Spain vs. Austria - Pure Football Analysis (GLM-5 Turbo)

2026 World Cup, R32 (Round of 32) | July 2, 2026 | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood CA

Kickoff: 21:00 CEST | Referee: Glenn Nyberg (Sweden)

TL;DR

Spain 68% to advance — Yamal vs. Laimer LB is the match-deciding mismatch; ESP's 0-GA defensive spine + Oyarzabal's Golden Boot chase (3 goals) too much for AUT's porous gegenpress (6 GA in 3 games). Nyberg: 2-3 yellows, 0 reds, 5-10% pen band.

• ESP win 90': 53% — Tournament team (Euro 2024 winners, 33-game unbeaten, 0 GA group stage) against a side that conceded 6 in the group; possession breaks gegenpress eventually.
• AUT win 90': 25% — Gegenpress can steal one transition; Sabitzer creator quality; nothing-to-lose freedom (first R32 since 1982).
• Draw at 90': 22% — AUT nicks a set-piece or counter; ESP's finishing wobbles (MD1 memory); Schlager has a competent-not-elite day.
• Who Scores #1: Yamal (ESP, 24%) — isolates Laimer at LB (not his natural position); Sabitzer (AUT, 15%) — captain, set-piece + distance + counter-creator.
• Modal scoreline: ESP 2-1 (17%).
• Watch: Yamal's hamstring — if he goes down >65', ESP's wing attack collapses to Ferran Torres (bench). Sub risk >30%.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 (17%), Spain 2-0 (15%), Spain 1-0 (13%), 1-1 Draw (12%), Spain 3-1 (9%), Spain 3-0 (8%)

1. Spain — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #2 (97 inverted points)
• Manager: Luis de la Fuente (64, Spain) — calm, methodical, possession-based. Euro 2024 winner. NOT conservative; trusts the system.
• WC History: 2010 winners. Euro 2024 champions. Pre-tournament favorites for WC 2026. First WC squad with NO Real Madrid players.
• Form: 33-game unbeaten run in regulation (last loss: March 2024 vs. Colombia). Group H: 7pts, 1st, 0 goals conceded, +5 GD.
  • MD1: 0-0 vs. Cape Verde (27 shots, 2.29 xG, 0 goals — Vozinha MOTM)
  • MD2: 4-0 vs. Saudi Arabia (Yamal 10', Oyarzabal 21'/24', OG 49')
  • MD3: 1-0 vs. Uruguay (Baena 42')
• Base camp: Chattanooga, TN (~3,500 km from LA; 4-5h flight + climate transition from humid 28°C to dry 23°C)
• Tier: 1 (genuine trophy contender)

Tactical Identity — 4-2-3-1 (confirmed XI, NOT canonical 4-3-3)

• Double pivot (Rodri + Pedri) provides control against gegenpress — frees Olmo as true #10 between the lines.
• Yamal isolates the opposing LB; Baena inverts from LW to combine centrally (NOT Nico Williams' direct/wide profile).
• Oyarzabal as #9 — penalty taker, Golden Boot candidate (3 goals).
• Key XI change from group stage: Repeats the MD2 XI that beat KSA 4-0 (per La Vanguardia). De la Fuente trusts the proven formula.
• High full-backs (Porro + Cucurella) push to create overloads on flanks.

Key Players

Strengths

• Defensive elite: 0 GA in group stage — best in tournament. Laporte-Cubarsí CB pair is settled; Rodri shields everything.
• Midfield control: Rodri + Pedri double pivot can absorb gegenpress and retain possession. No team in the tournament has broken them.
• Tournament pedigree: Euro 2024 winners + 33-game unbeaten run. Proven under tournament pressure.
• Finishing depth: Oyarzabal (3 goals) + Yamal + Olmo + Baena provide multiple scoring mechanisms.

Weaknesses

• Wing depth crisis: Nico Williams OUT (adductor, MD3), Yeremy Pino OUT (AC sprain, MD3). Only Yamal is a natural winger. If Yamal's hamstring flares → ESP wing attack collapses. Bench options: Ferran Torres (direct LW), Bryan Zaragoza (utility winger).
• Finishing variability: MD1 produced 2.29 xG → 0 goals. The ghost of Vozinha lingers. Not sterile domination (Yamal was benched), but a reminder that xG ≠ goals.
• Travel: 3,500 km from base camp vs. AUT's 150 km. Mild domestic flight burden (not intercontinental, but non-zero).

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via ESPN)

4-2-3-1: Unai Simón — Pedro Porro, Laporte, Cubarsí, Cucurella — Rodri (c), Pedri — Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Álex Baena — Mikel Oyarzabal

2. Austria — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #21 (79 inverted points)
• Manager: Ralf Rangnick (67, Germany) — gegenpress inventor. Strategist, demanding. Will commit to pressing DNA.
• WC History: Group-stage exits recent. First R32 since 1982 (44-year drought ended by Kalajdzic 96' equalizer vs. ALG).
• Form: Group J 2nd, 4pts, 0 GD, 6 GA in 3 games.
  • MD1: 3-1 vs. Jordan (Arnautović pen, flattering — 1-1 at 75', OG + late pen)
  • MD2: 0-2 vs. Argentina (gegenpress failed, 0.50 xG, 1 SoT)
  • MD3: 3-3 vs. Algeria (Arnautović 28', Sabitzer, Kalajdzic 96' equalizer — dramatic qualification)
• Base camp: Goleta, CA (UCSB Harder Stadium — ~150 km from LA, 2h drive, same coastal climate. 27+ days acclimatized).
• Tier: 2 (dark horse)

Tactical Identity — 4-2-3-1 gegenpress

• Pressing trigger: Gregoritsch leads the press; Wanner (#10) and Schmid/Sabitzer (AM line) swarm the ball-carrier.
• Double pivot: Seiwald + X. Schlager protect the back 4 when press is bypassed.
• Laimer at LB: Tactical (not injury) — specifically to combat Yamal. Mwene OUT injured; Laimer shifted from CM to LB (per laola1.at: "Da ist es naheliegend auf Laimer gegen Lamine Yamal zu setzen").
• Arnautović on bench: Not injury — Rangnick chose Gregoritsch for pressing intensity. Arnautović may appear 60-75' as target-man sub.
• Rangnick studied ESP MD3 (1-0 vs. URU): "Spain did not create many clear chances; Uruguay played very bravely" — the template is press high + be physical.

Key Players

Strengths

• Gegenpress intensity: When it works, AUT wins the ball high and transitions quickly. Produced 6 goals in 3 games.
• Nothing-to-lose freedom: First R32 in 44 years. No pressure = full commitment to pressing. Emotional momentum from Kalajdzic 96' equalizer.
• Sabitzer creator quality: One of the most technically gifted players on the pitch. Can score from distance or set pieces.
• Travel advantage: 150 km from base camp. Same climate. Perfect acclimatization (10/10).

Weaknesses

• Defensive vulnerability: 6 GA in 3 games. Gegenpress creates space behind when bypassed — ARG exploited this 0-2 (MD2). 0.50 xG generated vs. ARG.
• GK not elite: Schlager is competent but conceded 2+ in 2 of 3 group games. No tournament hot-GK pedigree.
• Laimer out of position: Natural CM playing LB to mark Yamal. If Yamal isolates him 1v1, this is a mismatch ESP can exploit.
• Age-decline striker depth: Arnautović (35) on bench — F16 discount applies. Kalajdzic is the impact sub, not Arnautović.
• Press sustainability: ARG broke the press by MD2 second half. ESP has even better ball retention than ARG.

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via ESPN)

4-2-3-1: Alexander Schlager — Stefan Posch, Kevin Danso, David Alaba, Konrad Laimer (LB) — Xaver Schlager, Nicolas Seiwald — Romano Schmid, Paul Wanner, Marcel Sabitzer (c) — Michael Gregoritsch

3. Head-to-Head Record

Overall: 16 meetings — ESP ~10W, 2-3D, 4 AUT wins. Spain dominant post-1990 (5W-1D-0L). No current ESP player was alive for the last AUT win (1990). H2H is historically dominant but not predictive — rosters are entirely different.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis

• Finding 11 heat penalty: DOES NOT APPLY. 73°F peak is 5°C below threshold. SoFi canopy neutralizes sun exposure.
• Finding 11 travel: AUT has home-like advantage (150 km, same climate, 27 days acclimatized). ESP traveled 3,500 km from humid Chattanooga to dry coastal LA — mild domestic flight penalty (~1-3%). Not intercontinental, so penalty is small. Applied -1pt to ESP.
• No hydration breaks expected. Nyberg used 2 breaks in GHA-PAN (Toronto heat) — irrelevant here.
• Ideal football conditions. No weather variable affects the probabilities.

5. Referee Analysis

Glenn Nyberg (Sweden, 37, FIFA since 2016)

Career + Tournament Record

WC 2026 Tournament Record (4 matches including this one)

• SWE 5-1 TUN: 1Y, 0R, 0P (blowout context)
• GHA-PAN: 3Y, 0R, 0P (1 pen claim REFUSED)
• CUR-CIV: 3Y, 0R, 0P
• Tournament trend: 7Y / 0R / 0P in 3 matches = 2.33 Y/match, 0.00 P/match

Key Characteristics

• Lenient — tournament Y/match (2.33) is 25% below career rate (3.10). Consistent with Finding 7 (refs more lenient at WCs).
• Low pen band: Career 0.26 P/match → discounted ~5-10% for this match. 0 pens in 3 WC matches validates the tournament regression. The "no-referee-pen" trend is strong at this WC (POR-DRC, GHA-PAN, CUR-CIV all 0 pens).
• Tuchel handball precedent (UCL QF Apr 2024): Nyberg refused Gabriel's accidental handball pen — "kid's mistake, won't give it in a quarterfinal." Will NOT manufacture spot kicks.
• Advantage play: Tends to let physical challenges go. Slightly favors possession teams (ESP). AUT's gegenpress fouls may NOT get advantage calls.
• VAR clean: 0 VAR overturns in 3 WC matches. VAR unlikely to be a decisive variable.

Prediction

• 2-3 yellows (most likely 2). AUT likely to pick up more (gegenpress fouls). ESP averages ~1.2Y/game (lowest at WC26).
• 0 reds (most likely). Max 1 low-probability 2nd-yellow scenario.
• 5-10% penalty chance (career 0.26 discounted + 0 in 3 WC matches). Do NOT load this into the scoreline.

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 Yamal vs. Laimer (LB) — The Match-Up

The defining individual battle. Laimer is a natural CM/pressing midfielder, shifted to LB specifically to combat Yamal. He is NOT a natural full-back — he lacks the positional discipline and 1v1 defensive training that a specialist LB brings. Yamal (18, generational talent, Euro 2024 star) will look to isolate Laimer wide, use his acceleration and footwork to beat him on the dribble, and force Danso/Alaba to cover across. If Yamal wins this matchup, ESP's attack flows. If Laimer can contain him (with Seiwald/Sabitzer cover), AUT's press can sustain. Edge: Yamal — but the hamstring risk (>30% sub probability at 65-70') looms.

6.2 Rodri-Pedri Pivot vs. Gegenpress

AUT's gegenpress aims to swarm Rodri when he receives the ball from the CBs. ARG showed this can work (0.50 xG for AUT in MD2) but also that a top-tier possession team eventually bypasses it. Rodri has faced high presses all season (Man City in the PL). Pedri's press resistance is among the best in world football. The pivot should absorb the press and find the angles to release Yamal/Olmo. The question is whether AUT can sustain the press for 60+ minutes — MD2 vs. ARG suggests they fade after ~50-60'.

6.3 Olmo as #10 vs. AUT Double Pivot

Olmo operating as a free #10 between AUT's lines is a new dimension for ESP in this tournament. In MD1 (0-0 vs. CPV) he was on the left; here he's central. X. Schlager + Seiwald are defensively solid but neither is a creative DM — they protect space but don't press the #10. Olmo can receive between the lines, turn, and find Yamal/Oyarzabal/Baena running in behind. If AUT's double pivot doesn't track Olmo, he becomes the match-winner.

6.4 AUT Transition Threat vs. ESP High Line

When AUT wins the ball high (via gegenpress), they transition vertically to Gregoritsch or Sabitzer in space. ESP's high line (Porro + Cucurella pushed up) creates space behind. Laporte's recovery pace and Rodri's covering drops are critical. AUT's most likely goal comes from a gegenpress turnover → quick vertical pass → finish. ARG showed this is possible (AUT had 0.50 xG vs. ARG despite losing 0-2).

6.5 Set Pieces vs. Alaba

Alaba is AUT's most dangerous set-piece threat (free-kick specialist from his RM/AM days). ESP's Laporte-Cubarsí pair is dominant aerially but a well-delivered free-kick from 20-25 yards could trouble Simón (who hasn't faced a truly dangerous set-piece taker at this WC). Alaba as a 4% scorer is the ceiling — but it's a live scenario.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution

⚡ MANDATORY. Walking doc-5's 6-step decision graph independently. All numbers derived from doc-1 Findings + archived briefs + predictions-summary.

Step 0 — WDM Baseline Anchor (§6.6)

Raw factors:

*ESP form: Drew CPV T3 (1pt×0.5=0.5) + Beat KSA T3 (3pt×1.0=3.0) + Beat URU T1 (3pt×3.0=9.0) = 12.5/3 = 4.17 wPPG. AUT form: Beat JOR T3 (3pt×1.0=3.0) + Lost ARG T1 (0) + Drew ALG T3 (1pt×0.5=0.5) = 3.5/3 = 1.17 wPPG.
†Qualifying: ESP perfect WCQ (estimated 2.7 PPG); AUT qualified via UEFA playoffs (estimated 1.8 PPG). Sources: Transfermarkt WCQ records.

Weighted composite:

score_a = 3.0×0.775 + 1.0×0.551 + 1.0×0.781 + 1.0×0.600 + 0.5×0.600
        = 2.325 + 0.551 + 0.781 + 0.600 + 0.300
        = 4.557
score_b = 6.5 − 4.557 = 1.943
fav_share = 4.557 / 6.5 = 0.701

Baseline probabilities:

fav_baseline = 28 + (0.701 − 0.50) × 90 = 28 + 18.1 = 46.1 → 46%
draw_baseline = 22%  (R32-4: fav_share 0.60-0.70 → 20-25%)
AUT_baseline = 100 − 46 − 22 = 32%

WDM ANCHOR: ESP 46% / Draw 22% / AUT 32%

fav_share = 0.701 — moderate favorite. R32-1 deviation cap does NOT apply (cap is only for fav_share < 0.65). Deviation allowed with justification.

Step 1 — Group Context & Bracket

• Both teams in R32 = must-win. No conservation for either side. Tournament-over stakes.
• R16 reward: France (confirmed — FRA beat SWE 3-0 on Jun 30). Both teams face the same Tier 1 opponent if they advance. No bracket incentive asymmetry.
• ESP posture: Full intensity. De la Fuente is NOT a conservative pragmatist — he goes for the kill. 33-game unbeaten run = confidence, not complacency.
• AUT posture: Nothing-to-lose. First R32 since 1982. Full gegenpress commitment from kickoff. Emotional momentum (Kalajdzic 96' equalizer).
• No yellow-card management: All yellows wiped post-group stage. No player is one-yellow-from-suspension. Clean slate for both.
• Asymmetry: AUT has the freedom to over-commit (no consequences beyond elimination), while ESP must balance intensity with not burning out before FRA. But R32 first → both go full throttle.
• Step 1 delta: 0pt (no conservation, no bracket asymmetry).

Step 2 — Conservation (Finding 12)

• ESP: 0% conservation. R32 must-win + De la Fuente aggressive personality + no defending-champion discount (ESP is Euro champion but NOT WC defending champion — Finding 14 doesn't apply here).
• AUT: 0% conservation. R32 must-win + nothing-to-lose + Rangnick pressing DNA.
• Empirical weight (×1.5): 0 × 1.5 = 0.
• Step 2 delta: 0pt.

Step 3 — Weather × Style (Finding 11)

• F11 NEUTRALIZED. 73°F peak, SoFi canopy closed, no heat flag. No press degradation scenario.
• Finding 11 travel: ESP 3,500 km vs. AUT 150 km. Mild domestic penalty.
• Step 3 delta: -1pt ESP (travel disadvantage, small but real).

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack

• Heat + low block + hot GK = DRAW → DOES NOT FIRE. No heat, AUT is NOT a low-block team (they gegenpress), Schlager is NOT a hot GK (reputation only, ×0.25 calibration → negligible).
• Step 4 delta: 0pt.

Step 5 — Temperament

• De la Fuente: HIGH discipline, players buy in, sticks to system under adversity. Not conservative in-game. No chemistry issues. Execution: HIGH.
• Rangnick: HIGH discipline, gegenpress DNA ingrained. Willing to commit. But gegenpress was broken by ARG in MD2 — the press has a sustainability ceiling vs. top-tier possession. Execution: MODERATE-HIGH (game plan is sound but may fail against superior ball retention).
• Key asymmetry: ESP's system is more resilient under pressure (possession teams can absorb and recycle). AUT's system is binary (press works = dangerous; press fails = exposed).
• Step 5 delta: +2pt ESP (system resilience advantage).

Step 6 — Synthesis — Show the Math

WDM ANCHOR:          ESP 46% / Draw 22% / AUT 32%
                    ─────────────────────────────────
F12 Conservation:      0pt (R32 must-win, both 0%)
F11 Weather:         -1pt (ESP travel disadvantage)
F13 Sterile dom:      0pt (does NOT fire — Yamal starts, no hot GK)
F4a Attack gutted:   -5pt (Williams+Pino OUT; wing depth fragility; spine intact → -5 not -25)
F4 Hot GK:            0pt (Schlager reputation only ×0.25 → negligible)
F20 Age-decline:      0pt (AUT midfield spine young, Alaba 33 < 38 threshold)
F22 Blowout:          0pt (affects scorelines, not W/D/L — AUT open shape, exclusion does NOT fire)
Tournament team:      +8pt (ESP: Euro 2024 winners + 0 GA group + beat URU T1 — proven)
Momentum (×1.75):    +3pt (ESP 33-game unbeaten vs AUT 0 GD, 6 GA)
Tactical edge:       +2pt (possession vs broken gegenpress — ARG template)
                    ─────────────────────────────────
Net adjustment:      +7pt
ADJUSTED:            ESP 53% / Draw 22% / AUT 25%

Sum check: 53 + 22 + 25 = 100% ✓

Key justification for +8pt tournament-team deviation: ESP is a proven tournament team (Euro 2024 winners, 0 GA at WC 2026, beat URU Tier 1, 33-game unbeaten). The WDM's €861M vs. €250M gap (squad share 0.775) already captures squad quality, but the tournament overperformance pattern (Finding 22: JPN, NED, GER, BRA, ARG, FRA, ESP, ENG are Tournament Teams whose system exceeds squad-value seed) justifies additional weight. +8pt is within the validated +8-12pt range for teams with 2+ statement wins.

Key justification for -5pt wing depth: Williams + Pino OUT removes 2 of 3 natural wingers. Only Yamal remains. If Yamal's hamstring flares (a known risk — managed minutes MD1, started MD2+MD3), ESP's wing attack collapses to Ferran Torres (bench, not same profile). This is NOT an attack gutting (spine intact) but a structural fragility that increases downside variance.

7K. Knockout Prediction

R32 knockout — draw at 90' is a real outcome. Full decision tree: 90' → ET → Pens.

Draw Band (R32-4 Finding)

• fav_share = 0.701 → moderate favorite (0.60-0.70 range) → draw = 20-25%
• Used 22% (within band). AUT's gegenpress creates enough transition danger to keep the draw live. But ESP's 0 GA defensive record + AUT's 2.0 GA/game suppress the draw slightly.

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Extra Time (conditional — given draw at 90')

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens)

Advance Probability (unconditional)

Scoreline Distribution (90' only)

Sum: 17+15+13+12+9+8+26 = 100% ✓

Blowout check (F22): AUT plays 4-2-3-1 gegenpress (open shape), NOT 5-4-1 deep block. Schlager has no veteran GK status (>50 caps but no tournament MOTM pedigree). Blowout exclusion does NOT fire. 4+ goal margins (ESP 3-1, 3-0, 4-0+) combined ~22% — within the 15-20% band (slightly over due to AUT's open shape amplifying the margin potential).

Modal Match Path

ESP 2-1 in 90' (17%) — ESP scores first in the 20-40' window (Yamal isolating Laimer or Oyarzabal from a penalty), controls possession through the Rodri-Pedri pivot, adds a second in the 55-70' window (Olmo arriving late or Yamal counter), AUT pulls one back via Sabitzer set-piece or gegenpress turnover (70-80'). ESP sees out 2-1.

8. Who Scores

Spain

Austria

9. Match Flow Projection

Possession projection: ESP 58-62% (possession-dominant, but AUT's gegenpress generates enough turnovers to prevent 65%+).

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied:

• F1 (draw epidemic): Draw band calibrated at 22% (R32-4 tiered band, fav_share 0.60-0.70). Tournament-wide draw rate remains elevated.
• F4a (attack gutted): Checked — ESP wing depth fragility (Williams/Pino OUT) but spine intact. Applied -5pt (NOT the -25-30pt gutting rule). AUT: Baumgartner OUT (pre-tournament), Mwene OUT (Laimer-to-LB shift) — neither is a gutting trigger.
• F4 (hot GK): Schlager (AUT) — reputation only, 6 GA in 3 games. Calibration ×0.25 → negligible. Simón (ESP) — 0 GA but no tournament MOTM awards. No hot-GK factor for either side.
• F7 (referee leniency): Nyberg's career 3.10 Y/match discounted 25% → ~2.3 Y/match. WC actual: 2.33 Y/match (validated). Card-lenient. No extreme-leniency "whistle-swallowed" scenario (Nyberg is not IFFHS-elite tier).
• F10 (star-as-creator): Yamal and Sabitzer modeled as both scorers AND creators. F10 ×0.0 explicit weight not needed — built into probabilities (Yamal assists Oyarzabal = Yamal credited as POM via assist).
• F11 (weather/travel): Neutralized (73°F, canopy). ESP travel penalty -1pt (3,500 km vs. 150 km, domestic).
• F12 (conservation): 0% for both teams (R32 knockout). Empirical ×1.5 = 0.
• F13 (sterile domination): Screen run on ESP (possession-dominant). Does NOT fire: (a) Yamal starts (not benched like MD1), (b) no hot GK on AUT side, (c) Oyarzabal in scoring form (3 goals), (d) no conservation. No flags raised.
• F16 (age-decline): Arnautović (35, bench) — applied implicitly in his 5% scorer probability (below his prime profile). Alaba 33 (not 38+ threshold). No scorer #1 age-decline discount.
• F17 (empirical calibration): Hot GK ×0.25 (Schlager reputation), sterile ×2.0 (not applicable), context ×2.0 (R32 knockout), momentum ×1.75 (ESP unbeaten run), conservation ×1.5 (0%).
• F19 (late-arriving CM): Seiwald at 4% (AUT deep runner). Applicable as AUT may need a late goal from a non-attacker.
• F20 (double-underestimate): Not triggered — no team-level 38+ midfield spine on AUT (Seiwald 27, X.Schlager 26, Laimer 28).
• F22 (blowout): AUT open gegenpress (NOT 5-4-1 deep block) + Schlager no veteran GK status. Exclusion does NOT fire. Weight 4+ margin at ~18%.
• R32-1 (deviation cap): fav_share 0.701 > 0.65 → cap does NOT apply. +8pt deviation justified by tournament team overperformance.
• R32-2 (opp-tier-weighted form): ESP 4.17 wPPG vs AUT 1.17 wPPG — gap reflects ESP's tougher schedule (beat URU T1 at 3× weight).
• R32-3 (CONMEBOL reactive blueprint): AUT is NOT a CONMEBOL team. Their gegenpress is NOT a low-block reactive pattern. Does NOT apply.
• R32-4 (draw band tiering): fav_share 0.701 → 20-25% draw band. Used 22%.

Missing sources: None. All categories covered: scout brief, team news (ESP + AUT), referee profile (Nyberg), lineups (confirmed), weather (NWS same-day), venue (canonical), H2H, group context/bracket, manager temperament. Full injury sweep completed for both teams.

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "esp-vs-aut"
date = "2026-07-02"
kickoff_cest = "21:00"
group = "R32"
venue = "los-angeles"
referee = "nyberg"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
favorite = "Spain"
win = 53
draw = 22
loss = 25

[knockout]
win_et = 48
draw_et = 35
loss_et = 17
pen_win = 55
advance_a = 68
advance_b = 32

[scorelines]
"2-1" = 17
"2-0" = 15
"1-0" = 13
"1-1" = 12
"3-1" = 9
"3-0" = 8

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Yamal", probability = 24 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Sabitzer", probability = 15 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0
finding_13_fires = false
finding_16_age_decline = "Arnautovic"
penalty_band = "5-10%"
projected_xg = 1.7

[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 60
yellow_cards = "2-3"
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "5-10%"

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: ESPN API (confirmed XI), NWS Hawthorne (weather), Marca/Mundo Deportivo/Sport.es (injury reports), AS English (yellow card rules), laola1.at/kicker.at (AUT XI/tactics), Sports Mole/Khel Now (H2H), Transfermarkt via soccergraph.com (squad values), FIFA Match Centre (referee/fixture). Source archive: sources/matches/esp-vs-aut/