°C, heat index 36-38°C. Above 33°C threshold.
• R32-5a: "Above 33°C, apply full penalty regardless of tier." → full F11 penalty applies to both ENG and NOR (Tier-1 reduction does NOT apply above 33°C).
• R32-5b (age modulator): NOR midfield spine (Berge 28, Berg 28, Ødegaard 27 — avg 28) and ENG midfield spine (Rice 28, Anderson 22, Bellingham 22 — avg 25). Neither 33+. No age-modulator boost.
• Asymmetric degradation: ENG pressing style degrades more (more sprints needed); NOR compact block firms up (less energy required).
• Output: -3pt ENG, +2pt NOR, +1pt draw (from heat alone).

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack

• Heat + NOR compact block + Nyland hot-GK = DRAW COMPOUND. This is the highest-probability draw-producing scenario in the matrix (validated R32-5f: hot-GK = system product; ×0.5-0.6 confirmed-form WITH block).
• Nyland confirmed-form: 2 MOTM-tier KO matches (8 saves total, 2 GA). Block present (Berg + Berge double-pivot). Full compound fires.
• Output: +2pt draw, -1pt ENG, -1pt NOR (shot volume that would have been goals instead gets saved).

Step 5 — Temperament

• Solbakken (NOR): Aggressive, lets Haaland hunt. No conservation vs CIV, no conservation vs BRA. Will not park the bus today.
• Tuchel (ENG): Aggressive, statement-making. No conservation. HT speech vs DRC shows willingness to attack from behind. Will press high.
• Both committed, both press. Heat eats the press by 60' regardless.
• Output: 0pt adjustment (already accounted for in Step 3).

Step 6 — Synthesis (show the math)

Deviation from WDM anchor: ENG −3pt, draw +3pt, NOR 0pt. All within ±5pt cap (R32-1). No deviation >10pt.

Final 90-minute probabilities: ENG 38% / draw 25% / NOR 37%

7K. Knockout Prediction (§7K format — R32/R16/QF/SF/Final)

Knockout decision tree: 90' (W/D/L) → ET (W/D/L conditional) → Pens (winner conditional) → Advance (unconditional).

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Sum: 100% ✓

Extra Time (conditional probabilities — given draw at 90')

Sum: 100% ✓

ET dynamics differ from 90': exhausted pressing, subs mostly used (ENG: 3-4 subs likely in 90' already), tactical caution in extra 30 min. Both managers go to bench attackers (Saka for ENG, Schjelderup→Bob already done). Penalty pedigree: Pickford is solid (Everton pens routine); Nyland is hot but not a proven pen-stopper. Slight pen edge to ENG.

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens reached)

Sum: 100% ✓

Advance Probability (unconditional — show the math)

Sum: 100% ✓

⚠️ mm3 calibration flag: R32 retrospective shows mm3 (me) had F-trio on R16 (BRA-NOR F 26/80, POR-ESP F 35/80, BEL-USA F 19/80) — the draw-hedge instinct failed when the upset landed as a WIN, not a draw. I have NOT underweighted NOR's 90' win probability (37% is the upper end of mm3's coin-flip band). This is the calibrated response to that miss: don't overcorrect toward draw when the upset signature is real.

Scoreline Distribution (90' only)

Top-5 (must sum to ~85%+): 1-1 (18) + 1-0_ENG (14) + 1-0_NOR (14) + 2-1_ENG (10) + 2-1_NOR (9) = 65% — leaving 35% tail (long tail of low-probability scorelines is expected in a coin-flip with multiple legit paths).

Sum: 100% ✓

Modal Match Path

Most likely full path: "1-1 at 90' (18%) → 1-1 ET (7%) → ENG win 4-3 on pens (4%)"

The combined path probability: 0.18 × 0.38 × 0.52 = ~3.6%.

Alternative modals:

• "1-0 ENG at 90' (14%)" — direct 90' win
• "1-0 NOR at 90' (14%)" — direct 90' upset (Haaland)
• "2-1 ENG at 90' (10%)" — Kane brace or Kane+Bellingham

8. Who Scores

Norway 🇳🇴

England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁧󠁿

9. Match Flow Projection

Most likely 90' outcome: 1-1 (18%) OR 1-0 to either side (28% combined)

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied:

• F4 Hot-GK compound (Nyland ×0.5-0.6 confirmed-form WITH block — R32 retrospective rule; 8 saves in 2 KO matches)
• F11 Heat penalty FULLY APPLIES (34°C > 33°C threshold, R32-5a: full penalty regardless of tier); asymmetric degradation
• F12 Conservation = 0% (QF, both managers aggressive, milestone motivations)
• F8 Possession flip = KO-favorite pattern (5 validations; ENG may end with <50%)
• F17 / R32-5f Hot-GK = system product (block + GK compound)
• F19 Late-arriving CM in low-event coin-flip (~5% each side)
• F22 Blowout exclusion (heat + low block + Nyland → 4+ margins 5-8%, NOT 15-20%)
• R32-1 Deviation cap: WDM fav_share 0.642 < 0.65 → cap positive deviation at +5pt (ENG final 38% is BELOW baseline 41%, no cap-binding)
• R32-2 Opponent-tier-weighted PPG (NOR edges ENG on weighted form 4.2 vs 3.7)
• R32-4 Draw band by fav_share: fav_share 0.60-0.70 → draw 20-25% (using 22% baseline, adjusted to 25%)
• R32-5a Heat tier modulator (above 33°C = full penalty regardless)
• R32-5b Heat age modulator (no application — neither midfield 33+)
• R32-5c Possession flip = KO-favorite pattern (cap ENG possession at 48-52%)
• R32-5e Blowout up-weight vs pressing sides (NOT applicable — NOR compact block, not pressing side; F22 exclusion fires)
• R32-5f Hot-GK = system product (Nyland confirmed-form WITH block = draw-forcer)
• R32-5g Milestone → goals for record-chasers (Haaland + Kane both qualify; both #1 scorer picks)
• R32-5h Draw-band-collapse on early goals (CONDITIONAL — if ENG scores by 25', draw band collapses to <10%)

Empirical calibration weights (Jun 29):

• Hot-GK (F4) applied at ×0.5-0.6 confirmed-form WITH block (Nyland)
• Sterile-domination (F13) ×2.0 — screened: ENG is NOT typically sterile (4/5 WC26 matches scored); their xG is 1.5-2.0 per game; NOR is the compact team so the screen would apply to ENG. Screen does NOT fire.
• Conservation (F12) ×1.5 — applied at 0 (F12 = 0)
• Context ×2.0 — applied at 0 (QF context, no group math)
• Momentum ×1.75 — NOR's hot streak (beat BRA) factored into opponent-tier-weighted form (already in WDM)

mm3 calibration flag: I had F-trio on R16 (BRA-NOR, POR-ESP, BEL-USA all F 26/35/19) — draw-hedge instinct failed when upsets landed as wins. I have NOT underweighted NOR's 90' win probability (37%). NOR has the upset signature: hot GK + compact block + opponent-tier-weighted form edge.

Gaps/flags:

• ⚠️ H2H data gap: no recent NOR-ENG competitive meeting in corpus. Not invented.
• ⚠️ Nusa QF suspension: 1Y confirmed (R32 vs CIV); not starting today (Schjelderup in) — QF ban risk avoided.
• ⚠️ Bellingham QF suspension: 1Y confirmed (R32 vs DRC); starting today — modified defensive intensity.
• ⚠️ Lightning-suspension window: 30% PoP @ kickoff → 32% by 19:00 EDT. If delay pushes kickoff to 18:00, partial heat-penalty neutralization.
• ⚠️ Pickford pen pedigree: solid but not proven elite (no WC26 shootout yet).

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "nor-vs-eng"
date = "2026-07-11"
kickoff_cest = "23:00"
group = "QF"
venue = "miami"
referee = "turpin"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
# KNOCKOUT: 90-minute outcomes (sum to 100 ±2)
favorite = "England"
win = 38    # ENG win in 90'
draw = 25   # Draw at 90'
loss = 37   # NOR win in 90'

[knockout]
# ET probabilities CONDITIONAL on draw at 90' (sum to 100)
# Pen probabilities CONDITIONAL on pens reached (sum to 100)
win_et = 33       # ENG win in ET (conditional)
draw_et = 38      # draw after ET → pens (conditional)
loss_et = 29      # NOR win in ET (conditional)
pen_win = 52      # ENG win on pens (conditional)
advance_a = 51    # ENG total advance probability
advance_b = 49    # NOR total advance probability

[scorelines]
# top 5 + other; UNIQUE keys; sum to ~100 with [other]
"1-1" = 18
"1-0_ENG" = 14
"1-0_NOR" = 14
"2-1_ENG" = 10
"2-1_NOR" = 9
"0-0" = 7
"2-0_ENG" = 5
"2-0_NOR" = 4
"3-1_ENG" = 4
"3-1_NOR" = 3
"2-2" = 4
"other" = 8

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Haaland", probability = 32 }
team_a_2 = { player = "Ødegaard", probability = 14 }
team_a_3 = { player = "Sørloth", probability = 10 }
team_a_4 = { player = "Schjelderup", probability = 7 }
team_a_5 = { player = "Heggem", probability = 5 }

team_b_1 = { player = "Kane", probability = 28 }
team_b_2 = { player = "Bellingham", probability = 12 }
team_b_3 = { player = "Madueke", probability = 9 }
team_b_4 = { player = "Saka", probability = 7 }
team_b_5 = { player = "Guéhi", probability = 5 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0     # 0-12 pts applied — 0% (QF, both managers aggressive)
finding_13_fires = false      # sterile-domination screen fired = NO (ENG is not typically sterile; NOR is compact but efficient on counters per F22)
finding_16_age_decline = ""   # no age-decline application (Haaland 25, Kane 32 = no decline)
penalty_band = "25-35%"       # Turpin career 0.40 pens/gm; not narrow high-pen archetype but statistically high-pen
projected_xg = 1.55           # ENG projected xG (slightly below season avg due to Nyland + block; confirmed-form ×0.5-0.6)

[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 48      # ENG projected possession ~48-52% per R32-5c (KO-favorite pattern: ENG won R16 with 33% poss; possession flip validated)
yellow_cards = "2-4"          # Turpin 3.25 Y/gm career → 2.4-2.6 discounted; modal 3, range 2-4
red_cards = 0                 # 0 modal, 15-20% red risk (DOGSO/2nd Y on Haaland or Kane runs)
penalty_chance = "25-35%"     # ≥1 pen; band not verdict (POR-DRC validation: high career pen rate ≠ certainty)

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: scout brief + lineups + team news (NOR/ENG) + referee brief (Turpin) + NWS weather forecast + canonical profiles (NOR/ENG/Miami) + sub-impact data + squad-values.json + wdm-data.json + predictions-summary + doc-1 (Findings 1-22) + doc-5 (6-step graph) + R32-1/R32-2/R32-4/R32-5a-h empirical refinements. Source archive: sources/matches/nor-vs-eng/