Norway vs. Ivory Coast - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, Round of 32 (Match #78) | Tue June 30, 2026 | AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX

Kickoff: 19:00 CEST / 17:00 UTC / 12:00 CDT | Referee: Jesús Valenzuela (Venezuela, CONMEBOL)

TL;DR

CIV slight WDM favorite 40% / NOR 38% / Draw 22% — coin-flip R32 with Brazil looming in R16; modal 1-0 to either side at 90' (28% combined).

• WDM anchor (after my +1pt NOR adjustment): NOR 38% / Draw 22% / CIV 40%. DEVIATION CAP ACTIVE (fav_share ~0.60 < 0.65; my NOR 38% is within the +5pt cap of 42%).
• Both teams full strength: NOR returns Haaland + Ødegaard + Nyland from MD3 10-man rotation (only Ryerson out, thigh); CIV at "intégralité de son groupe" (Maxifoot) with Doué replacing injured Singo at RB.
• F11 weather NEUTRALIZED: AT&T Stadium retractable roof CLOSED + climate-controlled ~21°C. No heat, no wind, no rain, no sun.
• Valenzuela (CONMEBOL, IFFHS CONMEBOL #1 2021): 1.50 Y/gm tournament rate (×0.30 discount from 5.0 career). Pen band ~30-40% (0.19-0.35 career rate, 1 pen at FRA-POL WC22 via VAR). Slight NOR tilt (Haaland pen-area threat).
• Set-piece goals are the live undercurrent: NOR 80.8% crossing accuracy in WC26 (3rd-best) + CIV Kessié set-piece header danger = CB header goal live on both sides.
• R16 = Brazil (Jul 5, MetLife): both teams play to WIN. Zero conservation. Solbakken is aggressive (built around Haaland); Faé wants to "make history" (first CIV WC knockout ever). MD3 was the rest game for both.

Prediction (90' scorelines, top 6): 1-0 NOR 14% · 0-1 CIV 14% · 1-1 9% · 2-1 CIV 9% · 2-1 NOR 8% · 0-0 8%. Advance probability: NOR 50% / CIV 50% (NOR: 38% 90'W + 22%×40% ET + 22%×30%×50% pens = 50.1%).

Watch: Haaland vs CIV's 2-GA defense — first goal decisive for the block to open. If CIV scores first (Bonny hold-up or Diomandé counter), NOR's 7-GA defense is exposed to Amad Diallo's 60'-on bench cameo (F18 game-state-conditional bench impact). If NOR scores first, CIV's Amad Diallo becomes a high-urgency impact sub chasing a 1-goal deficit.

1. Norway 🇳🇴 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: ~33 (Tier 1.5, rising)
• Manager: Ståle Solbakken (58, Norwegian; in role since Dec 2020)
• WC History: First knockout qualification since 1998 (28 years). Best finish: R16 (1998). 1994 was group exit; this is the team's deepest WC run since.
• Tournament form: W-W-L (4-1 IRQ, 3-2 SEN, 1-4 FRA-B). 6 pts, 2nd in Group I, +1 GD. MD3 was a 10-man rotation.
• Base camp: Greensboro, NC (UNCG, FieldTurf) — same surface as AT&T Stadium.

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3)

• Shape: 4-2-3-1 (Eurosport labels 4-3-3; same shape — Berg sits, Ødegaard has AM license)
• Style: Vertical/progressive, compact mid-block + quick transitions. Set-piece heavy (80.8% cross accuracy, 3rd in WC26). Haaland focal, Ødegaard creator.
• Press: High press with Haaland as the anchor. Not a deep-block team.

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

• Strengths: Generational finisher (Haaland); elite set-piece delivery (Ødegaard, 80.8% WC26 cross acc); structured pressing; fresh legs (10-man rotation MD3); high motivation (R32 first in 28 years; Golden Boot chase); FieldTurf surface familiarity.
• Weaknesses: Leaky defense (7 GA in 3 group matches, demolished 4-1 by FRA B-team); Ryerson out (only attacking RB replaced by more attack-minded but defensively weaker Pedersen); new midfield pairing (Berge-Berg, not tested vs Tier-1 opposition); squad depth averages quickly past the first 11.

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via NRK + KhelNow + Onze Mondial + Eurosport)

                  Nyland (GK)
  Pedersen – Ajer – Heggem – Wolfe
         Berge – Berg
         Ødegaard (c)
  Nusa – Haaland – Sørloth

Bench: Selvik, Tangvik (GK); Bjørkan, Østigård, Langås, Falchener, Aursnes, Thorsby, Thorstvedt, Aasgaard, Schjelderup, Hauge, Strand Larsen, Bobb, Ryerson (vest only).

2. Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: ~12 (Tier 2, AFCON 2025 champion)
• Manager: Emerse Faé (41, English-born Ivorian; AFCON 2025 winner as interim-turned-permanent)
• WC History: 3rd WC appearance (2006, 2010, 2026). Best finish: Group stage (never reached knockouts before). R32 = first-ever CIV WC knockout match.
• Tournament form: W-L-W (1-0 ECU, 1-2 GER, 2-0 CUR). 6 pts, 2nd in Group E, +2 GD. 2 GA in 3 matches — best defense in WC26 outside of GER.
• Base camp: Chester, PA (Subaru Park, grass). Surface mismatch with AT&T FieldTurf.

Tactical Identity (4-3-3)

• Shape: 4-3-3 (Faé's preference when at full strength)
• Style: Mid-block with quick wing transitions. Physical midfield (Sangaré-Kessié-Oulaï). Amad + Diomandé wide creators. Bonny as physical #9.
• Press: Mid-block (not high press). Build from deep (Fofana distribution weakness = no playing out from the back).

Key Players

Bench (Key)

• Amad Diallo (Man Utd) — bench again, Faé impact-sub pattern (MD1 90' winner as SUB). High 25-30min cameo probability from 60'.
• Simon Deli, S. Fofana, Adingra, Wahi, Singo (medically available), N'Dicka, Guessand, Lafont, Touré.

Strengths / Weaknesses

• Strengths: Best defensive record in WC26 outside GER (2 GA); AFCON 2025 champions (proven big-game temperament); physical midfield (Kessié + Sangaré + Oulaï); set-piece danger (Kessié headers); Amad Diallo impact sub; emotional motivation (first-ever WC knockout).
• Weaknesses: Goal-scoring modest (4 GF in 3 group matches); distribution weakness at GK (Fofana short passes under pressure = high-press trigger); Doué downgrade at RB; grass-trained squad on FieldTurf; bench impact sometimes sterile when chasing (F18 game-state conditional: when level/leading, Amad is great; when chasing, less so).

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via Onze Mondial + Maxifoot + Eurosport)

                  Y. Fofana (GK)
  Doué – Kossounou – Agbadou – Konan
       Sangaré – Kessié (c) – Oulaï
       Pépé – Bonny – Y. Diomandé

3. Head-to-Head Record

Maiden competitive meeting. No H2H psychological edge for either side. Pure form + squad quality + tactical fit is the analytical lens.

Source: Wikipedia "Norway at the FIFA World Cup" opponent-record table (web-fetched 30 Jun 2026); confirmed first-ever WC meeting.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis (F11 rules applied)

1. F11 heat threshold (>28°C) — DOES NOT FIRE. Roof closed, indoor ~21°C. No degradation of pressing (NOR is a high-pressing team; would be vulnerable to heat, but is not today).
2. F11 altitude threshold (≥2,000m) — DOES NOT APPLY. Arlington TX is ~200m elevation. No altitude factor.
3. F11 same-day travel — DOES NOT APPLY. Both teams arrived Jun 29 (1 day before). Symmetric inter-regional charter. No intercontinental jet-lag.
4. F11 intercontinental acclimatization — DOES NOT APPLY. Both teams have been in the US for 3+ weeks. Both base camps in similar heat bands to Arlington.
5. F11 depleted/disrupted favorite — DOES NOT APPLY. Both teams at full strength (single absences only: Ryerson NOR, Singo CIV — both replaced by competent deputies, not gutting).
6. Surface flag: NOR slight edge (~1-2pt). UNCG FieldTurf = AT&T FieldTurf. CIV trained on grass. This is a minor advantage in pass-and-move familiarity, especially for NOR's possession chains.

Net environmental impact: NOR +1pt edge (surface familiarity only). All other F11 factors neutralized.

5. Referee Analysis — Jesús Valenzuela Sáez (Venezuela, CONMEBOL)

Prediction

• Yellows: 1-3 total (modal 2). Discounted 70% from career 5.0 rate. CIV's physical midfield (Kessié/Sangaré) is the most likely card recipient; NOR disciplined under Solbakken.
• Reds: 0 expected. 4/4 prior WC matches with zero reds. Possible second-yellow in a heated moment, but very unlikely.
• Penalties: ~30-40% probability band for ≥1. NOT a near-certainty (POR-DRC Al-Jassim 0.40 → 0 pens validates the band approach). 1 penalty in 4 prior WC matches (Lewandowski, VAR-driven, 90+9' consolation). Tournament refs regress to leniency on game-deciding calls.
• Who does this favor? Slight NOR. NOR's tournament discipline (0 yellows MD3, low overall) + Haaland penalty-area threat + Valenzuela's 1-2pt home/away-asymmetry patterns. CIV's physical midfield is the most likely card recipient. CIV-NOR is the nominal HOME team (per FIFA listing) — Valenzuela has slight home-lean in 2026 WC sample (2/2 home wins), so CIV nominal-home might attract a touch more referee patience, but this is ~0.5pt at most.

TL;DR for Ref

• Valenzuela (VEN, 42, CONMEBOL). 6th WC match, 2nd knockout-stage. Tournament-lenient (×0.30 card discount), open-mic VAR, willing to point to spot. Expected: 1-3 yellows, 0 reds, 30-40% pen band for ≥1 (slight NOR tilt).

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 Haaland (NOR CF) vs Kossounou-Agbadou (CIV CB pair)

• Matchup: Haaland's movement + aerial timing + penalty-area instincts vs Kossounou's physical duels + Agbadou's PL-experienced reading.
• Tactical context: CIV plays mid-block, not high-press. Kossounou is the higher CB who steps up; Agbadou is the deeper CB. Haaland's diagonal runs (from CF to channel) exploit the gap between them.
• Key signal: Set-pieces. Ødegaard delivery + Ajer/Heggem headers are the breakthrough mechanism. If Haaland is marked out, the set-piece CB header is the next best scoring route.

6.2 Ødegaard (NOR AM) vs Sangaré (CIV DM) + Kessié (CIV CM)

• Matchup: Ødegaard's progressive passing + late arriving runs vs Sangaré's screening + Kessié's second-ball.
• Tactical context: CIV's midfield three is physically imposing. If they squeeze Ødegaard in the half-spaces, NOR's progressive chain breaks. But Berg+Berge double-pivot is conservative enough to absorb CIV's press.
• Key signal: Ødegaard's 80.8% cross accuracy is NOR's biggest weapon. CIV's full-backs (Doué/Konan) are vulnerable on crosses — Doué is the weak link (23, 5 caps, replacing injured Singo).

6.3 CIV counters (Diomandé + Amad) vs NOR full-backs (Pedersen + Wolfe)

• Matchup: Diomandé's dribbling + Amad's diagonal runs vs Pedersen's attack-minded positioning (replacing Ryerson) + Wolfe's defensive solidity.
• Tactical context: Ryerson's absence is real — Pedersen is more attack-minded, leaving space for Diomandé to attack 1v1. Wolfe on the left is the more defensive option. CIV's counters target the right side.
• Key signal: CIV's best chance is a Diomandé counter down the left, drawing Pedersen forward, then playing Amad into the channel. If this materializes, NOR's 7-GA defense is exposed.

6.4 Set-piece shootout

• NOR: 80.8% cross acc (3rd in WC26), Ødegaard delivery, Ajer/Heggem/Østigård headers, plus Haaland as a flick-on. Ajer scored unmarked from Ødegaard corner MD1.
• CIV: Kessié headers (scored vs GER MD2), Doué overlaps, Bonny as target.
• Predicted set-piece goals: 1-2 in the match (high probability for a single set-piece decisive moment).

6.5 First goal mechanism

• NOR first goal: Most likely via set-piece (Ødegaard delivery + CB header) or Haaland pen-area poach.
• CIV first goal: Most likely via Diomandé counter or Bonny hold-up + Pépé cutback.
• First goal win% (coin-flip): First-goal team wins ~63% of such matches historically. In a coin-flip R32, the first goal is disproportionately decisive.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — walked independently)

⚡ MANDATORY. I walked doc-5's 6-step decision graph + §6.6 WDM anchor independently. My resolution is below — show the math, state reasoning per step, name the modifier that fires.

Step 0 — Compute the WDM anchor (§6.6)

Per §6.6 formula: squad value ×3 + FIFA rank + tournament form (opponent-tier-weighted, R32-2) + qualifying form (×1 each); GDiff ×0.5 minor; pedigree EXCLUDED weight 0.0.

Step A — Raw factors:

Step B — Normalize shares (each factor 0-1): Done in table above.

Step C — Composite score:

score_NOR = 3.0 × 0.690 + 1.0 × 0.432 + 1.0 × 0.500 + 1.0 × 0.465 + 0.5 × 0.478
         = 2.070 + 0.432 + 0.500 + 0.465 + 0.239
         = 3.706

score_CIV = (3.0 + 1.0 + 1.0 + 1.0 + 0.5) − 3.706 = 6.5 − 3.706 = 2.794

Step D — Convert to probabilities:

fav_share = 3.706 / 6.5 = 0.570

fav_baseline (NOR is WDM "fav" by quality score) = 28 + (0.570 − 0.50) × 90 = 34.3% → clamp to 35%
draw = 23% (knockout baseline, R32-4: 20-25% for fav_share 0.60-0.70)
dog_baseline (CIV) = 100 − 35 − 23 = 42%

My independent WDM calc: NOR 35% / Draw 23% / CIV 42%

Note on prepared baseline: The operator's WDM baseline doc (nor-vs-civ-2026-wdm-baseline.md) presents NOR 37% / Draw 23% / CIV 40%. This is within ±2pt of my independent calc (35/23/42) — the difference is likely FIFA rank assumptions and slight qualifying PPG variance. The doc's stated fav_share is ~0.60, mine is 0.570. Both are well below the 0.65 cap. I will use the prepared baseline as my starting anchor (consistent with the operator's lead-stage computation) and apply my adjustments from there.

WDM ANCHOR: NOR 37% / Draw 23% / CIV 40%. DEVIATION CAP ACTIVE (fav_share ~0.60 < 0.65; max +5pt positive to WDM "fav" NOR = 42%).

Step 1 — Group Context

This is R32 (knockout), not group stage — but the bracket context + group finish matter.

• Group finish: Both teams finished 2nd in their groups (NOR Group I, CIV Group E). 2nd-vs-2nd R32 slot — Boston Globe path analysis flags this as the harder R32→R16 lane.
• Bracket draw (confirmed via Wikipedia): R32 #78 (NOR vs CIV, Jun 30 Arlington) → R16 (Jul 5, MetLife) → QF (Jul 11, Miami Gardens).
• R16 reward: 🇧🇷 BRAZIL (R32 #74 winner, BRA 2-1 JPN). Brutal. Both teams are playing for the right to face the tournament favourite. NO conservation incentive from either side.
• Must-win flag: YES for both teams. R32 elimination = season over. No "draw suffices" — draw at 90' goes to ET/PK.
• MD3 was the rest game for both:
  • NOR: Solbakken rotated 10 players. Haaland/Ødegaard/Nyland all benched. 1-4 loss to FRA B-team is a tactical decision, not a form signal.
  • CIV: Won MD3 2-0 vs CUR (Pépé brace, MOTM) but explicitly subbed Pépé at 67' "to rest for the bigger game" (AP narrative).
• Yellow card suspension risk: Players on 1 yellow carry risk. Need careful tackling in R32 to avoid R16 suspension (vs Brazil). This is a small, second-order effect on tackle intensity.

Output: Need-to-win = YES for both teams. F12 conservation = 0% (R32 knockout, both must-win, R16 = no easy path, both managers have full XI). No "draw-suffices" math. No "GD-chase mode" (knockout, not group). No "bracket optimization" (both teams are in the same brutal R16 slot).

Step 2 — Conservation (Finding 12)

Resolved independently per doc-5 Step 2 + the F12 modifiers.

• NOR (Solbakken):

  • Tier 1.5 (rising) — NOT in strict Tier-1 list. Reduced conservation discount applies.
  • Aggressive manager (MD1 4-1 IRQ with full XI; MD2 3-2 SEN with full XI; MD3 10-man rotation was explicit R32-rest, not conservation). Aggressive posture = 0% discount.
  • Milestone motivation ACTIVE (hard rule): Haaland 12-game intl scoring streak; WC26 Golden Boot co-leader at 4 goals (level with Mbappé); first NOR WC knockout in 28 years. Hard rule: milestone = NO conservation. Haaland plays 90 minutes.
  • R16 = Brazil = brutal. No "save for later" incentive.
  • NOR conservation: 0%.

• CIV (Faé):

  • Tier 2 (AFCON champion). Reduced conservation discount applies.
  • Pragmatic-attack manager. "We want to make history" (Faé pre-MD3). Aggressive posture even when a draw would have sufficed (won MD3 2-0 when draw sufficed).
  • No specific star milestone (Pépé is 38yo, but no specific record being chased).
  • R16 = Brazil = brutal. No "save for later" incentive.
  • CIV conservation: 0%.

Output: F12 = 0% for both teams. No conservation discount applied. Both go full strength, both managers will play to win, both will not rotate to save legs for R16. (MD3 was the rest game for both — they're already fresh.)

Empirical weight (F12 ×1.5 from Jun 29 calibration): 0% × 1.5 = 0% delta applied.

Step 3 — Weather × Style (Finding 11)

• NOR style: High-pressing, vertical/progressive, set-piece heavy. Vulnerable to heat (pressing degrades by 60' in >28°C conditions per F11).
• CIV style: Mid-block + quick wing transitions. Less vulnerable to heat (mid-block conserves energy; transitions are short bursts).
• Match-day weather: AT&T Stadium retractable roof CLOSED + climate-controlled ~21°C. Indoor, neutral conditions.
• Heat threshold (>28°C): DOES NOT FIRE. Indoor 21°C is below threshold. No pressing degradation.
• Wind, rain, sun: All zero (enclosed). No factors.
• Altitude: Arlington TX ~200m. Does not apply (threshold ≥2,000m per F11).

Output: F11 = NEUTRALIZED. Roof closed = no weather penalty. No deltas applied.

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack (sterile-domination screen, F13/F17)

• Who dominates the ball?

  • NOR: High press + vertical possession. Tends to dominate possession vs open-shape opponents.
  • CIV: Mid-block. Doesn't try to dominate possession; defends and counters.
  • Projected: NOR is the possession-dominant team (60-65% possession expected).

• Sterile-domination screen (apply to the possession-dominant team, F17 — DIRECTION-AGNOSTIC):

  • Flag 1: No finisher? NO. Haaland is one of the world's elite #9s. 12-game intl scoring streak. Not age-declined (25, peak).
  • Flag 2: Wrong mechanism? NO. NOR is not playing tiki-taka vs a deep low block. CIV plays mid-block with a physical midfield, not a 5-4-1/5-3-2 parking the bus. Ødegaard's set-piece delivery (80.8% cross acc) is the right mechanism vs CIV's 2-GA defense.
  • Flag 3: Overload without penetration? NO. Haaland guarantees penetration via diagonal runs and penalty-area instincts.
  • Flag 4 (NEW, F17): No specialist striker in the squad? NO. Haaland is the specialist. 20+ goal/season finisher, generational #9.

• Does the screen fire? NO. NOR is a possession-dominant team with a proper finisher, right mechanism, and guaranteed penetration. CIV is not a deep low block. NOR is unlikely to sterile-dominate.

• CIV's defensive record (2 GA, +2 GD): This IS a real signal. CIV has the best defense in WC26 outside of GER. This is captured in the WDM's GDiff factor (×0.5, CIV share 0.522) and is the reason CIV is the WDM "dog with higher probability" at 40%.

Output: F13/F17 sterile-domination screen does NOT fire. The WDM's CIV defensive edge is already captured. No additional +5-10% to draw from sterile-domination. Draw remains at WDM baseline (23%, lower end of R32-4 band).

Empirical weight (F13 ×2.0 from Jun 29 calibration): ×0 (screen doesn't fire) = 0 delta applied.

Step 5 — Temperament & Coach Discipline

• NOR (Solbakken): Disciplined, structured pressing, card-light (0 yellows MD3, 2 yellows MD1+MD2 combined = 0.67/match). Tactical fouls minimal. Game-plan execution HIGH (W-W in MD1+MD2, then B-team loss MD3 by design).
• CIV (Faé): Pragmatic, attack-capable, AFCON 2025 final experience (managed knockout football). Card-light MD3 (0), 4 in MD1 (one carryover), 1 in MD2. Physical midfield (Kessié + Sangaré + Oulaï) fouls when needed. Veteran back four (Doué/Kossounou/Agbadou/Konan) is card-disciplined.
• Both managers have HIGH game-plan executability. Both will execute as designed.

Output: Temperament is not a modifier here. Both managers are disciplined executors. No "chaos" or "indiscipline" risk. Card expectations 1-2 yellows each side (consistent with Valenzuela's tournament-lenient profile). No deltas applied.

Step 6 — Synthesis (show the math, WDM anchor → adjusted)

Starting from WDM anchor: NOR 37% / Draw 23% / CIV 40% (CIV is WDM "dog" with higher probability due to GDiff factor; NOR is WDM "fav" by quality score; DEVIATION CAP ACTIVE at +5pt to NOR = max 42%).

Note on the -1pt CIV / +1pt NOR transfer: My synthesis takes 1pt from CIV (defensive record may not fully close the gap vs a Haaland-motivated NOR with set-piece delivery) and adds 1pt to NOR for the same total. The other adjustments (Haaland, pen band, surface) are added to NOR. The draw goes from 23% to 22% (small reduction reflecting the R32 = no draw-suffices, must-win context).

Final 90' probability: NOR 38% / Draw 22% / CIV 40%.

This represents:

• A +1pt lift to NOR (WDM baseline 37% → 38%) for Haaland milestone + set-piece delivery + Valenzuela pen band.
• A -1pt draw (WDM baseline 23% → 22%) for R32 = no draw-suffices, both must-win.
• No movement to CIV (WDM baseline 40% → 40%).

Empirical multipliers applied: conservation ×1.5 (0% × 1.5 = 0), sterile ×2.0 (0% × 2.0 = 0), context ×2.0 (-1pt × 2.0 = -2pt draw, but I conservatively applied -1pt to keep draw in the R32-4 band), momentum ×1.75 (0 net, NOR MD3 loss was rotation, CIV MD3 win with rest signals), hot_gk ×0.25 (0 net, both GKs are reputation-only with no confirmed tournament form).

This must reconcile with the 90' table in §7K below: NOR 38% / Draw 22% / CIV 40%. ✓

6.6. WDM Baseline Anchor (Weighted Decision Matrix)

⚡ The starting win/draw/loss probabilities MUST be derived from the WDM formula, not gut feel. My independent WDM computation is shown in §6.5 Step 0. Below is the summary.

Summary

WDM factors (my independent calc):

  squad:       NOR €400M   / CIV €180M   → NOR share 0.690
  fifa:        NOR rank ~33 / CIV rank ~12 → NOR share 0.432
  form:        NOR 3.0 wPPG / CIV 3.0 wPPG → NOR share 0.500
  qualifying:  NOR 2.0 PPG  / CIV 2.3 PPG  → NOR share 0.465
  gdiff (×0.5): NOR +1 / CIV +2            → NOR share 0.478

Composite: NOR score = 3.0×0.690 + 1.0×0.432 + 1.0×0.500 + 1.0×0.465 + 0.5×0.478 = 3.706
           CIV score = 6.5 − 3.706 = 2.794
fav_share = 3.706/6.5 = 0.570
fav_baseline (NOR) = 28 + (0.570−0.50)×90 = 34.3% → clamp 35%
draw = 23% (knockout, R32-4: 20-25% for fav_share 0.60-0.70)
CIV = 100 − 35 − 23 = 42%

My independent WDM: NOR 35% / Draw 23% / CIV 42%.

Operator-prepared WDM baseline (from nor-vs-civ-2026-wdm-baseline.md): NOR 37% / Draw 23% / CIV 40%.

Difference (~2pt): Likely FIFA rank assumptions and slight qualifying PPG variance. Both are within the coin-flip range; both are well below the 0.65 deviation cap.

I use the prepared baseline as my starting anchor (NOR 37% / Draw 23% / CIV 40%) and apply my adjustments from there. The deviation cap is active (fav_share ~0.60 < 0.65; max +5pt positive to WDM "fav" NOR = 42%).

Pedigree excluded (validated)

WC pedigree is EXCLUDED (weight 0.0 per 51-match optimization). NOR's "first knockout in 28 years" is a motivation signal (F12 milestone), not a quality signal. CIV's "first knockout ever" is an emotional signal (F12 need-to-win), not a quality signal.

GDiff downgraded to ×0.5 (R32-5, Jun 30)

GDiff is a minor defensive-solidity check (×0.5), not a primary factor. The R32 retrospective invalidated the original ×2.0 weight (GDiff pointed the wrong way on GER-PAR and NED-MAR upsets). Flag when a high-squad-value team concedes 5+ in the group stage — NOR's 7 GA is a squad-value-blind warning. This is captured in my synthesis: CIV's 2 GA is the WDM "dog" advantage that flips the WDM probability (NOR fav by quality, CIV with higher probability).

When to deviate >10pt from WDM

• Tournament-team overperformance: Neither NOR (Tier 1.5 rising) nor CIV (Tier 2, AFCON champion) is in the strict tournament-team list (JPN, BRA, ARG, FRA, ESP, ENG, POR). NED and GER are also on the validated list. NOR has NOT yet proven tournament-team escalation in 2026 (lost 1-4 to FRA B-team in MD3, but that was a 10-man rotation). CIV has NOT proven it either (lost 1-2 to GER, beat ECU 1-0, beat CUR 2-0).
• Active crisis: Neither team is in crisis. Both at full strength. No deviation warranted.
• Hot-GK + low-block compound (F4): Neither GK is in confirmed hot-GK form. Reputational only = ×0.25. No deviation.
• CONMEBOL reactive blueprint (R32-3): CIV is CAF, not CONMEBOL. CIV plays 4-3-3 mid-block, not 5-3-2 low block. R32-3 does NOT fully apply. No deviation.

Net: no >10pt deviation from WDM. My final 38/22/40 is within ±2pt of the WDM anchor (37/23/40).

7K. Knockout Prediction (R32, decision-tree format)

In knockouts, a draw at 90' is a REAL outcome. Decision tree: 90' → ET → Pens. I break this down explicitly per §7K.

Draw band by fav_share (R32-4, Jun 30): fav_share 0.60-0.70 → draw at 90' = 20-25%. My draw at 90' is 22% (within the band).

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Extra Time (conditional probabilities — given match reached ET at 1-1 or 2-2)

ET dynamics: Tired legs after 90' (especially CIV's physical 3-CM); tactical caution; 30 min not 90 min; sub limits nearly exhausted (most starters will have been subbed by 105'); Haaland is a penalty-area threat in tired defense; Kessié set-piece header remains live; CIV has more ET/KO experience via AFCON 2025 final.

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens reached after 0-0 or 1-1 ET)

Pen dynamics: Both GKs are reputation-only (no confirmed tournament shootout form, no prior WC shootout wins). Both have a mix of clinical + less-clinical takers. Coin-flip.

Advance Probability (unconditional)

Coin-flip R32. NOR's slight 90' probability edge (38% vs 40%) closes in ET/Pens because NOR has the slight Haaland pen-area threat edge in ET, and pens are a 50/50.

Scoreline Distribution (90' only, top 6 + other)

Modal Match Path

Single most likely path: 1-0 NOR at 90' (14%) → NOR advance 14%.

Second most likely path: 0-1 CIV at 90' (14%) → CIV advance 14%.

Third most likely path: 1-1 at 90' (9%) → 0-0 ET (penalty shootout) → 50/50.

Modal full path: 1-0 NOR at 90' (Haaland goal, ~14% path probability). This is the single most likely full-match path. The Haaland 1-0 is the modal scoreline because NOR's WDM "fav" by quality (€400M squad, mostly in Haaland) + Haaland milestone (12-game streak, Golden Boot co-leader, first KO in 28 years) + set-piece delivery (80.8% cross acc) + surface edge combine to give NOR a slight probability edge in the modal low-scoring R32 scenario.

8. Who Scores

Norway 🇳🇴

Ivory Coast 🇨🇮

9. Match Flow Projection

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied:

• F1 (draw epidemic): Draw band 22% at 90' (within R32-4 20-25% for fav_share 0.60-0.70).
• F4 (hot-GK): ×0.25 weight (reputation-only for both Nyland and Y. Fofana; no confirmed tournament form).
• F6 (CB set-piece): Ajer/Heggem (NOR), Kossounou/Agbadou (CIV) included in Who Scores at 4-6% combined.
• F8 (referee leniency): Valenzuela ×0.30 tournament card discount. 30-40% pen band.
• F9 (possession can flip): NOR 60-65% expected; CIV may finish with 35-40% if they score first and sit deep.
• F10 (star-as-creator): Ødegaard may assist more than score; Haaland may score from Ø set-piece.
• F11 (physical & environmental): Roof closed, F11 fully neutralized. Surface familiarity edge to NOR (+0.5pt).
• F12 (conservation): 0% for both (R32 must-win, no conservation applies; both managers aggressive; Haaland milestone = hard rule = no early sub).
• F13 (sterile-domination): Does NOT fire (NOR has Haaland, proper finisher; CIV not deep low block).
• F14 (altitude): Arlington TX ~200m; threshold ≥2,000m; does not apply.
• F15 (pen rate band): 30-40% for Valenzuela; present as band, not verdict.
• F16 (age-decline): No application. Haaland 25 (peak); Ødegaard 27 (peak). CIV's Pépé 38 (but not primary scorer option; Adingra sub; F16 doesn't apply because Pépé is not a "scorer #1" — he's #4 option).
• F17 (sterile-domination, direction-agnostic): Applied to NOR (possession-dominant). Does not fire.
• F18 (bench impact, game-state-conditional): Amad Diallo on CIV bench from 60' — high impact when CIV level/leading. NOR bench (Strand Larsen, Schjelderup) game-state-conditional.
• F19 (low-event late-winner): Modal 1-0 to either side. Late-arriving CM (Berg, Oulaï) at ~5% in non-scorer band. R32 = low combined xG likely (~2.5).
• F20 (favorite double-underestimate): Does not apply — this is a coin-flip, not a clear favorite.
• F21 (late-goal explosion after 0-0): Possible if 0-0 at 70'. 0-0 explosion with attacking triple-sub is a live scenario (Solbakken would attack; Faé would counter). 4+ margin at 5-8% only.
• F22 (blowout): 4+ margin at 5-8% (not 15-20%). CIV is a defensive organization, not an open/transition underdog. F22 limit applies.

R32 findings applied:

• R32-1 (deviation cap): Active. My NOR 38% is within the +5pt cap (42%).
• R32-2 (opponent-tier-weighted form): Applied. NOR and CIV both 3.0 weighted PPG; form share 0.50.
• R32-3 (CONMEBOL reactive blueprint): Does not fully apply. CIV is CAF, not CONMEBOL. CIV plays 4-3-3 mid-block, not 5-3-2 low block. CIV's defensive organization is the WDM GDiff factor, not the CONMEBOL blueprint.
• R32-4 (draw band by fav_share): fav_share ~0.60 → 20-25% draw band. My draw at 90' = 22%. ✓
• R32-5 (GDiff ×0.5 downgraded): Applied. GDiff is a minor defensive-solidity check, not a primary factor.

Empirical weights applied (Jun 29 calibration):

• Hot-GK: ×0.25 (both GKs reputation-only)
• Sterile: ×2.0 (does not fire)
• Context: ×2.0 (R32 = must-win, slight draw reduction)
• Momentum: ×1.75 (0 net, NOR MD3 loss was rotation, CIV MD3 win with rest signals)
• Conservation: ×1.5 (0%, doesn't apply)

Source-grounding: All factual claims (rankings, manager names, form, injuries, referee stats) traced to specific gathered files. No betting odds, no expert picks, no pundit aggregations.

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "nor-vs-civ"
date = "2026-06-30"
kickoff_cest = "19:00"
group = "R32"
venue = "dallas"
referee = "valenzuela"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
# KNOCKOUT: win/draw/loss = team A win in 90' / draw at 90' / team B win in 90' (sum to 100)
# NOR is team A (alphabetical first in code: nor < civ)
favorite = "CIV"  # WDM has CIV with slight probability edge (40% > 38%)
win = 38           # NOR win in 90'
draw = 22          # draw at 90'
loss = 40          # CIV win in 90'

[knockout]
# ET probabilities CONDITIONAL on draw at 90' (sum to 100 given ET reached)
# Pen probabilities CONDITIONAL on pens reached (sum to 100 given pens reached)
win_et = 40        # NOR win in ET (conditional on draw at 90')
draw_et = 30       # draw after ET → pens (conditional on draw at 90')
loss_et = 30       # CIV win in ET (conditional on draw at 90')
pen_win = 50       # NOR win on pens (conditional on pens reached)
advance_a = 50     # NOR total advance probability (unconditional)
advance_b = 50     # CIV total advance probability (unconditional)

[scorelines]
# top 5 ranked scorelines with probabilities (sum to ~100 with [other])
# Note: "2-1" combines NOR 2-1 (8%) + CIV 2-1 (9%) = 17% total
"2-1" = 17         # 8% NOR 2-1 + 9% CIV 2-1 (combined)
"1-0" = 14         # NOR 1-0
"0-1" = 14         # CIV 0-1 (i.e., 1-0 CIV)
"1-1" = 9          # draw at 90' (→ ET)
"0-0" = 8          # draw at 90' (→ ET)
# Other (combined): 38% — covers 2-0, 0-2, 3-1, 3-2, 2-2, 3-0, 3-3, 4-1, 4-2 etc.

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Haaland", probability = 30 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Diomandé", probability = 18 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0     # 0% applied (R32 must-win, both teams full strength)
finding_13_fires = false      # sterile-domination does NOT fire (NOR has Haaland, CIV not deep low block)
finding_16_age_decline = ""  # no age-decline applied (Haaland 25 peak; Pépé 38 but not #1 option)
penalty_band = "30-40%"       # Valenzuela career 0.19-0.35 pen/gm, tournament 0.25
projected_xg = 1.5            # NOR's projected xG (Haaland focal, Ødegaard creator, set-piece heavy)

[predicted_stats]
# Predicted match stats (ranges OK)
favorite_possession = 60      # NOR possession % (possession-dominant team)
yellow_cards = "2-3"          # total yellows (Valenzuela tournament 1.50 Y/gm, this match slightly hotter)
red_cards = 0                 # 0 expected (4/4 prior WC matches with 0 reds for Valenzuela)
penalty_chance = "30-40%"     # Valenzuela pen band per F15

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: sources/matches/nor-vs-civ/ (scout, team-news-nor, team-news-civ, referee, weather) + sources/reference/ (teams/nor, teams/civ, referees/valenzuela, venues/dallas) + experiments/squad-values.json. Method: doc-1 Findings + doc-5 decision graph + §6.6 WDM anchor. Model: MiniMax-M3. WDM anchor: NOR 37% / Draw 23% / CIV 40%; my final: NOR 38% / Draw 22% / CIV 40% (within R32-1 deviation cap of +5pt). Advance: NOR 50.1% / CIV 49.9%. Modal path: 1-0 NOR at 90' (14% path probability).