Colombia vs. Switzerland — Consensus Ensemble (R16, World Cup 2026)
Tue July 7, 2026 · 22:00 CEST (20:00 UTC / 13:00 PDT) · BC Place, Vancouver (roof CLOSED)
TL;DR
🪙 GENUINE COIN-FLIP R16 — COL advance ~50% (3-agent consensus, razor-thin). 90' leans COL 35% with 29% draw band; modal 1-1. The €250M vs €282M squad gap is negligible. COL has James/Díaz creativity + discipline edge; SUI has Embolo counter + the tournament's best bench (13.3% sub-impact).
(Agent-strength weighting: coin-flip → mm3's draw-band reasoning weighted higher. g5 uniquely leans SUI (53%) — its model-breaker detection flagged SUI's bench as the deciding edge. The 6pt spread (47-53%) is honest disagreement on whether bench or starters win tight KOs.)
- 90' win: COL 35% consensus (mm3 37% / g4 37% / g5 33%) — barely a favorite. Near-identical squad values + both Tier 2 = dead even.
- Draw band: 29% consensus (mm3 27% / g4 28% / g5 31%) — very heavy. Coin-flip + sterile-domination risk (COL's Suárez 0 goals in 4 WC games vs SUI's elite CB pair).
- Advance: COL ~50% (mm3 51% / g4 53% / g5 47%). Spread 6pt — honest disagreement. g5 flips to SUI on bench depth (Manzambi 3 sub-goals).
- Modal scoreline: 1-1 draw (g5 13%) or COL 1-0 (mm3 17% / g4 12%).
- Who Scores: Díaz #1 COL (~18-22%, pace + counter). Embolo #1 SUI (~16-22%, proven KO scorer).
- Watch: The 60' mark — SUI's bench (Manzambi 3 sub-goals, 13.3% rate) is the strongest in R16. If level at 60', SUI's fresh legs tilt it. COL's discipline edge (0 yellows vs SUI's 2) matters in late tackles.
Ensemble Reconciliation
| Agent | Model | 90' COL | 90' Draw | 90' SUI | Advance COL | Modal 90' |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | minimax/MiniMax-M3 | 37% | 27% | 36% | 51% | COL 1-0 (17%) |
| g4 | glm-5-turbo (xhigh) | 37% | 28% | 35% | 53% | 1-1 (13%) |
| g5 | zai/glm-5.2 (xhigh) | 33% | 31% | 36% | 47% | 1-1 (13%) |
| CONSENSUS | — | ~35% | ~29% | ~36% | ~50% | 1-1 / COL 1-0 |
Agent-strength weighting applied. Coin-flip → mm3's draw-band (27%, highest) + g5's model-breaker flag (SUI bench edge) both weighted. g5 is the SUI outlier — its model-breaker detection (best-in-class per calibration) identified SUI's 13.3% sub-impact rate as the deciding edge. This is credible: Manzambi has 3 tournament sub-goals.
Key factors:
- SUI bench (13.3% sub-impact) — best in R16. Manzambi 3 sub-goals, Vargas 1. COL bench: 5.9% (1 goal).
- COL discipline edge — 0 yellows vs SUI's 2 (Xhaka + Zakaria). Late-tackle freedom.
- COL sterile-domination risk — Suárez 0 goals in 4 WC games, 1.70 xG → 0 vs POR. SUI elite CB pair (Akanji-Elvedi).
- Barton HIGH-PEN archetype (rule #16) — pen band 25-30%. 0 pens in 4 WC matches despite high career rate.
- Roof CLOSED → F11 neutralized.
Consensus reconciled by lead (3-agent ensemble, xhigh reasoning on g4/g5). Stage gate passed. Agent-strength: coin-flip → mm3 draw weighted + g5 bench-edge flagged. Spread 6pt (bench vs starters disagreement). Modal: 1-1 / COL 1-0. Watch: 60' sub window + SUI bench cavalry.