Netherlands vs. Tunisia - Consensus Ensemble
2026 World Cup, Group F MD3 | June 25, 2026 | Kansas City (OPEN-AIR)
⚡ TASK-99: independent resolution | ⚠️ RAPID (no gathering) | NED draw-suffices (qualified); TUN eliminated (0pts, -8 GD)
Referee: TBD (RAPID — no gathering)
TL;DR
NED ~73% / Draw ~20% / TUN ~8%. Modal scoreline: NED 2-0 (consensus, ~16%). Gakpo #1 (~22%). Dead rubber — NED qualified (4pts, qualified), TUN eliminated (0pts, -8 GD, 0 goals in 2 matches, 9 conceded). The spread is WIDE (65-81%) because of Koeman rotation uncertainty: does he rest 3-5 starters for R32 (g4: 65%) or play tournament-team-escalation full-strength (g5: 81%)? Finding 22 blowout partial fires (TUN GK Chamakh is a 24yo rookie, NOT veteran — no ECU-CUR exclusion). TUN's only shield (hot-GK + low block) does NOT apply. Renard is 4 days into the job (bounce = zero).
- Win%: NED 73% / DRAW 20% / TUN 7% — 16pt spread (65-81%) = rotation uncertainty.
- Scoreline: NED 2-0 modal (mm3 15%, g4 18%, g5 3-0). Runner-up: NED 3-0.
- Who Scores: ✅ Gakpo #1 (~22%) — 2 braces in 2 matches. Brobbey alt (~15%, 2 braces MD2). Mitoma/Kubo OUT (tournament-team depth absorbs, Finding 22 extension).
- Finding 12: ⚠️ ~4-8% NED conservation — Koeman pragmatic + qualified + weakest opponent. BUT tournament-team escalation offsets (g5: -4pt only; g4: full -8pt). THE disagreement.
- Finding 22 blowout: ⚠️ partial fires — TUN open/broken shape (not deep block) + Chamakh rookie GK (not veteran) = no ECU-CUR exclusion. 4+ margin 12-15%.
- Finding 4a: ✅ does NOT fire — Xavi Simons OUT (single creator absence, -3-5pt). Tournament-team depth absorbs.
Model Comparison (INDEPENDENT — 16pt spread on rotation read)
| Model | NED | Draw | TUN | Modal | F12 conservation | F22 blowout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 72% | 23% | 5% | NED 2-0 (15%) | -4pt (Tournament Team offset) | 12-15% |
| g4 | 65% | 20% | 15% | NED 2-0 (18%) | -8pt (full, Koeman pragmatic) | 12% (capped rotation) |
| g5 | 81% | 16% | 3% | NED 3-0 (15%) | -4pt (tournament-team dominates) | 12-15% |
| Consensus | 73% | 20% | 7% | NED 2-0 | -4 to -8pt | partial |
Spread: 16pt (65-81%) — g4 sees Koeman rotating heavily (TUN still outclassed but gap narrows); g5 sees tournament-team escalation dominating. mm3 splits the difference. Honest uncertainty on a dead rubber.
Consensus ensemble for NED-TUN. 3 models resolved INDEPENDENTLY (TASK-99). ⚠️ RAPID (no gathering). Full post-event after kickoff. Last updated Jun 25, 2026.