Egypt vs. Iran - Consensus Ensemble
2026 World Cup, Group G MD3 | June 26/27, 2026 | Lumen Field, Seattle (OPEN-AIR, mild ~16°C)
⚡ TASK-99: independent resolution | EGY draw-suffices (qualified); IRN MUST WIN
Referee: Szymon Marciniak (POL)
TL;DR
Egypt ~47% / Draw ~31% / Iran ~22%. Modal scoreline: EGY 1-0 / 1-1 Draw (split). Salah #1 (~25%, 1 from 69-goal record). The headline is the ASYMMETRIC STAKES + BEIRANVAND HOT-GK: EGY draw-suffices (qualified, 4pts), IRN must-win (2pts) but CAN'T CREATE (0 WC26 goals from open play, bottom of group on xG/SoT). Beiranvand = WC-leading 13/15 saves (MD2 MOTM vs BEL) → Finding 6 hot-GK + Finding 22 blowout EXCLUSION fire together → draw band elevated to 31%. EGY 2 CBs OUT (Fathy + Abdelmaguid) = defensive weakening (-3pt, NOT gutting). Salah milestone motivation (1 from Hossam Hassan's 69-goal record) = Finding 12 hard rule (plays 80'+, NO conservation). Iran travel eased (2 days vs 1) but still Tijuana base + 11 staff banned. Marciniak 30-40% pen band. 6pt EGY spread (44-50%) = genuine disagreement on whether EGY quality or IRN hot-GK+block dominates.
- Win%: EGY 47% / DRAW 31% / IRN 22% — 6pt spread (44-50%) on EGY magnitude.
- Scoreline: EGY 1-0 / 1-1 Draw split (mm3 EGY 1-0 14%, g4 EGY 1-0 20%, g5 1-1 16%).
- Who Scores: ✅ Salah #1 (~25%, milestone) — 1 from 69-goal record, MOTM MD2. Taremi IRN #1 (~18%, 0G WC drought, disallowed MD2).
- Finding 6 (hot-GK): ✅ Beiranvand — WC-leading 13/15 saves. Draw mechanism live.
- Finding 22 blowout EXCLUSION: ✅ — IRN 5-4-1 + veteran Beiranvand = no blowout.
- Finding 4a: ✅ does NOT fire — 2 CBs OUT is defensive weakening (-3pt), NOT attack gutting.
- Finding 12: ✅ 0% conservation — Salah milestone (plays 80'+) + EGY competitive + IRN must-win.
- Marciniak: 30-40% pen band — WC 2022 final ref, elite pen rate but band not verdict.
Model Comparison (INDEPENDENT)
| Model | EGY | Draw | IRN | Modal | F6 Beiranvand | EGY CBs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | 50% | 30% | 20% | EGY 1-0 (14%) | draw mechanism | -3 to -5pt |
| g4 | 44% | 32% | 24% | EGY 1-0 (20%) | +draw 32% | -3pt |
| g5 | 46% | 31% | 23% | 1-1 (16%) | +blowout exclusion | -2pt |
| Consensus | 47% | 31% | 22% | EGY 1-0 / 1-1 | draw floor | -3pt |
Spread: 6pt EGY (44-50%) + 4pt IRN (20-24%) — mm3 most bullish on EGY (Salah + form); g4 most bullish on IRN (must-win desperation + Beiranvand). Draw tight (30-32%).
Consensus ensemble for EGY-IRN. 3 models resolved INDEPENDENTLY (TASK-99). Full post-event after kickoff. Last updated Jun 26, 2026.