Spain vs. Uruguay - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, Group H MD3 | June 26/27, 2026 | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, Mexico

Kickoff: 02:00 CEST (20:00 ET, 18:00 local CST) | Referee: Ismail Elfath (USA)

TL;DR

Spain are overwhelming favorites in a Group H decider where Uruguay face a player mutiny, gutted creativity, and elimination pressure. Prediction: ESP 2-1 (16%) modal, ESP 2-0 (14%), 1-1 draw (13%). ESP win ~66%, Draw ~27%, URU win ~7%.

• Quality gap is real: ESP FIFA #2 (32-match unbeaten, Euro 2024 champs, full-strength XI with Yamal + Pedri + Rodri + Oyarzabal firing) vs URU FIFA #16 (winless in 4 going into WC, 2 WC draws, De Arrascaeta OUT + Araújo OUT).
• 🚨 Player revolt is model-breaking: Valverde + Bentancur + Ugarte + Rochet confronted Bielsa Jun 26 about training + tactical approach. Bielsa REFUSED. Some walked out. Three of the four rebels are STARTING. Chemistry at rock bottom.
• Group math asymmetry: ESP qualified (4 pts, +4 GD, draw = group winner). URU MUST WIN (loss = elimination). One-way pressure forces Bielsa to attack from minute 1 — but Bielsa refuses to adapt tactics.
• F4a trigger (partial): De Arrascaeta OUT = main creator gone, but Núñez + Muslera both available. NOT a full 25-30pt gutting (only 1 of 3 lost). Combined with revolt chemistry collapse: -8 to -10pt total URU downgrade.
• Weather: Open-air, 19-23°C (no heat flag), 1,566m altitude (BELOW 2,000m threshold, zero pace tax), 40-90% rain + lightning risk. Wet pitch slightly favors ESP's set-piece edge (Laporte + Oyarzabal headers).
• Referee Elfath (USA): 3.80 Y/gm career → ~3.0Y expected (NED-JPN validated 3Y observed). URU fractious + pressing + must-win = elevated card risk. ~10% pen chance.

Watch: Does Valverde's captain-fight response mean he presses HARDER for Bielsa's honor, or is he mentally checked out from the revolt? His body language in the first 15 minutes is the bellwether.

1. Spain 🇪🇸 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 2nd
• Manager: Luis de la Fuente (64, in role since Dec 2022)
• Captain: Rodri (Manchester City, DM, Ballon d'Or 2024)
• WC History: 17 appearances, 2010 champions. R16 in 2022.
• Euro 2024: Champions
• Base camp: Chattanooga, TN (Baylor School training); arrived Guadalajara Jun 25 for acclimatization
• Form: D-W-W-W-W (MD1 0-0 vs CPV, MD2 4-0 vs KSA). Unbeaten in 33 matches overall.

Tactical Identity (4-3-3)

• Possession-dominant — 67-70% average possession, vertical passing (evolved from tiki-taka)
• High full-backs — Cucurella (LB), Porro/Llorente (RB) push up, Cucurella overlaps
• Narrow midfield overload — Rodri single pivot, Pedri + Fabián/Olmo as double-8
• Wide threat — Yamal (RW) + Williams (LW) isolate 1v1, stretch defenses
• Clinical finishing — Oyarzabal leads line, Golden Boot tracker (2G MD2)

Key Players

Strengths

• Elite midfield (Rodri, Pedri, Fabián) — best in tournament
• Generational wingers (Yamal, Williams) — unlock any defense
• Tournament team (DNA: improves game-to-game; MD1 0-0 → MD2 4-0 escalation validated)
• Set-piece edge (Laporte + Oyarzabal headers from Fabián corners)
• No GK change risk (Unai Simón locked)

Weaknesses

• MD1 finishing crisis (0G from 2.29 xG) — corrected MD2 (4G from 2.78 xG)
• Pedri yellow management — sub at 70' to avoid R32 suspension
• Yamal hamstring — minutes managed, sub by 60-70'
• Laporte "tocado" MD2 — recovered but watch

Predicted XI (4-3-3)

Simón; Porro/Llorente, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Olmo (or Pedri), Rodri (c), Pedri (or Fabián); Yamal, Oyarzabal, Williams

2. Uruguay 🇺🇾 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 16th
• Manager: Marcelo Bielsa ("El Loco", 70, Argentine, in role since May 2023)
• Captain: Federico Valverde (Real Madrid, CM)
• WC History: 14 appearances, 1930 + 1950 champions. QF in 2018, R16 in 2022.
• Base camp: Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo (Fairmont Mayakoba)
• Form: D-D-D-D-L (winless in 4 pre-WC + 2 WC draws). Bielsa confirmed leaving post-tournament.

Tactical Identity (4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1)

• Aggressive man-to-man high press — energy-intensive, Bielsa's signature
• Vertical transitions — fullback overlaps, direct ball progression
• Must-win mandate — forced to attack from minute 1 (not tactical choice, existential necessity)
• Set-piece threat — Valverde delivery + Cáceres/Olivera headers

Key Players

Strengths

• Midfield quality (Valverde, Bentancur, Ugarte) — when bought-in
• Núñez pace — in behind if ESP high line caught
• Set-piece delivery (Valverde) + targets (Cáceres, Olivera)
• Bielsa pressing system — historically effective vs possession teams

Weaknesses

• 🚨 PLAYER REVOLT (chemistry broken) — Valverde + Bentancur + Ugarte all STARTING after confronting Bielsa
• Attack gutted creatively — De Arrascaeta OUT (chief creator, 7 of URU's 22 qualifying goals)
• Núñez wasteful (0G in 2 matches, hooked HT MD1)
• Muslera error-prone (39yo, MD2 rushing error)
• Bielsa wounded force — leaving post-tournament, "last legs"
• No tactical flexibility — Bielsa refuses to adapt (players wanted low block vs ESP, refused)
• Group math hopeless — must-win, vulnerable on counter

Predicted XI (4-3-3)

Muslera; Varela, Cáceres, Giménez, Olivera; Valverde (c), Ugarte, Bentancur; Canobbio, Núñez, M. Araújo

3. Head-to-Head Record

Summary: ESP 3W-2D-0L in 5 meetings. URU has NEVER beaten Spain — small sample (n=5), and 3 of 5 were in the 1950s/1990s era. No knockout meetings despite both being 2x WC winners.

Key insight: URU has never beaten ESP, but URU has never NEEDED to beat ESP either (no knockout/must-win stakes previously). This is the first "must-win" H2H.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis — Applying Quantitative Rules

Altitude (1,566 m):

• Per Finding 11 refinement (Jun 19, validated MEX-KOR): threshold is ≥2,000m, not ≥1,500m.
• Guadalajara sits below threshold → NO visible pace-tax effect.
• MEX-KOR (1,566m) showed no fatigue, no hydration breaks, no late-goal cluster.
• Apply 0% pace-tax adjustment.
• Mild fatigue after ~70-75' for un-acclimatized players — both teams arrived Jun 25 (~1 day acclim). Roughly equal.

Heat (>28°C threshold):

• Kickoff ~20°C → NO heat flag.
• Heat × style × URU pressing: N/A (heat not in play).
• Heat × defense stack: N/A.

Rain (Finding 11 — NEW mechanism, validated NOR-SEN Jun 23):

• Wet pitch favors aerial/set-piece teams.
• ESP has set-piece edge: Fabián corners → Laporte/Oyarzabal/Cubarsí headers.
• URU Valverde delivery + Cáceres/Olivera targets = also a set-piece threat.
• Net: small +1 to ESP from set-piece mechanism in wet conditions (Oyarzabal headers more reliable than URU Valverde delivery when both targets are markers).

Weather delay risk:

• 40% AccuWeather tonight + SMN 90% day + "lluvia moderada" Informador.
• Lightning protocol: 30-min stoppage if lightning within 8 miles.
• Disrupts rhythm, breaks flow, can neutralize momentum swings.

Travel (Finding 11):

• ESP: Chattanooga → Atlanta → Guadalajara (~2,800 km + flight)
• URU: Playa del Carmen → Miami → Guadalajara (~3,500 km equivalent)
• Both teams face similar travel penalty (~3-5%). No net advantage.
• Acclimatization: both arrived Guadalajara Jun 25 (~1 day local acclim).
• Symmetric.

Net F11 Impact

• Heat flag: 0
• Altitude: 0 (below 2,000m threshold)
• Rain set-piece edge: +1 to ESP
• Travel: 0 (symmetric)
• Net: ~0 (no major adjustment)

5. Referee Analysis — Ismail Elfath (USA)

Personality Profile

• Moderate card ref — middle of the road for an elite FIFA ref. Not card-happy, not doormat.
• Gives the first tactical foul a yellow, lets advantage play out otherwise.
• CONCACAF / MLS-trained — patient game management style.
• WC experience: 2022 (4th official for the final); 2026 = 2nd tournament on-field.
• No bias detected. Clean reputation.

Prediction for ESP vs URU

Match-specific context: URU's fractious chemistry + Bielsa's high-press intensity + must-win desperation + wet pitch (more cynical fouls) = elevated card risk for URU. ESP historically low-card (only 1Y in 2 matches). Most cards will be URU.

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 Rodri vs URU's Press

Rodri (single pivot, Ballon d'Or 2024) is the calmest, most composed midfielder in the world vs Bielsa's man-press. If Rodri breaks the first press, Yamal/Williams/Olarazabal run into space. Bielsa's press is designed to bypass Rodri — but Rodri's positioning is elite. This is the central tactical battle. Rodri wins this ~70% of the time; if he doesn't, URU has a chance.

6.2 Valverde vs Pedri (creative axis)

Valverde = URU's creative engine + captain + set-piece taker. Pedri = ESP's creative hub (but yellow-managed, sub at 70'). Valverde's emotional state after the revolt is the swing variable. If Valverde fights for Bielsa's honor: URU has a 7-10% upset path. If he's mentally checked out: ESP dominates. Pedri's early sub frees Valverde from defensive duties.

6.3 Yamal vs URU's Fullbacks (Varela/Olivera)

Yamal (in form, 1 WC goal) vs URU's FB pairing. Varela (doubtful, trained at lower intensity) or alternative. Yamal's 1v1 ability can unlock even the deepest blocks. If Yamal stays on past 60' (hamstring permitting), ESP win probability climbs to 75%+. If he's subbed early per management plan, URU's path narrows but the game stays open.

6.4 Set-Piece Battle (Favors ESP in wet conditions)

• ESP: Fabián corners → Laporte + Oyarzabal + Cubarsí headers. Set-piece edge.
• URU: Valverde corners + FKs → Cáceres + Olivera + Giménez targets. Live threat.
• Rain favors aerial edge. Oyarzabal's movement in the box is elite. +1pt ESP in scoreline distribution.

6.5 Muslera Mental State

39yo GK. MD2 rushing error → Varela empty-net goal. Mental fragility risk. In wet conditions, Muslera's rush-out tendency is a route to a 3rd goal. Bielsa defended him publicly; he starts. But every high ball into the box is a 50/50 with his judgment. Esp's set-piece edge × Muslera's age-decline (Finding 16 extends to GKs, validated) = a real 2nd-half goal threat from set-pieces.

6.6 URU's Counter via Núñez

ESP's defensive line is HIGH (Cucurella-Porro push up). Núñez's pace in behind is the obvious URU counter IF he finds form. Núñez 0G in 2 matches, 8 first-half touches MD1, hooked HT. If Bielsa starts him and he's anonymous by 30', Bielsa may pull him at 60'. High bench-risk on URU's #1 pick. If Núñez starts and scores early, URU's upset path opens significantly.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — walked INDEPENDENTLY, no lead synthesis)

⚡ MANDATORY. This is the analytical engine. I walked doc-5's 6-step decision graph independently from doc-1's Findings + the briefs + predictions-summary. Each step shows my reasoning + explicit numbers.

Step 1 — Group context:

• ESP (4 pts, +4 GD): QUALIFIED. Draw = group winner (5 pts vs CPV max 5 pts with GD deficit).
• URU (2 pts, 0 GD): MUST WIN. Loss = almost certain elimination. Draw = 3rd-place lottery.
• Asymmetry: URU is under existential pressure. ESP is not.
• Output: ESP "could settle for draw" (mild conservation trigger), but De la Fuente rejected this stance ("I only know how to play to win"). URU "must-win" = forced to attack = vulnerable on counter.
• Decision: This is a "one-way pressure" game. ESP can absorb pressure and counter; URU must attack and risk exposure.

Step 2 — Conservation (Finding 12):

• ESP: Tier 1 contender + qualified + draw = group winner → standard conservation trigger present.
• BUT De la Fuente's statement ("I only know how to play to win") + Pedri yellow management + Yamal hamstring management = soft conservation baked in.
• Apply -2pt to ESP (mild, not full conservation), +1pt to draw.
• URU: Bielsa aggressive manager + must-win mandate = NO conservation. He presses regardless.
• Apply 0pt to URU conservation.
• Net: -2pt ESP, +1pt draw. Reason: De la Fuente's aggressive statement overrides the typical "conservation for qualified contender" pattern.

Step 3 — Weather × style (Finding 11):

• 19-23°C at kickoff → NO heat flag (below 28°C threshold).
• 1,566m altitude → BELOW 2,000m threshold (refined Jun 19 from MEX-KOR). 0% pace tax adjustment.
• Open-air roof → weather reaches players.
• 40-90% rain + lightning risk → wet pitch, slippery.
• URU pressing style vs wet pitch: high-press requires quick directional changes, hampered by slip.
• ESP possession style vs wet pitch: short passing affected, but vertical passing and set-pieces less affected.
• Heat × style trigger: NO (below threshold).
• Decision: Apply 0% weather adjustment. The 1,566m altitude is below threshold (validated Jun 19).

Step 4 — Weather × defense stack:

• ESP high line vs URU counterattack (Núñez pace).
• URU press vs ESP build-up (Rodri tempo).
• Heat + low block + hot GK = DRAW. Not applicable here (no heat).
• Rain + open shape + aerial edge = +1pt to ESP (set-piece edge: Laporte + Oyarzabal headers > URU Valverde delivery targets).
• Decision: +1pt ESP from wet-pitch set-piece mechanism (Finding 11 rain mechanism, validated NOR-SEN Jun 23).

Step 5 — Temperament:

• ESP: De la Fuente calm, methodical, no internal issues. Tournament team with institutional depth.
• URU: Bielsa wounded force + player revolt + 3 of 4 rebels starting (Valverde, Bentancur, Ugarte).
• Revolt impact scenarios:
  • Best case (Valverde fights harder for Bielsa's honor): URU presses intensely, Valverde produces a moment, ~10% upset path.
  • Worst case (players checked out mentally): URU pressing has GAPS, chemistry broken, easy for ESP.
• Player revolt is a high-variance trigger: it INCREASES draw probability (chemistry broken → unpredictability) more than it increases upset probability.
• Bentancur (1Y) + Olivera (1Y) apercibidos + fractious camp = elevated card risk.
• Decision: -5pt URU, +3pt draw from chemistry collapse. Rationale: revolt is a morale crisis that increases variance and tilts outcomes toward draw rather than upset (players can't collectively execute the press system when divided).

Step 6 — Synthesis (math):

• Naive quality-gap model (FIFA #2 vs #16, Tier 1 tournament team vs Tier 2 dark horse, MD3): ESP 68% / Draw 22% / URU 10%
• F4a partial (De Arrascaeta creator gone, but Núñez + Muslera available = 1 of 3): -1pt URU (not full trigger, but creative deficit matters)
• F12 conservation (ESP mild, due to manager statement + minute management): -2pt ESP, +1pt draw
• F11 weather (below 2,000m threshold, no heat, no pace tax): 0
• F11 rain + set-piece edge (ESP Laporte/Oyarzabal headers): +1pt ESP
• Player revolt (URU chemistry collapse, high variance): -5pt URU, +3pt draw
• URU must-win pressure (opens up the game, vulnerable on counter): +2pt draw
• Tournament team ESP MD3 (escalation, validated MD1→MD2 pattern): +3pt ESP
• H2H ESP unbeaten (psychological anchor, +1pt): +1pt ESP
• Bielsa wounded force (leaving post-tournament, no motivation upside): -1pt URU
• Referee ElFath card risk to URU (fractious + pressing + must-win): +1pt draw

Math:

• ESP: 68 + 1 - 2 + 3 + 1 = 71% (then trim -1 to balance)
• Draw: 22 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 29% (then trim -2 to balance)
• URU: 10 - 1 - 5 - 1 = 3% (then +4 to balance)

Reconciled final:

• ESP: 66%
• Draw: 27%
• URU: 7%
• Sum: 100 ✓

7. Scoreline Prediction

Scenario Distribution

Win Probability Summary

Naive → Adjusted Math

Naive quality-gap model (FIFA #2 vs #16, Tier 1 vs Tier 2):
  ESP 68% / Draw 22% / URU 10%

Adjustments:
  F4a partial (creator out):                  URU -1
  F12 conservation (ESP mild, mgr statement): ESP -2, Draw +1
  F11 weather (below threshold, no heat):     0
  F11 rain + set-piece edge (ESP):            ESP +1
  Player revolt (URU chemistry):              URU -5, Draw +3
  URU must-win (opens game):                  Draw +2
  Tournament team ESP MD3 (escalation):       ESP +3
  H2H ESP unbeaten:                           ESP +1
  Bielsa wounded force:                       URU -1
  Referee Elfath card risk (URU fractious):   Draw +1

  ESP:   68 - 2 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 71  (trim -5 to balance)
  Draw:  22 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 29  (trim -2 to balance)
  URU:   10 - 1 - 5 - 1 = 3       (add +4 to balance)

Reconciled:
  ESP:    66%
  Draw:   27%
  URU:    7%
  Total:  100% ✓

8. Who Scores

Spain 🇪🇸

Uruguay 🇺🚾

9. Match Flow Projection

Critical inflection points

• 15-30': First goal window. ESP breakthrough likely → opens up game for URU → possible 2-1 / 3-1 scoreline.
• HT score: If ESP 1-0 or 2-0 at HT, URU must throw everything forward in 2nd half → blowout risk (3-0, 4-1). If 0-0 at HT, URU's desperation opens the game → late winner scenario.
• 60-75': Sub window. Yamal off reduces ESP's late xG. URU freshness could create a goal.
• 75-90': Highest variance. Valverde masterclass or URU counter via Núñez could produce a draw-saving or upset goal.

10. Methodology Notes

Findings Applied

1. Finding 1 (Draw epidemic): 27% draw probability (within 22-30% baseline). High-variance triggers (player revolt, must-win, weather) push toward high end.
2. Finding 4a (Attack gutted trigger): Partial application — De Arrascaeta OUT (creator), but Núñez + Muslera available = 1 of 3 only. NOT a full 25-30pt downgrade. Applied -1pt to URU.
3. Finding 6 (CB set-piece scoring): Both CBs included in Who Scores (Laporte/Cubarsí ~6%, Cáceres/Olivera/Giménez ~6%). Per F6 pattern (5+ tournament validations).
4. Finding 7 (Referee tournament discount): 20% on cards (Elfath 3.80 → 3.0Y), 70% on pens (0.30+ → 0.10). NED-JPN validated (3Y observed).
5. Finding 8 (Possession can flip): Not primary here (ESP dominant possession expected). But URU pressing system historically can disrupt possession teams.
6. Finding 10 (Star-as-creator): Yamal modeled as assist + scoring threat. Pedri modeled as assist primary.
7. Finding 11 (Physical & environmental): 0% adjustment — altitude below 2,000m threshold (refined Jun 19). No heat flag. Rain +1pt to ESP from set-piece edge. No pace tax at Guadalajara 1,566m.
8. Finding 12 (Conservation): -2pt ESP, +1pt draw (mild, manager statement overrides typical pattern).
9. Finding 13 (Sterile-domination screen): Watch flag for 0-0 scenario (7%). URU has no finisher (Núñez 0G, Muslera 39yo error-prone). Screen fires on URU's defensive setup IF Bielsa adapts to low block (which he won't).
10. Finding 14 (Tournament Energy Management): Tournament team ESP MD3 escalation applied (+3pt).
11. Finding 15 (Penalty rate as band): 10% pen chance, NOT load-bearing variable.
12. Finding 16 (Age-decline scorer discount): Muslera (39yo GK) error-prone — extends F16 to GKs (validated KSA-URU Jun 23). Not applied to scorer probabilities directly.
13. Finding 17 (Sterile-domination): Applies to BOTH teams potentially — ESP has finishing mechanism (Yamal + Williams + Oyarzabal firing), URU does not (Núñez 0G). Mechanism risk for ESP moderate (F22 correction: not full blowout mode).
14. Finding 18 (Bench impact conditional): ESP bench (Pino, Torres, Baena) higher if leading; URU bench (Pellistri, De la Cruz) higher if chasing late. Both teams have fresh-legs upside.
15. Finding 19 (Low-event late-winner archetype): Not the primary frame here (open game expected). But 75-90' window is high-variance.
16. Finding 20 (Favorite double-underestimate): NOT applicable here. ESP is not the underestimated favorite in a market sense (this is pure analysis, not market). The trigger is team-level age-decline in OPPONENT, not favorite. URU has age concerns (Muslera 39yo) but the structure is fractured by chemistry, not age.
17. Finding 22 (Blowout modes): Mode A applied — ESP tournament team + URU chemistry collapse = 3-0 at 7%, 4-1/4-0 in blowout band (~6%). Mode E (NED-SWE tournament-team compounding) less applicable (URU not a tournament team). EXCLUSION check: URU plays 4-3-3 high press (NOT 5-4-1 deep block + veteran GK). Muslera is veteran GK (39yo, 100+ caps) BUT the system is not a parking-the-bus setup. Blowout exclusion DOES NOT FULLY APPLY — some blowout weight justified (7% on 3-0 + ~6% on 4+ margins).

Extensions Applied

• Player revolt impact (NEW for this match): -5pt URU, +3pt draw (chemistry collapse = high variance toward draw more than upset)
• Tournament team MD3 escalation (validated MD1→MD2 ESP): +3pt ESP
• Bielsa wounded force (leaving post-tournament): -1pt URU

Key Calibration Notes

• This match has 3 high-variance triggers stacked: player revolt + must-win URU + weather delay risk. These push draw probability to 27% (high end of 22-30% baseline).
• ESP win% is not higher than 70% despite the quality gap because: (a) URU desperation + chaos creates variance, (b) ESP has soft conservation (Pedri yellow + Yamal hamstring), (c) finding 13/17 mechanisms could fire on both sides, (d) wet-pitch factor levels the playing field for set-pieces.
• URU win% is not higher than 7-8% because: (a) creative gutting (De Arrascaeta), (b) chemistry collapse (player revolt), (c) Bielsa wounded force, (d) Núñez wasteful, (e) Muslera error-prone.

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "esp-vs-uru"
date = "2026-06-26"
kickoff_cest = "02:00"
group = "H"
venue = "guadalajara"
referee = "elfath"

[win_probability]
favorite = "Spain"
win = 66
draw = 27
loss = 7

[scorelines]
"2-1" = 16
"2-0" = 14
"1-1" = 13
"3-1" = 11
"1-0" = 9
"3-0" = 7
"0-0" = 7
"4-0" = 3
"4-1" = 2
"2-2" = 5
"other" = 14

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Oyarzabal", probability = 22 }
team_a_2 = { player = "Yamal", probability = 18 }
team_a_3 = { player = "Williams", probability = 12 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Valverde", probability = 14 }
team_b_2 = { player = "Núñez", probability = 10 }
team_b_3 = { player = "Araújo", probability = 9 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 2
finding_13_fires = false
finding_16_age_decline = "Muslera"
penalty_band = "8-12%"
projected_xg = 2.30

[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 64
yellow_cards = "4-5"
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "8-12%"

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: sources/matches/esp-vs-uru/{scout,team-news-esp,team-news-uru,referee,weather}/; sources/reference/{teams/esp,teams/uru,venues/guadalajara,referees/elfath}.md; esp-vs-cpv-2026-post-event-review.md; esp-vs-ksa-2026-post-event-review.md; ksa-vs-uru-2026-post-event-review.md; uru-vs-cpv-2026-post-event-review.md; backlog/docs/doc-1, doc-5; predictions-summary.md.