Colombia vs. Ghana — Consensus Ensemble (R32, World Cup 2026)
Sat July 4, 2026 · 03:30 CEST (01:30 UTC / Jul 3 20:30 CDT) · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO (OPEN-AIR, >28°C heat)
TL;DR
🇨🇴 Colombia slight favorite — COL advance ~55% (3-agent consensus). 90' leans COL 38% with 28% draw band; modal 1-1 / COL 1-0. Nearly identical squad values (€250M vs €242M) — a genuine coin-flip where COL's tournament form + heat acclimatization edge tip it slightly.
- 90' win: COL 38% consensus (mm3 38% / g4 38% / g5 39%) — slight favorite. The €250M vs €242M squad-value gap is negligible; COL's edge comes from tournament form (2.67 vs 1.67 opponent-tier-weighted PPG) + heat acclimatization (3 games in warm US vs GHA's mild PHL base).
- Draw band: 28% consensus (mm3 31% / g4 25% / g5 28%) — heavy. R32-4 band for fav_share ~0.55 (25-30%). Asare confirmed-form hot-GK + both pragmatic managers + low-event KO push it up.
- Advance: COL ~55% (mm3 55% / g4 52% / g5 59%). Spread 7pt (52-59) — honest disagreement on a coin-flip.
- Modal scoreline: 1-1 draw (mm3 14%) or COL 1-0 (g4 20% / g5 14%). Tight, low-scoring. If GHA's 4-3-3 opens up: COL 2-1.
- Who Scores: James/Díaz #1 COL (~18-22%, James farewell milestone). Semenyo/Ayew #1 GHA (~15-18%, Ayew 122 caps farewell).
- Watch: Luckassen (0-cap CB) at LCB for GHA — the defensive weak link. And Asare — can he produce a 3rd clean sheet (after ENG MOTM)?
Ensemble Reconciliation (spread: 7pt advance — honest coin-flip disagreement)
| Agent | Model | 90' COL | 90' Draw | 90' GHA | Advance COL | Modal 90' scoreline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm3 | MiniMax-M3 | 38% | 31% | 31% | 55% | 1-1 (14%) |
| g4 | glm-5-turbo | 38% | 25% | 37% | 52% | COL 1-0 (20%) |
| g5 | zai/glm-5.2 | 39% | 28% | 33% | 59% | COL 2-1 (14%) |
| CONSENSUS | — | ~38% | ~28% | ~34% | ~55% | 1-1 / COL 1-0 |
A genuine coin-flip between two evenly-matched sides. The squad values are nearly identical (€250M vs €242M). COL's edge is entirely from tournament form (beat UZB + DRC, drew POR T1) + heat acclimatization. GHA's counter-edge: Asare hot-GK + Partey midfield control. The 7pt advance spread flags "slight COL lean, real GHA upset pathway."
Decision graph convergence
All 3 writers converged on:
- WDM anchor ~35-39% COL (fav_share ~0.54-0.58) → slight favorite, within R32-1 deviation cap
- R32-1 deviation cap ACTIVE (fav_share <0.65) — all 3 respected +5pt max
- GHA 4-3-3 attacking (NOT low block) — reactive blueprint does NOT apply. This is the key lineup-checker catch: GHA shifted from the 4-1-4-1 deep block (that drew ENG 0-0) to an open 4-3-3.
- Asare = confirmed-form hot-GK (×0.5-0.6, 2 CS + MOTM vs ENG) — the draw-band driver
- F11 HEAT APPLIES (>28°C KC) — but COL heat-acclimatized (3 warm games); GHA's first hot match. Net: slight COL edge.
- F12 conservation = 0% (both must-win R32, both farewell milestones — James 34, Ayew 34)
Disagreement: draw band (25% vs 31%)
- g4 (25%): lower — COL's form edge + heat acclim = COL 1-0 more likely.
- mm3 (31%): highest — Asare + low-event KO + both pragmatic = draw-heavy.
- Resolution: ~28% consensus. The draw is genuinely live (Asare's 2 CS), but COL's attacking quality (James/Díaz) likely breaks through.
§7K Knockout Tree (consensus)
| Outcome | Probability | Path |
|---|---|---|
| COL win in 90' | ~38% | James + Díaz break through; COL heat-acclim edge tells in 2nd half |
| Draw at 90' | ~28% | Asare 3rd clean sheet + Partey midfield control + both pragmatic → 1-1 → ET |
| GHA win in 90' | ~34% | Semenyo counter + Ayew milestone + Luckassen holds + upset |
| COL advance (total) | ~55% | 38 + 28×0.45 (ET win via depth) + 28×0.45×0.52 (pen win) |
| GHA advance (total) | ~45% | 34 + 28×0.55 + 28×0.55×0.48 (Asare shootout edge) |
Who Scores
Colombia 🇨🇴
| Rank | Player | % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Rodríguez | ~18% | Farewell milestone (34, last WC, 2014 Golden Boot). Creator-finisher. Set-piece. |
| 2 | Luis Díaz | ~15% | LW pace. Counter-attack. Premier League quality. |
| 3 | Jhon Suárez | ~12% | #9 striker. Fit (shoulder). Hold-up + finish. |
| 4 | Jefferson Lerma | ~8% | CM; arriving late. Yellow-card risk (R16 ban). |
| 5 | Daniel Muñoz | ~5% | RB; overlap. |
Ghana 🇬🇭
| Rank | Player | % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antoine Semenyo | ~15% | RW; physical. Bournemouth PL. Main threat with Kudus OUT. |
| 2 | André Ayew | ~12% | Captain, 122 caps farewell. Big-game experience. |
| 3 | Mohammed Kudus | N/A | OUT (entire tournament). Major creative absence. |
| 4 | Thomas Partey | ~8% | CM; long-range. Midfield control. |
| 5 | Ernest Nuamah / Sulemana | ~6% | Supersub pace (Sulemana starts LW). |
James vs Semenyo is the #1 duel. James (farewell, creator) vs Semenyo (physical PL winger). Both are the decisive attackers for their teams. If James scores first, COL controls; if Semenyo counters first, the upset pathway opens.
Model-Breaking Factors (flagged, watch)
| Factor | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| GHA 4-3-3 shift (NOT deep block) | ✅ Caught | Lineup-checker caught the formation change from the ENG 0-0 bus-park. Open shape = goals both ways. Reactive blueprint does NOT apply. |
| Asare confirmed-form hot-GK | ✅ Applied | ×0.5-0.6 (2 CS + MOTM vs ENG). The draw-band driver. 3rd clean sheet is live. |
| Luckassen 0-cap CB | ⚠️ Flagged | In for Opoku (doubtful). Defensive weak link. COL's Díaz will target him. |
| F11 HEAT (>28°C KC) | ✅ Applied | COL heat-acclimatized (3 warm games); GHA's first hot match. Net slight COL edge. |
| Kudus OUT (tournament) | ✅ Assessed | GHA's main creator absent all tournament. Semenyo/Ayew compensate. |
| Both teams full strength (else) | ✅ Confirmed | COL clean (Suárez fit). GHA: Peprah OUT only (plus Kudus pre-tournament). |
| GKs (Vargas / Asare) | ✅ Confirmed | Vargas (reputation). Asare (confirmed-form breakout). |
| Referee Turpin (FRA) | ✅ Profiled | Pen band 25-35%. IFFHS #1 2025. 2-3Y expected. 6 players on yellow = cautious. |
| R16 reward = England | ✅ Context | Tough R16 for either. Both need-to-win. |
| 5 players yellow-caution | ⚠️ Flagged | COL 3 (Lucumí/Mojica/Lerma) + GHA 2 (reset but accumulation starts). Tackle drag. |
Calibration Notes
- fav_share ~0.55 — deviation cap (R32-1) ACTIVE. All 3 respected. This is a genuine coin-flip.
- GHA 4-3-3 shift is the model-breaker that DIDN'T trigger the blueprint. The lineup-checker caught the formation change — if GHA had stayed in the 4-1-4-1 deep block (that drew ENG 0-0), the draw band would be higher. The open 4-3-3 = more goals both ways.
- COL's edge is entirely form + heat-acclim — NOT pedigree (excluded). This is the WDM working as designed.
- Asare confirmed-form hot-GK is the GHA lifeline. ×0.5-0.6 is correct (2 CS + MOTM). Without it, GHA advance would be ~38-40%.
- The 7pt advance spread is honest. mm3/g4 at 52-55% (coin-flip lean COL); g5 at 59% (bullish on COL form). The disagreement is on whether Asare produces a 3rd clean sheet.
Consensus reconciled by lead (3-agent ensemble). Spread 7pt (honest coin-flip disagreement). Modal: 1-1 / COL 1-0 in 90'. Watch: Luckassen 0-cap CB + Asare 3rd clean sheet bid.