World Cup 2026 — Predictions vs Results
Master Summary Table
Completed Matches (13 validated)
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Actual | Winner | Score Hit | Who Scores | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAN vs BiH | CAN 1-0 (35%) | CAN ~50% | 1-1 | Draw | ❌ (#3) | ✅ Both mechanisms | ~73% |
| USA vs PAR | USA 2-1 (30%) | USA ~70% | 4-1 | ✅ USA | ❌ (#4) | ✅ Balogun (#2) | ~75% |
| QAT vs SUI | SUI 2-0 (35%) | SUI ~70% | 1-1 | Draw | ❌ | ❌ 0/2 | ~56% |
| HAI vs SCO | SCO 2-0 (30%) | SCO ~78% | 0-1 | ✅ SCO | ❌ | ✅ McGinn (#3) | ~78% |
| BRA vs MAR | BRA 2-1 (28%) | ~45% | 1-1 | Draw | ✅ (#2) | ✅✅ Vini #1 + Saibari #3 | ~82% |
| AUS vs TUR | TUR 2-0 (30%) | TUR ~83% | 2-0 | ❌ AUS! | ❌ | ❌ 0/6 | ~45% |
| GER vs CUR | GER 4-0 (28%) | GER ~94% | 7-1 | ✅ GER | ❌ | ✅✅ Havertz #1 (brace) + Musiala #2 | ~72% |
| NED vs JPN | NED 2-1 (18%) | NED ~46% | 2-2 | Draw | ⚠️ (draw #2, wrong score) | ❌ but Van Dijk #5 + Kubo #2 assist | ~79% |
| CIV vs ECU | 1-1 Draw (18%) | ECU 35%, CIV 35% | 1-0 | ⚠️ CIV (coin-flip) | ✅ (#3) | ✅✅ Amad #1 (sub!) | ~78% |
| SWE vs TUN | SWE 2-1 (18%) | SWE ~60% | 5-1 | ✅ SWE | ❌ (margin way off) | ✅✅ Gyökeres #1 + Isak #2 | ~72% |
| ESP vs CPV | ESP 3-0 (25%) | ESP ~90% | 0-0 | Draw! | ❌ | ❌ Yamal benched | ~30% (biggest miss) |
| BEL vs EGY | BEL 2-0 (20%) | BEL ~62% | 1-1 | Draw | ✅ (#3 1-1!) | ⚠️ Salah assisted, Lukaku forced OG | ~65% |
| KSA vs URU | URU 1-0 (rev 49%) | URU 49% (rev) | 1-1 | Draw | ✅ (#2 1-1) | ⚠️ Al-Amri (CB!) scored | ~70% |
| IRN vs NZL | IRN 1-0 (rev 53%) | IRN 53% (rev) | 2-2 | Draw | ⚠️ (draw in #1-2) | ✅✅ Just #2 + Mohebi #3 HIT | ~75% (best revision) |
Pending Matches (predictions made, awaiting result)
| Match | Prediction | Win % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRA vs SEN | FRA 2-1 (19%) | FRA 60% / D 22% / SEN 18% | ⏳ Jun 16, 3 PM ET (peak heat) |
| ARG vs ALG | ARG 2-0 (21%) | ARG 66% / D 20% / ALG 14% | ⏳ Jun 16, 9 PM ET |
| AUT vs JOR | AUT 2-0 (20%) | AUT 63% / D 22% / JOR 15% | ⏳ Jun 16, 9 PM PT |
| IRA vs NOR | NOR 2-0 (20%) | NOR 64% / D 21% / IRQ 15% | ⏳ Jun 16, 6 PM ET |
Who Scores Tracker
| # | Match | Predicted #1 (Team A) | Hit? | Predicted #1 (Team B) | Hit? | Actual Scorers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAN vs BiH | (no formal prediction) | — | (no formal prediction) | — | Lukic, Larin |
| 2 | USA vs PAR | Pulisic (~35%) | ❌ (2 assists) | Gómez (~15%) | ❌ | Balogun (x2), Reyna, OG / Maurício |
| 3 | QAT vs SUI | (early format) | — | Amdouni | ❌ | Khoukhi / Embolo |
| 4 | HAI vs SCO | Nazon (~20%) | ❌ | McTominay (~28%) | ❌ | McGinn (#3 hit ✅) |
| 5 | BRA vs MAR | Vini Jr (~25%) | ✅ | Diaz (~18%) | ❌ | Vini Jr / Saibari (#3 ✅) |
| 6 | AUS vs TUR | Souttar (~15%) | ❌ | Güler (~28%) | ❌ | Irankunda, Metcalfe / nobody |
| 7 | GER vs CUR | Havertz (~25%) | ✅✅ (brace) | Juninho Bacuna (~8%) | ❌ | Havertz (x2), Musiala, Nmecha, Schlotterbeck, Brown, Undav / Comenencia |
| 8 | NED vs JPN | Gakpo (~20%) | ❌ | Ueda (~18%) | ❌ | Van Dijk (#5 ✅), Summerville / Nakamura, Kamada (Kubo #2 assist ✅) |
| 9 | CIV vs ECU | Amad (~15%) | ✅ (sub!) | Valencia (~15%) | N/A (0 goals) | Amad (sub winner ✅) / nobody |
| 10 | SWE vs TUN | Gyökeres (~22%) | ✅ | Hannibal (~12%) | ⚠️ (assist) | Gyökeres ✅, Isak (#2 ✅), Ayari x2, Svanberg / Rekik (Hannibal assist) |
| 11 | ESP vs CPV | Yamal (~25%) | ❌ (benched!) | — | — | nobody (0-0) |
| 12 | BEL vs EGY | De Bruyne (~18%) | ❌ | Salah (~20%) | ⚠️ (assisted) | Hany OG (Lukaku forced) / Ashour (Salah assist) |
| 13 | KSA vs URU | Al-Dawsari (~18%, rev) | ❌ | Núñez (~22%, rev) | ❌ (subbed 46'!) | Al-Amri (CB!) / Maxi Araújo (rebound) |
| 14 | IRN vs NZL | Taremi (~22%, rev) | ❌ (subbed 80') | Wood (~18%, rev) | ⚠️ (2 assists!) | Rezaeian, Mohebi (#3 ✅) / Just (#2 ✅ brace) |
Who Scores hit rate: #1 scorer correct in 5/11 (45%). At least one top-3 hit in 7/11 (64%). Both scorers hit in 3/11 (BRA-MAR, SWE-TUN, IRN-NZL). IRN-NZL was the best revision result: Just (#2) + Mohebi (#3) both hit.
Referee Tracker
| # | Match | Referee | Predicted | Actual | Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAN-BIH | Tello (ARG) | moderate | 5Y, 0R | ✅ |
| 2 | USA-PAR | Makkelie (NED) | moderate | 6Y, 0R | ✅ |
| 3 | QAT-SUI | Martínez (HON) | ~4.3 | 3Y, 0R | ⚠️ low |
| 4 | HAI-SCO | Ghorbal (ALG) | ~3.9 | 4Y, 0R | ✅ |
| 5 | BRA-MAR | Vinčić (SVN) | ~4.1 | 2Y, 0R | ❌ low |
| 6 | AUS-TUR | Valenzuela (VEN) | moderate | 1Y, 0R | ⚠️ low |
| 7 | GER-CUR | Jayed (MAR) | ~3.9 | 0R, 1P | ✅ pen |
| 8 | NED-JPN | Elfath (USA) | ~3.0-3.4 | ~3Y, 0R | ✅ |
| 9 | CIV-ECU | Letexier (FRA) | ~3.8 | 4Y, 0R | ✅ |
| 10 | SWE-TUN | Falcón Pérez (ARG) | ~4-4.5 | 0R | TBD |
| 11 | ESP-CPV | Makhadmeh (JOR) | lenient | 1Y, 0R | ✅ lenient |
| 12 | BEL-EGY | Abatti (BRA) | ~3.8 | 4Y, 0R | ✅ |
| 13 | KSA-URU | Mariani (ITA) | ~3.2 | 1Y, 0R | ✅ lenient |
| 14 | IRN-NZL | Ramos (MEX) | ~2-3 | 1Y, 0R | ✅ lenient |
Referee hit rate: Red cards 100% (12/12). Card count within range ~70%. Tournament leniency confirmed: last 4 matches all ≤1Y. Discount upgraded to 20-25%.
Cumulative Accuracy (13 matches)
| Component | Hit Rate | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Winner prediction | 5.5/13 (42%) | 🟡 Moderate — 7 draws, 1 upset |
| Exact scoreline (top 3) | 5/13 (38%) | 🟡 Improving |
| Who Scores ≥1 hit | 7/11 (64%) | 🟢 Good |
| Who Scores #1 hit | 5/11 (45%) | 🟡 Substitution risk hurts |
| Referee red cards | 12/12 (100%) | 🟢 Perfect |
| Referee card count | ~70% | 🟡 Leniency pattern |
| Possession/flow | ~75% | 🟢 Good |
| Overall average | ~68% | 🟢 Good |
The Draw Epidemic (Finding 1, amplified)
7 of 13 completed matches ended in draws (54%). This is the dominant pattern of WC 2026:
- CAN 1-1 BiH · QAT 1-1 SUI · BRA 1-1 MAR · NED 2-2 JPN · ESP 0-0 CPV · BEL 1-1 EGY · KSA 1-1 URU · IRN 2-2 NZL
Draw probability is now calibrated at 22-30% for all matches (was 12-18%). The combination of low blocks, hot goalkeepers, wasteful favorites, and tournament-style caution produces draws at nearly double the modeled rate.
Calibration Findings Summary (11 total)
- Draws underpriced — 54% draw rate (7/13), now calibrated 22-30%
- Margins wrong — two failure modes — blowout underestimate (GER 7-1, SWE 5-1) + margin overestimate (ESP 0-0)
- Tournament referee leniency — 20-25% discount (upgraded from 15-20%)
- Lineup news invalidates the model — Yamal benched, Núñez hooked at 46'
- AFCON/continental pedigree ≠ minnow — Cape Verde, Senegal, NZL all competitive
- Low-block + hot goalkeeper — 4 validations (Vozinha, Beach, Shobeir, Al-Owais), raised to 15-20%
- CB set-piece goals — Al-Amri (KSA) scored from corner; CBs in Who Scores
- Possession flips — IRN-NZL (NZL 53% > IRN 47%)
- Coin-flip framework — CIV-ECU validated
- Comeback probability — IRN came back twice vs NZL
- Physical & environmental conditions ⭐ NEW — heat, travel, base camp, energy profile. Uruguay at "60% energy" in Miami heat; Iran sluggish after Tijuana. A depleted favorite = ~15-20% weaker.
Plus: Star-as-creator (Salah, Wood 2 assists each), substitution risk (Núñez subbed at 46'!), "attack gutted" needs bigger downgrade (25-30 pts, not 15).
Standings After MD1 (all groups)
| Group | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Mexico (3), South Korea (3) | Czechia (0), South Africa (0) | ||
| B | All 4 teams on 1 pt (every match 1-1) | |||
| C | Scotland (3) | Brazil (1), Morocco (1) | Haiti (0) | |
| D | USA (3, +3), Australia (3, +2) | Paraguay (0), Türkiye (0) | ||
| E | Germany (3, +6), Ivory Coast (3, +1) | Ecuador (0), Curacao (0) | ||
| F | Sweden (3, +4) | Netherlands (1), Japan (1) | Tunisia (0) | |
| G | All 4 teams on 1 pt (BEL-EGY 1-1, IRN-NZL 2-2) | |||
| H | All 4 teams on 1 pt (ESP-CPV 0-0, KSA-URU 1-1) | |||
| I | Jun 16 (FRA-SEN, IRA-NOR) | |||
| J | Jun 16 (ARG-ALG, AUT-JOR) | |||
| K | Jun 17 (POR-COD, UZB-COL) | |||
| L | Jun 17 (ENG-CRO, GHA-PAN) |
Last updated: June 16, 2026. 13 matches completed (Jun 11-15). Jun 16 pre-match wave (4 matches) done. Jun 17 wave pending. 11 Calibration Findings.