Colombia vs. Switzerland - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, Round of 16 (Match 96) | July 7, 2026 | BC Place, Vancouver

Kickoff: 22:00 CEST (20:00 UTC, 13:00 PDT) | Referee: Iván Barton (El Salvador, CONCACAF)

R16 reward: Winner faces Belgium in QF (BEL defeated USA 4-1 in R16 per sources/matches/bel-vs-usa/post-event/).

TL;DR

Coin-flip R16 with COL slight edge: COL 37% / Draw 27% / SUI 36% → COL 51% advance. WDM anchor is balanced (squad values €250M vs €282M); qualitative factors (form, FIFA rank, yellow-card asymmetry) tilt to COL by a hair.

Prediction: COL 1-0 (17%), COL 2-1 (12%), 1-1 (14%), SUI 1-0 (13%), SUI 2-1 (11%).

• WDM anchor: Slight SUI edge from squad value (€282M vs €250M), but COL wins FIFA rank (#16 vs #19) + opponent-tier-weighted form (drew POR Tier 1 vs SUI's QAT Tier 3) + tournament pedigree (2014 QF). Net fav_share 0.516 → essentially a coin-flip with 28% R16 draw band (R32-4 tiering).
• F11 (heat/weather) = NEUTRALIZED: BC Place roof CLOSED (default for every WC2026 match at Vancouver per venue profile). No weather variable applies.
• F12 (conservation) = 0%: R16 knockout, both must-win. COL's Lorenzo aggressive/full-throttle (validated R32: scored 14', managed lead, no rotation). SUI's Yakin pragmatic but pressed from kickoff vs ALG (validated R32: Embolo 10', didn't sit back).
• F14 (yellow-card asymmetry): SUI Xhaka + Zakaria BOTH on 1Y → one booking = QF ban. COL clean (yellows wiped post-group, R32 vs GHA = 0 bookings). +2pt COL discipline edge — SUI's spine will wind down tackles in 50/50s; Zakaria at RB (unfamiliar position, more 1v1 exposure) is the live risk.
• Sub-impact asymmetry (F19/20): SUI bench is the deepest in the R16 cohort — Manzambi (3 tournament goals, U21 record), Vargas, Sow, Amdouni, Aebischer. 13.3% bench scoring rate (validated MD2 vs BIH: Manzambi 74' immediate, Vargas 84'). COL bench 5.9% (Campaz 90'+9' only). +3pt SUI in any 0-0-at-70' deadlock scenario.
• Referee (Barton, SLV, rule #16 HIGH-PEN archetype): career 0.30-0.50 pens/gm, 0 pens in 4 WC appearances. Pen band 25-30% per rule #15 (POR-DRC validated). Card ceiling 33%-discounted: 3-4 yellows. COL's Díaz/James creator-foul-drawers have a slight edge if pen materializes.
• Who scores: COL — Díaz #1 (22%), Arias #2 (16%), James #3 (12%), Suárez #4 (10%), Sánchez (CB set piece) #5 (6%). SUI — Embolo #1 (22%), Ndoye #2 (17%), Xhaka #3 (9%), Rieder #4 (8%), Manzambi (sub) #5 (6%).

Watch: Can SUI's 100+ cap spine (Xhaka-Freuler-Akanji-Rodriguez) absorb COL's James-vertical supply to Díaz running at Zakaria-at-RB? If SUI's double pivot holds the central channel 0-0 at 70', Yakin's 71' triple-sub (Manzambi-Vargas-Sow) is the documented 0-0 unlock — and SUI has the bench edge.

1. Colombia 🇨🇴 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #16 (CONMEBOL; 2014 QF; first R16 win since 2014)
• Manager: Néstor Lorenzo (Argentine, 60, in role since Jun 2022). Temperament: AGGRESSIVE / FULL-THROTTLE. Presses high, attacks in numbers, plays to win regardless of math (validated R32: COL pushed for the goal, didn't manage possession after taking the lead)
• WC History: 2014 QF (lost to BRA), 2018 R16 (lost to ENG on pens)
• Form: 3W 1D WC2026 group (10 pts), R32 W 1-0 vs GHA. Unbeaten in 4 matches. Opponent-tier-weighted PPG = 3.125 (highest of any CONMEBOL team still alive: drew POR Tier 1, beat DRC Tier 2).
• Base camp: No travel disruption. Pre-tournament in Palm Beach Gardens (FL); relocated Kansas City for R32, Vancouver for R16. 4 days rest since R32.

Tactical Identity (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1)

• High press with fullbacks pushing (Muñoz overlapping RB, Mojica tucking LB). James (#10/free-8) as creator at the tip of midfield; Suárez running off him as the #9; Díaz as the LW focal winger (the team's primary 1v1 threat).
• Press-resistant in possession: COL 91%+ pass accuracy through R32; James the metronome.
• Limitation: Profligacy in front of goal — COL generated 1.03 xG vs DRC + 5 shots from Díaz (none converted, 3 disallowed). Suárez 0 goals in 3 starts; Córdoba/Cucho waiting as #9 sub (R32 Córdoba didn't start, retains Suárez).
• Set-piece danger: James delivery. Sánchez + Lucumí aerial threats.

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

• Strengths: James-Díaz creator axis, Muñoz's overlapping runs, pressing structure.
• Weaknesses: Suárez profligacy (0 goals / 3 starts), yellow-card risk (3 starters on 1Y = Lerma, Lucumí, Mojica), narrow margin tendency (R32 = 1-0 win via set piece, not goal-fest).

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via ESPN API event 760508)

4-3-3: Vargas (GK); Muñoz, D. Sánchez, Lucumí, Mojica; Lerma, Puerta; Arias (RW); James (#10); Díaz (LW); Suárez (CF).
Identical to R32 vs GHA. Lorenzo full alignment.

Bench (creator sub Quintero, #9 Córdoba/Cucho, late sub Campaz)

• Quintero (creator, MD2 assist winner Muñoz)
• Ríos (DM cover, on 1Y himself)
• Campaz (only bench goal — UZB 90'+9')

2. Switzerland 🇨🇭 — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #19 (UEFA; 6th straight WC; Euro 2024 QF)
• Manager: Murat Yakin (Swiss, 51, in role since 2021). Temperament: PRAGMATIC / EXPERIENCED-LED. Builds around 100+ cap spine, doesn't panic.
• WC History: 1954 QF; 1994 R16; 2018 R16 (lost to SWE).
• Form: 2W 1D WC2026 group (7 pts), R32 W 2-0 vs ALG. Unbeaten in 4 matches. Opponent-tier-weighted PPG = 2.75 (drew QAT Tier 3 — easier schedule than COL).
• Base camp: SoFi Stadium area + stayed in Vancouver for R16 (no cross-country flight). 4 days rest.

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3)

• Ball-dominant possession spine (91.5% pass acc MD1, Group B best). Xhaka-Freuler double pivot in 8th start; Embolo as #9 link; Ndoye/Jashari/Rieder front three rotated for matchup.
• Press-resistant in possession but profligate in conversion (26 shots → 1 goal MD1 vs QAT; 0-0 for 73' vs BIH before bench exploded it).
• Set-piece danger: Xhaka delivery, Rodriguez free-kicks, Akanji/Elvedi aerial targets.
• Rotation pattern: 65-80' triple-sub window is the canonical tactic. Manzambi/Vargas/Sow on bench is the disruption package.

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

• Strengths: 100+ cap spine (Xhaka-Freuler-Akanji-Rodriguez), bench quality (Manzambi 3 goals), set-piece aerial threat, defensive discipline.
• Weaknesses: Profligacy (1 goal from 26 shots MD1; 0-0 for 73' vs BIH), Xhaka-Zakaria discipline risk, rotating RzB to Zakaria (out of natural position).

Confirmed XI (ESPN event 760508)

4-2-3-1: Kobel (GK); R. Rodríguez, Akanji, Elvedi, Zakaria (CB→RB); Xhaka, Freuler; Ndoye (RW); Jashari (AM); Rieder (LW); Embolo (CF).
Yakin rotated 3 of the front three + RB from R32 (Manzambi / Vargas / Sow → Jashari / Rieder / Ndoye). Embolo and the double pivot retained.

Bench (the deepest in R16)

• Manzambi (super-sub, 3 tournament goals, U21 WC record = 3rd this century behind Mbappé/Müller)
• Vargas (2 goals as sub + starter)
• Sow (MD3 starter, dropped to bench)
• Widmer, Amdouni, Itten, Okafor, Aebischer

3. Head-to-Head Record

Verdict: No prior competitive meetings. Friendly record unconfirmed in corpus. Treat as coin-flip on H2H basis.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis

F11 FULLY NEUTRALIZED. No heat penalty. No humidity penalty. Both teams at full energy. The only environmental factor is the artificial turf — a marginal technical-team tilt to COL (Lorenzo's possession-dominant system) but immaterial at this level.

5. Referee Analysis — Iván Barton (SLV, CONCACAF)

Per sources/matches/col-vs-sui/referee/01-barton-match-application.md + canonical sources/reference/referees/barton.md.

Archetype match — Rule #16 HIGH-PEN

Barton matches the HIGH-PEN archetype (validated Tantashev/Ma-Ning/Tejera/Kovacs): career 0.30+ pens/gm but variable card control (1Y in 1 WC2026 match vs 5.20 Y/gm career). Rule #16 application:

1. Pen band HIGH — 25-30% chance of ≥1 penalty in this match (validated POR-DRC 0.40-0.45 rate → 0 pens is just the natural variance within a 25-30% band).
2. Card band LOW + WIDE — predict 3-4 yellows total; range 0-6 (rule #16 wide band).
3. Heat-amplified card collapse DOES NOT APPLY — closed roof neutralizes (F11).

Prediction: 3-4 yellows (range 0-6), 0 reds, 25-30% pen chance

Referee card/pen application to this match:

• Both teams are well-disciplined this tournament (COL 0Y in R32 vs GHA, SUI 0Y in R32 vs ALG). Barton is unlikely to over-card either side.
• SUI yellow-card timebomb tension: Xhaka + Zakaria 1Y. They'll wind down tackles. Expect 1-2 SUI yellows (Xhaka tactical foul, Zakaria 1v1 frustration at RB).
• COL yellow-card timebomb tension: Lucumí + Mojica + Lerma 1Y. Conservative dueling. Expect 1-2 COL yellows but no model-breaking intervention.
• Pen chance biases COL slightly: Díaz and James are the tournament's strongest dribble-foul-drawers (Díaz 5 shots vs DRC MD2, drew multiple box contacts). Per rule #15, pen probability 25-30%, with slight COL favor in terms of "who benefits."

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 James vs Xhaka-Freuler Pivot

James has been COL's metronome (R32 winner assist, MD2 Muñoz winner assist). SUI's Xhaka-Freuler double pivot (their 7th start together) is the densest central block in the R16. Whichever wins the central channel dictates possession. If James is contained (Xhaka disciplined tackling, no fouls), SUI's 91.5% pass-acc system thrives and Embolo-Ndoye counters are live. If James turns between the lines, COL's diagonal supply to Díaz-vs-Rodríguez and Arias-vs-Akanji becomes decisive.

6.2 Díaz vs Rodríguez (LB) + Zakaria-at-RB Channel

Díaz is COL's primary 1v1 threat. Rodríguez (33, 100+ caps) is the experienced veteran who can match him physically. Zakaria at RB (not his natural position) is the live channel — out-of-position CB/DM at full-back against a Liverpool-class LW. Zakaria's 1Y + QF-ban risk intensifies this: he won't body-check aggressively, giving Díaz an extra half-yard of room.

6.3 SUI Bench Depth vs COL Bench Quietness

SUI's bench is the deepest in the R16 cohort (Manzambi 3 tournament goals, Vargas 2, Sow rated). 65-80' triple-sub is the Yakin unlock validated in MD2 (Manzambi 74' immediate, Vargas 84') and partially in MD3 (Manzambi 58'). COL's bench only has Campaz scoring (90'+9' UZB) — 5.9% bench impact. If 0-0 at 70', SUI's bench edge is the decisive variable. Lorenzo's Quintero sub pattern is the COL counter-mechanism (MD2 winner assist) but capacity-limited vs SUI's bench.

6.4 Embolo vs Sánchez-Lucumí

Embolo is in his most prolific period (10 in 13 caps, R32 ALG opener). Sánchez-Lucumí are both physical CBs but Lerma-on-1Y + Lucumí-on-1Y sit tackles. If Embolo can engage the central channel (SUI's preferred zone), the Muharemović-DOGSO pattern (MD2 BIH — Embolo drew the red) repeats. If Sánchez-Lucumí sit compact and Lucas Suárez presses from the front, Embolo is muted.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — independent walk)

Step 0 — WDM anchor (full breakdown in §6.6 below)

WDM anchor: SUI 36% / Draw 28% / COL 36% (slight SUI edge from squad value, ~coin-flip).

Step 1 — Group context

R16 knockout: no group math, no MD3 conservation. Both teams came through their groups 1st (COL K1, SUI B1). Both beat weakest-round R32 opponents (GHA, ALG). Both unbeaten. No need-to-win asymmetry — every match is must-win now. Conservation = 0% (validated in Step 2). R16 reward is Belgium (4-1 vs USA), a strong opponent — neither team can rest stars for QF.

Step 2 — Conservation (F12) = 0%

• Both teams validated F12 = 0% in R32:
  • COL: R32 = pushed from kickoff (Arias 14'), didn't manage possession 5-4-1 after the lead, kept pressing for 90'. Lorenzo's aggressive personality overrides any tier-based default.
  • SUI: R32 = Embolo 10', Ndoye 46' (counter), kept pressing at 2-0 with substitutions (Manzambi + Vargas 71' + Amdouni 83'). Yakin pragmatic but did not conservatize a knockout.
• No defending-champion wrinkle (neither qualifies).
• No milestone motivation override (James chasing WC goals but no "all-time record" tier; Xhaka 7th tournament but farewell not record-chasing).
• No MD1/must-win flagging — both teams are unbeaten, both already qualified historically.
• CONCLUSION: F12 = 0% for both teams. No conservation discount.

Step 3 — Weather × style (F11) = NEUTRALIZED

• F11 heat penalty DOES NOT APPLY. Roof CLOSED, no heat. Neutralize.
• R32-5a tier modulator — N/A (no heat to modulate).
• R32-5b age modulator — N/A.
• Substitution risk (F12 sub discount): Suárez has >30% chance of sub by 60' if he doesn't score. This is already baked into Who Scores (Suárez #4 at 10%, below his starting-XI implied rank).

Step 4 — Weather × defense stack (Finding 11 + Finding 6)

• Closed roof = no heat tax on pressing. COL's press at full energy 90'. SUI's double pivot at full energy 90'.
• Hot-GK compound (F4/F17): Neither Kobel (BVB, strong-but-untested-under-sustained-pressure this WC) nor Vargas (Atlas, reliable-but-elite-GK-tier question) is a confirmed "hot" GK this tournament. Reputation-only weighting ×0.25. NO hot-GK draw-flip band for either team.
• Sterile-domination screen (F13/F17): Neither team projects to "ball-dominant + <1.0 xG." COL has won with combined 2.0+ xG (R32 + MD2). SUI has won with 1.5+ xG average. Screen does not fire.
• CONMEBOL reactive blueprint (R32-3): SUI is UEFA, not CONMEBOL. The compound doesn't apply to COL as a favorite. (COL would be subject to it only if SUI played the 5-3-2 low block + veteran GK compound — which SUI does not, they play 4-2-3-1 attacking with Kobel stepping into 50% possession.)
• CONCLUSION: No draw-band inflation from defensive compounds. Draw band stays at WDM-baseline 28%.

Step 5 — Temperament

• COL (Lorenzo): Aggressive, full-throttle. Cannot execute F12 conservation. Presses 90'. Comfortable going 1-0 up.
• SUI (Yakin): Pragmatic, experienced. Comfortable playing reactive counter-punch. R32 was 44% possession — preferred the reactive gameplan. Validated F8 possession flip pattern (R32-5c): SUI will play on the counter even with a lead.
• Game-plan executability: COL has the depth + creativity (James-Muñiz-Díaz) to break a compact block; SUI has the bench (Manzambi-Vargas-Sow) to break a 0-0 deadlock at 70'.

Step 6 — Synthesis

WDM ANCHOR (SUI as WDM-favored by 0.212 score edge):
  COL 36% / Draw 28% / SUI 36%

Adjustments (with empirical multipliers ×2.0 context, ×1.5 conservation, ×1.75 momentum, ×0.25 GK):

  Step 0 — Deviation: flip COL to slight qualitative fav
    +1pt COL (FIFA rank + form combo, WDM captures but underweight):
    +1pt COL (tournament-team overperformance, R32-1 deviation cap):
    -> COL 38% / Draw 28% / SUI 34%

  Step 1 — Group context: 0pt (R16 no group dynamics)

  Step 2 — F12 conservation: 0pt for both (verified)

  Step 3 — F11 weather: 0pt (neutralized)

  Step 4 — Defense stack:
    +0pt (no hot-GK compound, no sterile-domination, no CONMEBOL reactive)
    +2pt COL (F14 yellow-card asymmetry — Xhaka + Zakaria 1Y QF-ban risk vs COL clean slate)
    -> COL 40% / Draw 26% / SUI 34%
       (Draw band conditional: if 0-0 at 40', collapses per R32-5h; if SUI scores first, widens)

  Step 5 — Sub-impact (F19/20):
    +3pt SUI (13.3% vs 5.9% bench scoring rate, Manzambi/Vargas/Sow vs COL Quintero/Córdoba)
    -> COL 37% / Draw 27% / SUI 36%

  Step 6 — Pen-band (Barton 25-30%):
    +1pt COL (Díaz/James creator-foul-drawer slight edge)
    -> COL 38% / Draw 26% / SUI 36%

FINAL (90-minute regulation, weights sum 100%):
  COL WIN 38% / DRAW 26% / SUI WIN 36%

This deviation from WDM = +2pt COL (within the R32-1 cap of +5pt for close matches).
fav_share 0.516 is well below 0.65 → +5pt cap applies → my +2pt deviation is conservative.

Reconciliation with §7K probabilities below.

6.6 WDM Baseline Anchor (Weighted Decision Matrix)

Per §6.6 — replaces subjective naive baselines. All writers share this anchor.

Step A — Raw factors (cited sources)

Step B — Per-factor share (Team A / Total)

squad:     COL 250 / SUI 282 → SUI share 0.530, COL share 0.470
fifa:      COL 84 / SUI 81  → COL share 0.509
form:      COL 3.125 / SUI 2.75 → COL share 3.125/5.875 = 0.532
qualifying: COL 1.7 / SUI 2.0  → COL share 1.7/3.7 = 0.459
gdiff:     COL 14 / SUI 16    → COL share 14/30 = 0.467

Step C — Weighted composite

COL score = 3.0×0.470 + 1.0×0.509 + 1.0×0.532 + 1.0×0.459 + 0.5×0.467
         = 1.410 + 0.509 + 0.532 + 0.459 + 0.234
         = 3.144

SUI score = 6.5 − 3.144 = 3.356

fav_share = 3.356/6.5 = 0.5164  (SUI as WDM-fav by 0.212 score)

Step D — Convert to probabilities (R16 knockout)

fav_baseline (SUI) = 28 + (0.5164 − 0.50) × 90 = 28 + 1.48 = 29.5%
  → clamped to 35% (low-end clamp, fav_share near 0.50)
draw_baseline (R32-4 tier fav_share < 0.60) = 25-30% → use 28%
dog_baseline = 100 − 35 − 28 = 37% (COL)

Step E — WDM ANCHOR (before adjustments)

WDM ANCHOR: COL 37% / Draw 28% / SUI 35%

WDM gives SUI the slight edge from squad value, but the qualitative adjustments (Step 5) reflect that COL has slightly more total factors in its favor (FIFA rank + form). My synthesis lands at COL 38% / Draw 26% / SUI 36% — a +2pt COL deviation from WDM (well within R32-1 deviation cap of +5pt).

Why I deviate from WDM's SUI slight-fav to COL slight-fav:

1. FIFA rank (#16 vs #19, COL ahead) is captured by WDM but undervalued by squad-value weight.
2. Tournament form — opp-tier-weighted (R32-2): COL 3.125 weighted PPG vs SUI 2.75, the gap reflects COL's harder schedule (drew POR Tier 1, SUI drew QAT Tier 3).
3. F14 yellow-card asymmetry — qualitative, not in WDM. SUI's 2 pivotal starters on 1Y → QF ban risk disciplines their tackling late.
4. High-pen ref slight advantage to COL creator-foul-drawers (Díaz/James).

SUI gets credit for sub-impact (not in WDM either, but worth +3pt). Net ~+2pt to COL.

7K. Knockout Prediction (R16 — decision tree)

Per §7K. Draw at 90' is a real outcome (~26%). ET + Pens split explicitly.

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Conditional draw-band collapse (R32-5h): If COL scores first by ~25' (Embolo-style early opener from SUI side, or James free-kick from COL), draw band collapses to <10%. The 26% pre-match draw assumes a 0-0/1-1 trajectory at 40'.

Extra Time (conditional — these sum to 100% given match reached ET)

ET dynamics: 30 min not 90, sub limits exhausted, fresh-legs matter more. SUI's bench quality edge (Manzambi 3 tournament goals, 13.3% bench rate) gives them a slight ET win probability. COL gets credit for the James–creator-in-tight-spaces pattern.

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens reached)

Pen probability is BASE RATE ~10% (38% ET × 50% pens → 4.94% probability of pens reached × ~50% each). Barton's HIGH-PEN archetype adds 25-30% to the in-regulation pen probability, NOT to the shootout probability. Two different questions.

Advance Probability (unconditional — show the math)

Round to whole numbers for clarity (51/49), but the math resolves to ~51.5/48.5.

Scoreline Distribution (90' only — top 5 + implicit Other)

Top 5 sum: 67%. Implied "Other" = 33% (high variance for a coin-flip).

Modal Match Path

"1-0 COL at 90' (17%) → COL wins in regulation → COL faces Belgium in QF."

That's the single most likely end-to-end path (no ET, no pens). Probability of this exact path = 17%.

Second most likely path: "1-1 at 90' (14%) → 2-1 COL in ET (14% × 33% = 4.6%) → COL advances." Locks COL in regulation OR ET in 21-22% of outcomes.

Path-of-least-resistance if 0-0 at 70': "0-0 at 90' (10%) → 0-0 at ET (10% × 38% = 3.8%) → pens (50/50, ~1.9% to each)."

8. Who Scores

Colombia 🇨🇴

Switzerland 🇨🇭

9. Match Flow Projection

Predicted cumulative xG: COL ~1.4 / SUI ~1.1 (combined ~2.5 — low-mid event, NOT a blowout match). Both defenses at full energy pre-60'.

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied:

• F11 (weather) = NEUTRALIZED — closed roof, both teams at full energy.
• F12 (conservation) = 0% — R16 knockout, both must-win, validated by both teams' R32 patterns.
• F14 (yellow-card asymmetry) = +2pt COL — SUI's Xhaka + Zakaria 1Y QF-ban risk creates real defensive discipline.
• F4/F17 (hot GK) = ×0.25 reputation only — neither Kobel nor Vargas is "confirmed form" this WC.
• F13/F17 (sterile domination) = ×2.0 weight, screen does not fire — neither team projects ball-dominant + <1.0 xG.
• F15 (penalty band) = 25-30% — Barton HIGH-PEN archetype, POR-DRC validated.
• F16 (rule #16 HIGH-PEN archetype) = TRIGGERED — pen band high, card band low + wide.
• F19 (low-event late-winner) = weighted — included Jashari (late-arriving midfielder) at 7%, Lerma/Campaz at 2-3%.
• F19 (rotated-in starting midfielder) = SCREEN PARTIAL — Jashari is the rotated-in starting midfielder. Rieder is rotated-in starting winger. Included in Who Scores.
• R32-1 (deviation cap) = respected — my +2pt COL deviation from WDM is well within +5pt cap for fav_share <0.65.
• R32-2 (opp-tier-weighted PPG) = applied — COL's weighted PPG > SUI's, form edge captured.
• R32-3 (CONMEBOL reactive blueprint) = NOT APPLICABLE — SUI is UEFA not CONMEBOL.
• R32-4 (draw band by fav_share) = 25-30% — used 28% baseline (fav_share 0.516 < 0.60 = upper-end band).
• R32-5a (F11 heat tier modulator) = N/A — heat neutralized.
• R32-5b (F11 heat age modulator) = N/A — heat neutralized.
• R32-5c (possession flip cap on KO-fav) = applied — projected possession COL 51% / SUI 49% (no dominant favorite to flip for). Even though COL is "the press" team, R16 favorites don't dominate the ball.
• R32-5d (R32-3 splits) = N/A — CONMEBOL block template doesn't apply.
• R32-5e (blowout up-weight vs pressing) = N/A — neither side is a pressing-favored 3+ margin setup.
• R32-5f (hot-GK = block+GK compound) = applied — no compound here.
• R32-5g (milestone rule) = applied — James 34 not at record-chasing age threshold. Xhaka 7th tournament = farewell, NOT record-chaser per R32-5g.
• R32-5h (draw-band-collapse on early goal) = conditional flag — note in §7K for the 26% pre-match draw band.

Empirical calibration weights applied:

• Hot-GK deltas: ×0.25 (reputation only)
• Sterile-domination deltas: ×2.0 (screen doesn't fire)
• Context adjustments: ×2.0
• Momentum: ×1.75 (form/freshness factors)
• Conservation: ×1.5 (0% conservation)

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "col-vs-sui"
date = "2026-07-07"
kickoff_cest = "22:00"
group = "R16"
venue = "vancouver"
referee = "barton"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
# KNOCKOUT: 90' outcomes only (sum to 100 ±2)
favorite = "Colombia"
win = 38   # COL win in 90'
draw = 26  # 1-1 / 0-0 at 90'
loss = 36  # SUI win in 90'

[knockout]
# ET conditional on 90' draw (sum to 100 given ET reached)
# Pen conditional on pens reached (sum to 100 given pens reached)
win_et = 33          # COL win in ET
draw_et = 38         # draw → pens
loss_et = 29         # SUI win in ET
pen_win = 50         # COL win on pens
advance_a = 51       # COL advance (unconditional)
advance_b = 49       # SUI advance (complement)

[scorelines]
# Top 5 90' scorelines; remainder implied as "Other"
# UNIQUE keys required (suffixed by team to avoid 1-0 collisions)
"1-0_COL" = 17
"1-1" = 14
"1-0_SUI" = 13
"2-1_COL" = 12
"2-1_SUI" = 11

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Díaz", probability = 22 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Embolo", probability = 22 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0     # F12 = 0%, R16 knockout
finding_13_fires = false      # No sterile-domination (both teams project >1.0 xG)
finding_16_age_decline = ""   # No 38+ age-decline at #1 pick
penalty_band = "25-30%"       # Barton HIGH-PEN archetype (rule #16) + F15 POR-DRC validation
projected_xg = 1.4            # COL projected xG (fav)

[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 51     # COL slight press edge, R32-5c caps KO-fav possession
yellow_cards = "3-4"         # 33% tournament discount on Barton career 5.20 Y/gm
red_cards = 0                # Natural R unlikely; no hand-over-mouth "Vini Jr rule" trigger expected
penalty_chance = "25-30%"    # F15 + rule #16 archetype

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: scout/00-scout-brief.md, lineups.md (ESPN confirmed), team-news-col/team-news.md, team-news-sui/team-news.md, referee/01-barton-match-application.md + 02-raw-source-extractions.md, reference/teams/{col,sui}.md, reference/sub-impacts/{col,sui}.md, reference/referees/barton.md, reference/venues/vancouver.md, experiments/squad-values.json. Source archive: sources/matches/col-vs-sui/