Spain vs. Belgium - Pure Football Analysis (glm-5.2)

2026 World Cup, Quarter-final | July 10, 2026 | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (Los Angeles)

Kickoff: 21:00 CEST | Referee: Michael Oliver (England)

TL;DR

ESP advance 53% (90': ESP 40% / Draw 23% / BEL 37%) — modal ESP 1-0 (15%); Oyarzabal #1 ESP (26%), De Bruyne #1 BEL (24%).

Watch: Can De Bruyne + Doku manufacture the first goal Spain have conceded all tournament? If yes, BEL live (and Lukaku cavalry tilts ET); if no, ESP grind out another 1-0.

Prediction: ESP 1-0 (15%), 1-1 Draw (12%), ESP 2-0 (10%), BEL 2-1 (10%), 0-0 Draw (8%)

1. Spain — Team Profile

Basic Info

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 — shifted from canonical 4-3-3 since R32)

Key Players

Player Club Position Profile
Unai Simón Athletic GK 28, 57 caps. 0 GA in 5 WC matches — confirmed hot-GK form (×0.5-0.6).
Rodri (c) Man City DM Ballon d'Or 2024, 61 caps. The screening spine of the 0 GA block.
Lamine Yamal Barcelona RW 18, generational talent. First full 90 vs POR (hamstring managed). Tournament xG leader from the right.
Dani Olmo RB Leipzig CAM The #10, combines with Yamal, arrives late in the box.
Oyarzabal Real Sociedad CF The #9 in form — brace vs AUT (36'/89').
Fabián Ruiz ⬅️ NEW PSG DM Double-pivot partner, replaces Pedri (fresh-legs rotation; more press-resistant/physical).
Cubarsí / Laporte Barcelona / Al-Nassr CB Settled elite CB pair.

Strengths / Weaknesses

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED — ESPN API, T-35)

4-2-3-1: Unai Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri (c), Fabián Ruiz; Lamine Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.
(One change from R16: Pedri → Fabián Ruiz. GK confirmed.)

2. Belgium — Team Profile

Basic Info

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 — Plan A RESTORED for QF)

Key Players

Player Club Position Profile
Thibaut Courtois Real Madrid GK 32, 102 caps. Reputation GK (×0.25) — barely tested vs USA (1 save). NOT confirmed hot-GK form this tournament.
Kevin De Bruyne Galatasaray CAM 33, the offensive engine. Free role RW. Returns to XI. Scores + creates (F10 star-as-creator: may ASSIST 2 as easily as score).
Jérémy Doku (club) RW Returns to XI. Dribble-breaker, direct goal threat.
Romelu Lukaku (club) CF (bench) The WC supersub king — 3 bench goals, 14.3% sub-rate, IMMEDIATE impact (1 min vs NZL). By-design 60-min fitness cap.
Tielemans (c) Aston Villa CM 28. ⚠️ Workload: 300' in 9 days (120' vs SEN + 90' vs USA + likely 90' vs ESP). 2nd-half fatigue flag.
Trossard Arsenal LW Scores from the left.
De Ketelaere Atalanta CF Starting #9 (Lukaku on bench).

Strengths / Weaknesses

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED — ESPN API, T-35)

4-2-3-1: Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans (c), Raskin; Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku; De Ketelaere.
(Onana dropped (4-3-3→4-2-3-1); KDB + Doku + De Ketelaere IN; Lukaku on bench. GK confirmed.)

3. Head-to-Head Record

Date Competition Result
— — ⚠️ DATA GAP: H2H not pulled this turn (Brave Search key unavailable; no H2H file in match dir).

Treatment: Per the scout brief, ESP and BEL do not share a recent competitive history — treat as a clean tactical matchup with no historical pattern to anchor on (unlike a POR-ESP derby). The prediction does not lean on H2H. (Flagged honestly per no-fabrication rule.)

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Factor Value Impact
Temp (kickoff) 22.8°C (73°F) Below 28°C threshold — NO heat penalty.
Humidity 71% Mild; irrelevant at this temp.
Wind 10 mph SW (onshore) Negligible.
Precip 0% None.
Roof (SoFi) Fixed ETFE canopy (302 panels, 46 operable vents; NOT retractable, NOT sealed dome) Partial-bowl shade; open N/S ends. "Indoor by classification," functionally open-air with shade.
Altitude ~sea level (Inglewood) No altitude tax (threshold ≥2,000m).
Source NWS hourly gridpoint LOX/151,41, captured 2026-07-10 18:30 UTC Match-day forecast ✅

Impact Analysis

5. Referee Analysis

Statistic Career Tournament (WC26, 3 matches) Discounted (QF)
Yellow cards/game 3.05–3.72 4.33 (inflated by CAN-MAR 8Y; without it 2.5) 3–4Y
Red cards/game 0.14–0.15 0.00 (0 in 3) 0R most likely
Penalties/game 0.15–0.29 (NORMAL/low-moderate) 0.33 (1 in 3) ~10–15% chance ≥1 pen
Fouls/game 22.8 26.3 ~24

High-Pen Archetype Check (Rule #16)

NOT High-Pen. Oliver's career pen rate (0.15–0.29) is below the >0.30 threshold. He is NOT in the Barton/Tantashev/Ma Ning/Tejera/Kovacs archetype. The pen band is a modest probability, NOT a load-bearing variable.

Personality

Prediction

3–4 yellows, 0 reds, ~12% penalty chance. Neutral referee — slightly helps the cleaner technical side (ESP) because Oliver punishes repeated tactical fouling, but he will not decide this QF with a soft penalty.

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 ESP's 0 GA block vs BEL's restored Plan A attack

The defining matchup. ESP have not conceded in 5 matches (Simón + Cubarsí/Laporte + Rodri screening). BEL's best creators (KDB, Doku) return fresh. This is the strongest attack ESP's block has faced — but also the strongest defense BEL's attack has faced (BEL conceded 5 in 5; ESP conceded 0). The 0 GA compound (×0.5-0.6 confirmed form, R32-5f: block + GK) is the tournament's strongest defensive signal. If it holds, ESP grind a 1-0/2-0. If KDB/Doku manufacture the first breach, the match opens up.

6.2 Yamal (RW) vs De Cuyper (BEL LB) + Doku (RW) vs Cucurella (ESP LB)

Both flanks are live. Yamal is the tournament xG leader from the right; De Cuyper is decent but outmatched. Symmetrically, Doku's dribbling tests Cucurella — if Doku breaks through, ESP concede for the first time. The flank that wins tilts the match.

6.3 Rodri-Fabián pivot vs Tielemans-Raskin (BEL workload)

Rodri is the best screening DM in the world; Fabián (in for Pedri) is more press-resistant and physical — a deliberate choice vs BEL's transitions. Tielemans has played 300' in 9 days (120' vs SEN + 90' vs USA) — a 2nd-half fatigue flag. If Garcia doesn't rotate (Witsel/Onana available), BEL's midfield engine fades after 60', handing ESP the territorial edge.

6.4 The bench battle — Lukaku cavalry vs Merino/Williams

BEL's bench (14.3% sub-scoring, Lukaku 3 bench goals) is the WC's best supersub unit. ESP's bench (4.3%, Merino only — but he scored the R16 90'+1' winner) is shallower but has the hot hand. Per Finding 18, bench creators are game-state-conditional: BEL's bench EXPLODES when the block has tired/opened (late, favorite chasing — SUI-BIH pattern, Finding 21) but produces less vs a set deep block. If ESP lead and sit, BEL's bench chases a set block (GHA-PAN pattern — harder). If level/BEL lead, the bench thrives. This is why BEL's advance (47%) outruns their 90' win% (37%): Lukaku in ET is a live upset weapon.

6.5 Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — walked independently)

⚡ Per TASK-99, I resolve all 6 steps myself from doc-1's Findings + the briefs + predictions-summary. Numbers shown explicitly.

Step 0 — WDM Anchor (§6.6):

Factor ESP BEL ESP share
Squad value (×3) €861M €549M 0.611
FIFA rank (inverted) #2 → 98 #9 → 91 0.519
Tournament form (opp-tier-weighted PPG, all 5 WC) 4.90 3.40 0.590
Qualifying form (UEFA PPG, est.) ~2.4 ~2.0 0.545
GDiff (×0.5 minor, +10 shift) +9 +8 0.514

Tournament form detail (R32-2 weighting): ESP = D v CPV(T3,×0.5)=0.5 + W v KSA(T3)=3 + W v URU(T2)=6 + W v AUT(T2)=6 + W v POR(T1)=9 → 24.5/5 = 4.90. BEL = D v EGY(T2)=1.5 + D v IRN(T3)=0.5 + W v NZL(T3)=3 + W v SEN(T2)=6 + W v USA(T2)=6 → 17/5 = 3.40. (⚠️ BEL MD3 vs NZL score discrepancy in sources — team-news-bel lists "1-0" but Guardian match report + sub-impact data [2 BEL sub goals] confirm a multi-goal win; result is a W regardless, so WDM form is unaffected. Flagged.)

ESP composite = 3.0(0.611) + 1.0(0.519) + 1.0(0.590) + 1.0(0.545) + 0.5(0.514) = 3.744
fav_share = 3.744 / 6.5 = 0.576  (≈ 0.58-0.60, moderate favorite boundary)
fav_baseline = 28 + (0.576−0.50)×90 = 34.8 → clamped 35%
draw_baseline = 26% → §7K KO band (fav_share ~0.58, at the 0.60 boundary): 23%
BEL = 100 − 35 − 23 = 42%
WDM ANCHOR: ESP 35% / Draw 23% / BEL 42%

The raw WDM gives BEL a marginal 90' edge — a known quirk of fav_share < 0.60 (the draw band is large enough that the dog's 90' win% can match the favorite's). This reflects a genuinely close QF. ESP's "moderate favorite" status emerges from the finding adjustments below + the KO decision tree (ET/pens, where the defensive solidity tells).

Step 1 — KO context: QF. No group standings, no must-win/GD-chase logic. Bracket incentive (Finding 24): winner faces FRA in SF (Jul 14) — both have full SF motivation, no conservation. Yellow-card SF suspension risk: Mechele (BEL) is 1 yellow from SF suspension; may temper tackle intensity slightly. No ESP carryover bookings confirmed. Net: urgency symmetric, both full-throttle.

Step 2 — Conservation (F12): 0% for both. QF knockout — neither side can conserve. De la Fuente (aggressive-trust-system) and Garcia (pragmatic but bold rotator) both play to win. Defending-champion reduction N/A (ESP are Euro champs, not WC defending). No milestone-chasing star flagged. Empirical ×1.5 multiplier on a 0% base = 0%.

Step 3 — Weather × style (F11): NEUTRALIZED. 22.8°C, fixed canopy, below threshold. R32-5a (tier modulator) and R32-5b (age modulator) do not fire (no heat). No pressing degradation. 0% adjustment.

Step 4 — Weather × defense stack: N/A — no heat. The draw-stack compound (heat + low block + hot GK) does not form. BEL's GK (Courtois) is reputation-only (×0.25, NOT confirmed form — R32-5f), so even the hot-GK draw-forcer is absent. No draw inflation from conditions.

Step 5 — Temperament: De la Fuente = HIGH discipline (0 GA, trust-system through adversity, won't panic if down). Garcia = MEDIUM-HIGH (bold rotator, lead-cautious; R16 bench strategy validated as an upgrade, not gutting). Both managers are conservative with the game state — if either leads 1-0, they will sit (R32-5c: KO favorites play reactive with a lead). This caps blowout probability and supports the 1-0/2-1 scoreline band.

Step 6 — Synthesis (show the math):

Start: WDM anchor ESP 35% / Draw 23% / BEL 42%

Delta Effect Justification
F4/F17 ESP 0 GA confirmed hot-GK+block compound (×0.5-0.6) +5 ESP / −5 BEL 5 clean sheets — the tournament's strongest defensive signal. Block + GK compound (R32-5f). Current-form defensive quality, NOT pedigree. R32-1 cap: +5pt is the max allowed — justified, not exceeded.
BEL bench cavalry (Lukaku 14.3%, validated) (baked into BEL 37%) Real BEL upside, but a limited-minutes asset (Lukaku plays ~25'); does not fully offset the 5-match structural defensive edge. Surfaces in the ET/advance tree, not the 90' base.
Tielemans workload (300'/9 days) net ~0 (subsumed) Mild BEL 2nd-half fatigue; offsets the bench cavalry within the 90' number.
F8 possession flip (R32-5c) net ~0 Cap ESP KO possession ~52%; BEL's Plan A competes for the ball. Prevents over-weighting ESP possession dominance.

Adjusted 90': ESP 40% / Draw 23% / BEL 37% (ESP deviation +5pt from WDM anchor — at the R32-1 cap, justified by the 0 GA compound).

This reconciles with the §7K tree below: ESP advance 53% / BEL 47%.

6.6 WDM Baseline Anchor — already computed in Step 0 above

WDM ANCHOR: ESP 35% / Draw 23% / BEL 42% (fav_share 0.576).

Deviation from anchor: +5pt ESP (to 40% in 90'), justified by the 0 GA confirmed-form defensive compound — a verifiable current-form quality edge the WDM's squad-value proxy does not encode (the WDM captures player quality but not 5-match defensive cohesion). This is NOT "KO experience" or "tournament pedigree" (both excluded by R32-1); it is in-tournament defensive performance. At the +5pt cap. ✅

7K. Knockout Prediction

QF — draw at 90' is a REAL outcome. Full decision tree: 90' → ET → Pens → Advance. Draw band by fav_share (R32-4): fav_share ~0.58 (boundary) → draw 23%.

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Outcome Probability Rationale
Spain win in 90' 40% WDM 35% + 5pt (0 GA compound, R32-1 capped). 0 GA block + xG dominance (2.80/1.77) → ESP grind 1-0/2-0.
Draw at 90' 23% KO band (fav_share ~0.58). ESP 0 GA vs BEL attack = stalemate risk; or 1-1 if BEL breaches once. Conditional on no early goal (R32-5h): if ESP scores by 25', draw collapses to <10%.
Belgium win in 90' 37% WDM 42% − 5pt (0 GA suppresses BEL scoring). KDB+Doku Plan A + a Lukaku-style late winner. BEL's best path is scoring first and sitting (Garcia lead-cautious).

Extra Time (conditional — given draw at 90')

Outcome Cond. % Rationale
Spain win in ET 32% Possession control + 0 GA holds; Oyarzabal/Yamal finds a gap, or a set piece. Tired legs limit ESP's press but their structure survives.
Draw after ET (→pens) 43% Most likely ET outcome — both defenses hold, neither forces it. ESP's 0 GA + BEL's defensive caution = stalemate extends.
Belgium win in ET 25% Lukaku cavalry (if not already on) or Doku counter breaks ESP's defense for the first time. BEL's bench edge in fresh-legs ET.

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens reached)

Outcome Cond. % Rationale
Spain win on pens 53% Simón's tournament form (0 GA, confirmed hot) + Spanish takers (Yamal/Olmo/Oyarzabal/Rodri/Baena) technically elite. Slight edge.
Belgium win on pens 47% Courtois elite shot-stopper but not a penalty-save specialist; BEL takers (KDB/Trossard/Tielemans/De Ketelaere/Lukaku) good but less reliable historically.

Advance Probability (unconditional — show the math)

Team Advance % Calculation
Spain 53% 0.40 + (0.23 × 0.32) + (0.23 × 0.43 × 0.53) = 0.40 + 0.074 + 0.052 = 0.526
Belgium 47% 0.37 + (0.23 × 0.25) + (0.23 × 0.43 × 0.47) = 0.37 + 0.058 + 0.046 = 0.474

Scoreline Distribution (90' only)

Score Probability Scenario
ESP 1-0 15% 0 GA extends to 6; Oyarzabal/Yamal scores; BEL's attack meets the wall. ESP's signature (vs URU, vs POR).
1-1 Draw 12% KDB/Doku manufacture the first breach; ESP responds. → ET.
ESP 2-0 10% Comfortable clean-sheet win; 0 GA holds, ESP creates 2.
BEL 2-1 10% BEL outscores ESP; 0 GA broken, Lukaku/Doku decisive.
0-0 Draw 8% Defensive stalemate — ESP 0 GA, BEL stymied. → ET/pens.
(Other) 45% ESP 2-1 (8%), BEL 1-0 (8%), BEL 2-0 (7%), ESP 3-0 (4%), BEL 3-1 (6%), 2-2 (3%), ESP 3-1 (3%), BEL 3-2 (4%), ESP 4-0 (1%), BEL 4-1 (1%)

ESP 1-0 in 90' (15%) — Spain's 0 GA defensive compound holds for a 6th match, Oyarzabal or Yamal scores from ESP's xG-dominant creation, and BEL's restored Plan A finally meets a wall it cannot breach. This is the single most likely full path.

Runner-up: 1-1 at 90' → 0-0 ET → ESP win on pens (2.7%) — the path if BEL scores first and ESP responds, then both defenses hold through ET.

8. Who Scores

Spain

Rank Player Position Probability Rationale
1 Oyarzabal CF 26% The #9 in form — brace vs AUT (36'/89'). Penalty-box finisher; gets ESP's best chances.
2 Lamine Yamal RW 23% Generational talent, tournament xG leader from the right. Creates + finishes. First full 90 vs POR (hamstring managed, no flag).
3 Dani Olmo CAM 14% The #10; combines with Yamal, arrives late in the box.
4 Mikel Merino bench CM 8% R16 90'+1' winner — Finding 19 late-arriving runner. Hot hand off the bench.
5 Cubarsí / Laporte CB 5% Finding 6 — CB set-piece from corners.
(Other: Baena, Rodri, Ferran, Morata) 24% Baena scored vs URU; Rodri late runner (F19); spread threat.

Belgium

Rank Player Position Probability Rationale
1 Kevin De Bruyne CAM 24% The engine, returns to XI, free role. Scores + creates — ⚠️ F10: may ASSIST 2 as easily as score (star-as-creator).
2 Jérémy Doku RW 18% Returns fresh; dribble-breaker, direct goal threat from the right.
3 Romelu Lukaku bench CF 16% WC supersub king — 3 bench goals, IMMEDIATE impact. By-design 60-min cap; comes on 60-70'. Limited minutes cap the probability but high efficiency.
4 Leandro Trossard LW 12% Arsenal forward; scores from the left.
5 Charles De Ketelaere CF 10% Starting #9 (Atalanta).
(Other: Tielemans, Mechele/Ngoy CB, Lukebakio) 20% Tielemans ET brace vs SEN (late runner, F19); CB set-piece (F6, ~4%).

9. Match Flow Projection

Timeframe Expected Pattern
0–15' ESP possession control (Rodri-Fabián); BEL absorbs in a mid-block, feels ESP out. Oliver lets play flow. Both sides probe.
15–45' ESP presses higher; Yamal vs De Cuyper + Olmo combinations create half-chances. BEL counters via Doku/KDB — ESP's block neutralizes transitions. 0-0 or 1-0 ESP at HT most likely (ESP's goals vs AUT: 36'/66'/89'; vs POR: 90'+1').
45–60' ESP likely scores if they haven't (their goals cluster 36'-89'). If ESP lead 1-0, Garcia turns to Plan B (Lukaku warm-up). If 0-0, BEL grows into it.
60–75' BEL brings on Lukaku (supersub window). ESP may introduce Pedri (fresh pivot) / Ferran / Williams. Game opens. Tielemans fatigue shows — ESP edges territorial control.
75–90' If ESP lead, they manage the game (0 GA, De la Fuente trust-system). If level, both push — late-winner scenario live (Merino R16 pattern, Finding 19). If BEL lead, Garcia sits (lead-cautious).
ET (if 1-1/0-0) Cautious, tired legs. Defenses hold (43% → pens). ESP possession control vs BEL counter/Lukaku.
Pens (if reached) ESP shade it 53% — Simón's tournament form + Spanish composure.

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied:

Empirical calibration weights applied: hot_gk ×0.5-0.6 (confirmed form); sterile ×2.0 (did not fire); context ×2.0 (KO draw band); momentum ×1.75 (ESP form trajectory); conservation ×1.5 (0% base).

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "esp-vs-bel"
date = "2026-07-10"
kickoff_cest = "21:00"
group = "QF"
venue = "los-angeles"
referee = "oliver"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
# KNOCKOUT: win/draw/loss = team A win in 90' / draw at 90' / team B win in 90' (sum to 100)
favorite = "Spain"
win = 40                  # ESP win in 90'
draw = 23                 # draw at 90'
loss = 37                 # BEL win in 90'

[knockout]
# ET conditional on draw at 90' (sum to 100). Pen conditional on pens reached.
win_et = 32               # ESP win in ET (conditional on draw at 90')
draw_et = 43              # draw after ET -> pens (conditional on draw at 90')
loss_et = 25              # BEL win in ET (conditional on draw at 90')
pen_win = 53              # ESP win on pens (conditional on pens reached)
advance_a = 53            # ESP total advance probability (unconditional)
advance_b = 47            # BEL total advance probability (unconditional)

[scorelines]
# top 5 ranked scorelines (90' only); unique keys (BEL wins suffixed)
"1-0" = 15                # ESP 1-0
"1-1" = 12                # draw
"2-0" = 10                # ESP 2-0
"2-1_BEL" = 10            # BEL 2-1
"0-0" = 8                 # draw

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Oyarzabal", probability = 26 }
team_a_2 = { player = "Yamal", probability = 23 }
team_a_3 = { player = "Olmo", probability = 14 }
team_b_1 = { player = "De Bruyne", probability = 24 }
team_b_2 = { player = "Doku", probability = 18 }
team_b_3 = { player = "Lukaku", probability = 16 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0      # 0 pts (QF, F12 = 0%)
finding_13_fires = false       # sterile-domination screen did NOT fire (both scoring freely)
finding_16_age_decline = ""    # no 38+ outfield scorer (KDB 33 is not age-decline territory)
penalty_band = "10-15%"        # Oliver normal/low-moderate pen rate
projected_xg = 1.8             # ESP projected xG (0 GA defense; avg ~2.0 recent, vs BEL block ~1.8)

[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 52       # ESP predicted possession % (capped per F8/R32-5c KO-favorite pattern)
yellow_cards = "3-4"           # Oliver, tournament-discounted
red_cards = 0                  # 0 reds most likely
penalty_chance = "10-15%"      # ~12% chance of >=1 pen (normal pen rate)

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: scout brief, lineups (ESPN API confirmed T-35), team-news-esp/bel injury reports, referee profile (Oliver, 6 archived files), canonical team profiles (esp.md/bel.md), sub-impact profiles, venue profile (los-angeles.md), NWS match-day forecast, experiments/squad-values.json. Source archive: sources/matches/esp-vs-bel/

Data gaps flagged: (1) H2H not pulled — treated as clean tactical matchup; (2) BEL MD3 vs NZL score discrepancy in sources (1-0 vs 5-1) — result is a W either way, WDM unaffected; (3) qualifying PPG are estimates (UEFA). No model-breaking gaps — GKs confirmed, XIs confirmed, weather sourced, referee profiled.