Morocco vs. Canada - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, Round of 16 | Saturday, July 4, 2026 | NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

Kickoff: 19:00 CEST (17:00 UTC / 12:00 CDT) | Referee: TBD (assignment pending FIFA publication — verification gap flagged)

TL;DR

MAR 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (13%), MAR 2-1 (9%) lead the 90' distribution; MAR advance 55% / CAN advance 45%, with Bounou's confirmed-form hot-GK (2× WC shootout winner) and a 58% pen conditional edge pushing MAR over the WDM coin-flip line.

• WDM coin-flip baseline: MAR €318M vs CAN €185M (+FIFA rank gap 14 vs 65) gives MAR 39 / Draw 22 / CAN 39 — essentially level; the slight MAR edge rests on FIFA ranking + tier-2 pedigree.
• R32-3 reactive blueprint CAPS MAR advance at ~60% (Bounou + reactive-block capability + counter pace). MAR's actual advance settles at 55% — cap respected, primary driver = GK and pens, not 90' dominance.
• F11 NEUTRALIZED (NRG Stadium roof closed = climate-controlled indoor). No heat/humidity tax to MAR's possession identity or CAN's press.
• F12 = 0% both — R16 is must-win for both, no conservation discount either direction (Ouahbi possession-based; Marsch aggressive).
• Hot-GK split: Bounou CONFIRMED-FORM (×0.5-0.6, 2× WC shootout winner vs ESP 2022 + NED R32); Crépeau reputation-only (×0.25). Net pen edge = MAR 58% / CAN 42%.
• Marsch's CAN bench (Davies + Larin + Promise David) is explosive IF CAN level/leading late (F18 game-state-conditional). MAR's 5 MD3 rotated starters return (Saibari, Díaz, Hakimi all start).
• Watch: Whether Ouahbi picks possession or drops into a 4-5-1 reactive shape against Marsch's press. MAR held 70% possession vs NED (R32, won pens); CAN's 4-4-2 press will try to drag MAR into a counter-attacking posture.

1. Morocco 🇲🇦 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 14 (June 2025 edition)
• Manager: Mohamed Ouahbi (NOT Walid Regragui — Regragui left March 2026 after the AFCON win; replaced by Ouahbi who led Morocco U-20 to a WC title in Chile. First senior job.)
• WC History: 2022 semifinalists (best-ever finish for an African nation); current tournament = R32 (1-1 vs NED, MAR win 3-2 pens); Group C winners ahead of Brazil
• Form: W2 D1 L0 in group stage (beat SCO 1-0, drew BRA 1-1, beat HAI 4-2); R32 drew NED 1-1 + pens win
• Tier: 2 (AFCON champions Jan 2026; 2022 WC SF; genuine dark horse)
• Base camp: Dallas area (consistent throughout tournament)

Tactical Identity (under Ouahbi)

• Formation: 4-2-3-1 (confirmed XI for this R16 per task brief), but flexible — drops to 4-5-1 reactive when chasing or vs pressing sides
• Identity shift from Regragui: possession-based 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 (NOT the defensive 4-2-3-1 / 5-4-1 of 2022). Three months in role = crystallised structure
• Strengths: elite full-backs (Hakimi RB, Mazraoui CB/LB), mobile front three (Saibari #9, Díaz #10/RW, El Khannouss LW), CM depth (El Aynaoui, Amrabat, Ounahi, Bouaddi)
• R32 evolution vs NED: 70% possession, 1.47 xG, 1-1 at 90', won 3-2 pens (Bounou 1 save) — this is the REACTIVE-MOMENTUM template: dominate possession, force opponents to chase

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

• ✅ Possession depth + counter-pace combo (Ouahbi's flexibility)
• ✅ Bounou single-handedly produces pen edge (R32 + 2022 R16)
• ✅ AFCON + 2022 SF pedigree = not minnows; resilient in KO games
• ⚠️ Squad construction flag (F17 fourth flag): Saibari is best-finisher but technically a #10/winger; no classic 20+ goal/season #9 in true-targetman mode. Modest concern, not yet manifested.
• ⚠️ 5 MD3 starters were rotated (rest vs HAI 4-2 win); chemistry preserved but stamina pressure on bench-laden CAN will test MAR's depth.

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1, confirmed per task brief)

Bounou — Hakimi, Mazraoui, Diop, Riad — El Aynaoui, Bouaddi — El Khannouss, Díaz, Saibari — (front three rotated; Ounahi/Maarir option behind)
Bench: El Kajoui, Tagnaouti, Halhal, Salah-Eddine, Amrabat, El Kaabi, Rahimi, Yassine, Talbi, Sbai

2. Canada 🇨🇦 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 65
• Manager: Jesse Marsch (USA, 52) — took over May 2024. Temperament: AGGRESSIVE high-energy pressing-obsessed.
• WC History: co-host (along with USA + MEX). Previous WC appearances: 1986 (group), 2022 (group). Quarterfinal would be country-best.
• Form: Group stage W1 D1 L1 (drew BIH 1-1, beat QAT 6-0, lost SUI 2-1); R32 beat RSA 1-0 (Eustáquio 90+2')
• Tier: 2 (dark-horse R16 candidate on paper)
• Base camp: Vancouver (BC Place) → traveled to SoFi LA for R32 → now travels to Houston for R16

Tactical Identity

• Formation: 4-4-2 (confirmed XI per task brief); two flat banks of four, energetic full-backs, vertical pressing
• Identity: Marsch's 4-4-2 requires intense work-rate; vertical passing through Eustáquio/Koné to feed David. Has historically struggled vs low blocks (MD1 vs BIH in their tournament-tested transition).
• Transition: aggressive but vulnerable to quick counters; full-back overlap leaves channels

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

• ✅ Jonathan David scoring form (5+ goals)
• ✅ Bench depth is tournament-best (Davies + Larin + Promise David) — explosive IF level/leading late (F18)
• ✅ High-pressing identity disrupts possession sides if executed
• ⚠️ Marsch historically struggles vs low blocks (MD1 BIH draw at 1-1)
• ⚠️ Crépeau reputation-only GK (×0.25) — no confirmed hot-GK pedigree
• ⚠️ Travel: Vancouver → LA → Houston (3 bases in 10 days; minor fatigue risk)
• ⚠️ Defensive structure under Marsch's press is high-octane; can be exposed in transition by Hakimi/Díaz

Predicted XI (4-4-2, confirmed per task brief)

Crépeau — Johnston, Bombito, Cornelius, Laryea — Buchanan, Eustáquio, Saliba, Millar — David, Oluwaseyi
Bench: St. Clair, Goodman, De Fougerolles, Waterman, Davies, Jones, Choinière, Sigur, Osorio, Ahmed, Nelson, Larin, Promise David, Shaffelburg

3. Head-to-Head Record

The squads have never met in a senior FIFA tournament. Limited history = limited bias. This is a discoverable matchup, weighted purely on current form + squad quality + tactical setup.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis — F11 NEUTRALIZED

Per the methodology: "Roof closed + climate-controlled indoor = AC indoor. Houston's heat/humidity neutralized. Finding 11 heat penalty: NEUTRALIZED." This is a pure indoor match — no weather variable to apply. CAN's high-press will NOT degrade at 60' from cumulative heat stress. MAR's possession will NOT tire from atmospheric humidity. All weather-driven deltas = 0.

5. Referee Analysis

⚠️ ASSIGNMENT NOT CONFIRMED — sources/matches/mar-vs-can/referee/ directory is empty in the source archive. Scout brief explicitly states "TBD — verify assignment." This is a process gap flagged for resolution.

Working Assumption (verify before kickoff)

A FIFA-appointed referee for R16 MAR-CAN would typically be:

• A neutral (non-MAR, non-CAN) official from CAF, CONCACAF, UEFA, or CONMEBOL confederations
• WC 2026 veteran (most have 2+ tournament matches under their belt by R16)

Generic R16 assumptions (pending real assignment):

• Career yellow rate typically 3.5–5.0 Y/game
• Apply 20–25% tournament leniency discount → expect ~2.8–4.0 Y/game
• Red cards: 0 in most group-stage settings, low R16 probability unless a defender is beaten
• Penalty rate: 0.30–0.45 pens/game career, ~25–35% tournament conditional for ≥1 pen

Prediction (placeholder — replace with real ref)

Caveat: This is a working assumption only. The real referee profile MUST be sourced before publishing. If a CONCACAF/CAF strict-ref is assigned (Falcon-Perez, Claus, or Hernández Hernández profiles), card rate could climb. Verify via FIFA match-centre.

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 Bounou vs. Jonathan David (the model-breaker vs. the model-maker)

The single most important 1v1. David has 5+ goals, is clinical (MOM vs SUI), and is CAN's only elite-finisher mechanism. Bounou is a 2× WC shootout winner and confirmed-form hot-GK. If Bounou wins his 1–2 high-quality saves, CAN are likely pinned; if David slips past Bounou's reach once, the David + Marsch edge flips a tight match.

6.2 Hakimi overlap vs. CAN's high-press channels

Marsch's 4-4-2 wants to press high, but Hakimi's overlap from RB leaves channels behind. MAR's best chance at exploiting CAN's press comes from Hakimi + Saibari/Díaz combination play. If CAN's Saliba/Eustáquio pivot can sit on Hakimi's overlap, this advantage disappears — and Marsch's high-press collective behavior becomes ascendant.

6.3 Marsch press vs. Ouahbi possession build-up

This is the structural matchup. CAN presses; MAR builds from the back. Ouahbi's R32 template was 70% possession vs NED — if CAN's press leaks (likely when fatigued, ~60'+), MAR's possession grows dangerously. CAN's MOM-turn-Saliba pivot can disrupt — but only if disciplined for 90 minutes (Marsch's historical vulnerability vs deep blocks).

6.4 CAN bench (Davies + Larin + Promise David) vs. MAR defensive endurance

CAN has the tournament's deepest bench at striker + LB. If CAN is level or leading at 60', the bench injection has F18 game-state upside. MAR's bench (El Kaabi, Rahimi, Yassine) is target-man and pace — different profile. The bench likely favors CAN late, not MAR — counterweight to MAR's possession and Bounou edge.

6.5 Saibari vs. CAN's CB pair (Bombito + Cornelius)

Saibari has 3 goals in his last 3 + winning pen vs NED. He's in career-best form. CAN's CB pair (Bombito, Cornelius) is competent but not elite — vs a Saibari in this zone, expect 2–3 dangerous moments from Saibari over 90+ET. The MOM question is whether Bouaddi and El Aynaoui can feed Saibari consistently despite CAN's pressing pivot.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — walked independently)

⚡ MANDATORY. This is the analytical engine. I walk doc-5's 6-step decision graph myself, derive every number, show reasoning with explicit numbers ("F12 = 0%" / "F11 neutralized" / "R32-3 +4pt"). My independent resolution IS the value.

Step 0 — WDM Anchor (full breakdown shown in §6.6 below)

Pre-summary: MAR fav_share = 0.621 (in 0.60-0.65 band). WDM baseline: MAR 39% / Draw 22% / CAN 39%.

Step 1 — Group Context (Findings 23+24)

• R16 stakes: Both must-win (loser eliminated, winner advances to QF vs FRA-ESP winner).
• GD-chase? N/A — single-elim K/O; GD doesn't apply to current match outcome.
• Bracket incentive: Winner goes to QF. No 1st vs 2nd bracket motivation mid-tournament (WCs don't have a fixed-bracket by group stage this way).
• Yellow-card QF-suspension risk: CAN's Larin (1 yellow vs RSA) + Millar (1 yellow) risk QF ban if booked again. Mild tackle-modesty effect.
• Output: F12 = 0% both. Conservation meaningless in must-win R16.

Step 2 — Conservation (Finding 12)

• Ouahbi (MAR): Possession-based, not the old Regragui "win 1-0". Will commit attacking players in must-win. 0% conservation.
• Marsch (CAN): AGGRESSIVE 4-4-2 — pressing-obsessed. Doesn't conserve. 0% conservation.
• Empirical weight (conservation ×1.5): N/A — base = 0.
• Output: F12 = 0% both.

Step 3 — Weather × Style (Finding 11)

• Roof CLOSED + climate-controlled indoor. Heat penalty NEUTRALIZED.
• CAN's press won't degrade at 60' from heat stress.
• MAR's possession won't tire from atmospheric humidity.
• Output: F11 = 0% (neutralized).

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack

• Heat + low block + hot GK = DRAW formula. Heat component = NEUTRALIZED (Step 3).
• Low block still possible (Ouahbi can drop into 4-5-1 reactive vs CAN's pressing). Hot GK is MAR's (Bounou confirmed-form).
• The compound formula is broken by neutralized heat. Even with low block + Bounou, the heat-trigger is missing.
• Output: No draw-amplification from F11. Match stays in normal probability bands.

Step 5 — Temperament

• Marsch (CAN): AGGRESSIVE. Will press high for 90'. Risk: leaving space behind for MAR counters.
• Ouahbi (MAR): Possession-based. Defaults to ball-dominant posture. Will counter when forced but doesn't invite pressure.
• Temperament matchup: Possession vs Press. Both teams have a mechanism. This is NOT a Costa Rica–Panama sterile-domination matchup.
• Marsch's historical vulnerability: presses well vs open; collapses vs low blocks.
• Ouahbi's flexibility: can shift to reactive if needed (he did vs NED's late equaliser).
• Output: No sterile-domination flag (F17). Both teams have a finishing mechanism.

Step 6 — Synthesis (show the math)

Starting: MAR 39 / Draw 22 / CAN 39 (WDM anchor)

Adjustments:

Cap checks:

• R32-1 deviation cap: MAR max +5pt from WDM = 44. Current MAR = 42. ✓ not binding.
• R32-3 reactive blueprint cap: MAR advance ≤ 60%. Current advance (post-ET+pens) = 55%. ✓ not binding.
• F22 BLOWOUT exclusion: Underdog = pressing-side 4-4-2, NOT low block + veteran GK. Blowout CAN occur. But fav_share 0.621 < 0.65 → cap 4+ margins at 5-8%.

Adjusted WDM: MAR 90' win = 42% / Draw = 24% / CAN 90' win = 34%

Step 6 → ET conditional (given D at 90' = 24%)

• ET dynamics: 30 min, both more cautious. Bounou still hot. CAN's bench (Davies/Larin) FRESH for ET.
• Slight edge to MAR via pen-fear (CAN knows Bounou).
• MAR win ET = 38% / Draw → pens = 26% / CAN win ET = 36%

Step 6 → Pen conditional (given pens reached)

• Bounou 2× WC shootout winner (×0.5-0.6 confirmed-form): dominant.
• Crépeau reputation-only (×0.25): no WC shootout pedigree.
• MAR win pens = 58% / CAN win pens = 42%

Step 6 → Advance probability

• MAR advance = 42 + 24(0.38) + 24(0.26)(0.58) = 42 + 9.12 + 3.62 = 54.74% → 55%
• CAN advance = 100 - 55 = 45%

Both within R32-3 cap (MAR ≤ 60%). ✓

6.6. WDM Baseline Anchor

(Computed in §6.5 Step 0. Reproduced for archival.)

WDM factors:
  squad:     MAR €318M   / CAN €185M   → MAR share 0.632
  fifa:      MAR rank 14 / CAN rank 65 → MAR share 0.711
  form:      MAR 2.67 PPG / CAN 1.17 PPG → MAR share 0.695 (opponent-tier-weighted)
  qualifying: MAR 2.3 PPG / CAN 2.2 PPG → MAR share 0.511
  gdiff:     MAR +3 / CAN +6 → MAR share 0.448 (after +10 shift)

Composite: MAR score = 3.0×0.632 + 1.0×0.711 + 1.0×0.695 + 1.0×0.511 + 0.5×0.448
                            = 1.896 + 0.711 + 0.695 + 0.511 + 0.224 = 4.037
           CAN score = 6.5 − 4.037 = 2.463

fav_share = 4.037/6.5 = 0.621
MAR baseline = 28 + (0.621 − 0.50)×90 = 28 + 10.89 = 38.89% → 39%
Draw baseline = 22% (knockout, mid of 20-25 band for fav_share 0.60-0.65 per R32-4)
CAN = 100 − 39 − 22 = 39%

WDM ANCHOR: MAR 39% / draw 22% / CAN 39%

Deviation justified: +3% to MAR for confirmed-form hot-GK (Bounou ×0.5-0.6); +2% to draw for game-state-conditional bench impact (F18). Total deviation = +5% max within R32-1 cap.

Form tier assignment (opponent-tier-weighted) for MAR:

• Drew BRA (Tier 1, weight 2): 1 × 2 = 2 weighted pts
• Beat SCO (Tier 3, weight 1): 3 × 1 = 3 weighted pts
• Beat HAI (Tier 3, weight 1): 3 × 1 = 3 weighted pts
• Total: 8 weighted pts / 3 games = 2.67 weighted PPG ✓

Form tier assignment for CAN:

• Drew BIH (Tier 3, weight 0.5 for draw): 1 × 0.5 = 0.5 weighted pts
• Beat QAT (Tier 3, weight 1 for win): 3 × 1 = 3 weighted pts
• Lost SUI (Tier 2 — losses not weighted): 0 weighted pts
• Total: 3.5 weighted pts / 3 games = 1.17 weighted PPG ✓

7K. Knockout Prediction (R16 format)

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Sum: 100% ±2. Draw is a real 1-in-4 outcome, NOT collapsed into "ET/PK" blob.

Extra Time (conditional probabilities — sum to 100 GIVEN ET reached)

Sum: 100% ✓

ET dynamics differ from 90' — tired legs, tactical caution, 30 min not 90, sub limits exhausted. Bounou's pen advantage is the heaviest variable here.

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens reached)

Sum: 100% ✓

Advance Probability (unconditional — show the math)

Both within R32-3 cap (MAR ≤ 60%). ✓

Scoreline Distribution (90' only — Team A = MAR, Team B = CAN)

Top 12 sum: ~76%; + ~24% other = ~100% ✓

Modal Match Path

Single most likely complete path: 1-1 at 90' → 2-1 MAR in ET (5.3%)

Reasoning: 1-1 (14%) × MAR wins ET (38%) = 5.32% complete probability.

Second most likely: 1-0 MAR in 90' (12%) — regulation win, no ET.

Third: 1-1 → 1-1 ET → MAR wins pens (2.1%)

Combined "MAR advance via 1-1 at 90'": 14% × (0.38 + 0.26×0.58) = 14% × 0.53 = 7.42% — this is the modal full path to MAR advancing.

8. Who Scores

Morocco 🇲🇦

(Sub risk: Saibari could be subbed if wasteful (F12 substitution risk ~30% at 60'+) — but he's been clinical not wasteful in this tournament. Probability ≈ 90% he plays 90'.)

Canada 🇨🇦

(Sub risk: David could be subbed if CAN chasing late (F12 sub risk ~25% at 75'+) but he's Captain + scorer, Marsch unlikely to pull him. Probability ≈ 88% David plays 90+ET minutes.)

9. Match Flow Projection

Expected xG (FT+ET): MAR 1.4 / CAN 1.1 — moderate scoring with Bounou neutralizing 2-3 clear-cut CAN chances.

10. Methodology Notes

Findings Applied

• Finding 4 (hot GK — confirmed-form ×0.5-0.6 split): Bounou (MAR) → +3% to MAR. Crépeau (CAN) reputation-only ×0.25 → 0% to CAN.
• Finding 7 (CB set-piece): Diop/Mazraoui (MAR) + Bombito/Cornelius (CAN) as secondary scorers in canonical profiles.
• Finding 11 (weather): NEUTRALIZED — roof closed.
• Finding 12 (conservation): 0% — R16 must-win both.
• Finding 13 (sterile domination screen ×2.0): passed — Saibari exists as finisher for MAR; David/Oluwaseyi for CAN.
• Finding 18 (bench impact ×1.5 — game-state-conditional): CAN bench (Davies/Larin) explosive IF CAN level/leading late.
• Finding 21 (late-goal EXPLOSION): MAR bench + CAN bench both options — lesser weight at fav_share 0.621 < 0.65.
• Finding 22 (BLOWOUT Mode A): limited at fav_share 0.621 < 0.65 → cap 4+ margins at 5-8%.
• Finding 23+24 (group context): R16 must-win, no GD-chase, no fixed bracket.
• R32-1 deviation cap: fav_share 0.621 < 0.65 → MAR max +5pt from WDM.
• R32-2 opponent-tier form: already in WDM (beats Tier 3 ×1, draws Tier 3 ×0.5, draws Tier 1 ×2).
• R32-3 CONMEBOL reactive blueprint: analogously applies to MAR (CAF) — caps MAR advance ~60%.
• R32-4 draw band: fav_share 0.621 → draw = 20-25% mid-band → 22% baseline.

Findings NOT Applied (out of scope)

• Finding 6 (CONMEBOL pedigree discount for striker): not invoked; Bounou's CONFIRMED-FORM is the more relevant signal.
• Finding 16 (age-decline scorer discount): not invoked — no 38+ scorers for either team in this matchup.
• Finding 19 (late-arriving CM in low-event coin-flip): N/A — this is NOT a low-event coin-flip (fav_share 0.621 is moderate).
• Finding 22 Blowout exclusion (low block + veteran GK): DOES NOT apply — CAN is pressing-side, not low-block.

Calibration Sources

• Squad values: experiments/squad-values.json (€318M MAR, €185M CAN as of Jun 29 2026)
• FIFA rank: experiments/wdm-data.json (MAR 14, CAN 65)
• Qualifying PPG: experiments/wdm-data.json (MAR 2.3, CAN 2.2)
• Tournament form: 8/3 = 2.67 MAR; 3.5/3 = 1.17 CAN (opponent-tier-weighted)
• GDiff: MAR +3, CAN +6 (from experiments/team-goals.json)
• NED-MAR R32 reference: sources/matches/ned-vs-mar/ned-vs-mar-2026-post-event-review.md (MAR 70% poss vs NED, 1.47 xG, 1-1 pens win — Bounou save)
• Methodology: about-methodology.md, backlog/docs/doc-1, backlog/docs/doc-5, predictions-summary.md, backlog/docs/doc-4, R32 retrospective report

Gaps / Flags:

• ⚠️ Referee assignment NOT confirmed — sources/matches/mar-vs-can/referee/ directory is empty; scout brief marks TBD. Re-verify via FIFA match-centre before publishing.
• ⚠️ lineups.md file MISSING from sources/matches/mar-vs-can/ — task message provided confirmed XIs; canonical team profiles corroborate the call.
• ⚠️ team-news-mar/, team-news-can/, weather/ directories empty — minor info gaps; injury/fitness read from canonical profiles + scout brief.
• ⚠️ Scout brief discrepancy: Names "Regragui" as manager — canonical profile says Ouahbi (post-March 2026 transition). Used canonical as source of truth.
• First-time competitive meeting — limited direct H2H bias risk; model is on squad/tactical base.

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "mar-vs-can"
date = "2026-07-04"
kickoff_cest = "19:00"
group = "R16"
venue = "houston-nrg"
referee = "TBD"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
# 90' outcomes (sum to 100)
favorite = "Morocco"
win = 42
draw = 24
loss = 34

[knockout]
# ET conditional on D at 90' (sum to 100)
win_et = 38
draw_et = 26
loss_et = 36
# Pens conditional on pens reached (sum to 100)
pen_win = 58
# Advance unconditional
advance_a = 55
advance_b = 45

[scorelines]
# Top 90' scorelines — format: "MAR-CAN"
"1-1" = 14
"1-0" = 12
"0-1" = 10
"2-1" = 9
"1-2" = 7
"0-0" = 6
"2-0" = 4
"2-2" = 4
"3-1" = 3
"0-2" = 3
"3-0" = 2
"0-3" = 2
"other" = 24

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Saibari", probability = 25 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Jonathan David", probability = 22 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0
finding_13_fires = false
finding_16_age_decline = ""
penalty_band = "25-35%"
projected_xg = 1.4

[predicted_stats]
# Alphabetical first in code = Canada → possession for CAN
favorite_possession = 42
yellow_cards = "3-4"
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "25-35%"

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: scout brief, team canonical profiles, venue profile, WDM data, R32 retrospective, NED-MAR post-event review. Source archive: sources/matches/mar-vs-can/