Colombia vs. DR Congo - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, Group K, Matchday 2 | June 23/24, 2026 | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, Mexico

Kickoff: 20:00 CDT (02:00 GMT Jun 24 / 04:00 CEST per FIFA schedule) | Referee: Maurizio Mariani (Italy)

TL;DR

Colombia 57% / Draw 32% / DR Congo 11%. Modal scoreline 1-1 (14%) — the POR-DRC draw pattern repeats in milder form. COL win path is most likely a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 (combined 26%). Top scorer picks: Luis Díaz (COL, ~36%), Yoane Wissa (DRC, ~22%). Watch: Mpasi — if the hot-GK repeats, the draw probability creeps above 35%.

• COL is at home in every sense — base camp is Academia AGA (Atlas FC, Zapopan) in the same metro area; 13 days acclimatized to Guadalajara's 1,566 m, climate, and pitch. DRC flew in from sea-level Houston the day before. Home edge is real (+3-5% on top of naive quality gap).
• DRC has already proven this exact draw structure works — same 5-3-2 low block + hot GK (Mpasi) drew 1-1 with POR MD1. They out-created POR on xG (0.82 vs 0.64). The compound is in play again, with the added threat of Wissa as a proven WC scorer.
• F12 conservation applies to COL in modest form — Lorenzo subbed James at 71' and Suárez at 79' MD1 even while leading 3-1. He's a pragmatic, measured manager; expect same sub pattern if COL lead. This shifts ~3% from COL win to draw.
• Weather is neutralized — 23°C at kickoff (below 28°C threshold) and 1,566 m (below the 2,000 m refined altitude threshold). No Finding 11 penalty. Slick late-evening pitch is possible (rain 25-55% rising to 70-100%) but not weather-extreme.
• No model-breaking absences — COL full XI, DRC missing only Bongonda (single absence, NOT gutting; Bakambu/Wissa stay). Vargas (COL) and Mpasi (DRC) both confirmed.
• Referee Mariani = moderate — career 3.95-4.10 Y/g, 0.27-0.30 pen/g. Tournament discount → expect 2.5-3.5 yellows, 0 reds. Penalty band 25-35% (probability band, not verdict — 60-70% of Mariani matches have 0 pens). Luis Díaz carries a scar (red-carded by Mariani in PSG-Bayern UCL Nov 2025), but he's an attacker, not a fouler.
• Sterile-domination screen fires mildly — COL's MD1 was 61% possession with 4 SOT from 15 shots; Suárez is the starting #9 but not an elite 20+ goals/season finisher. The risk of "circulate without penetrate" vs DRC's compact 5-3-2 is real. Adds ~+2% to draw.

Prediction (top 6 scorelines): 1-1 (14%) · COL 2-1 (13%) · COL 1-0 (13%) · COL 2-0 (10%) · COL 3-1 (7%) · 0-0 (7%).

1. Colombia — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 13–15 (Mar/Nov 2025)
• Manager: Néstor Lorenzo (Argentine, 60, in role since Jun 2022). Two-time Copa América finalist (2024, 2025 — both lost to ARG). First WC as manager.
• WC History: Quarterfinals 2014 (best-ever). R16 exit 2018. Missed 2022.
• Form: MD1: W 3-1 vs UZB (Mexico City, ~2,200 m). Pre-WC: W 2-0 vs Saudi Arabia, W 3-1 vs Costa Rica, W 2-1 vs Romania, D 1-1 vs Croatia. Last 5: 4W-1D-0L.
• Base camp: Academia AGA / Atlas FC training center (Zapopan, Guadalajara metro). Arrived June 10 — 13 days acclimatized to venue, altitude (~1,566 m), climate, and pitch.

Tactical Identity (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 hybrid)

• Possession-dominant, defensively organized. MD1: 61.4% possession, 15 shots, 4 SOT — controls the ball but doesn't always convert possession into high-quality chances (the "circulate without penetrate" critique).
• Mid-block press, not extreme high-press (Lorenzo conserves energy by design).
• James Rodríguez operates as a free-floating #10 inside-left; Díaz is the left-wing primary outlet; Arias provides width and pressing on the right.
• Tactical focus for MD2 (per Lorenzo press, AS Colombia): "Lo que teníamos estudiando de Congo en la previa había variado bastante, pero ya con Dinamarca y Portugal marcó un 5-3-2, mantiene dos delanteros importantes arriba y hay que evitar transiciones y contras." — Lorenzo is explicitly wary of DRC's transitions; expects to control possession but wants to avoid being countered.

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Elite attacking talent (Díaz, James, Suárez) — capable of unlocking any defense on individual quality.
• Home advantage is multidimensional — venue city, altitude acclim 13 days, local crowd (large Colombian diaspora in GDL metro), familiar Atlas training facility.
• Mid-block defensive organization is solid; rarely loses shape under pressure.
• Set-piece delivery (Díaz FK for Muñoz goal MD1, corner routines).

Weaknesses:

• Possession ≠ penetration. MD1: 61% possession, 4 SOT from 15 shots. Can circulate without creating.
• Vargas's handling is shaky in wet conditions (spilled MD1 cross). A second error under Tropical Wave 9's late-evening rain is a real risk.
• No elite 20+/season finisher up top. Suárez is functional but not a generational #9. Córdoba is a variant but not a significant upgrade.
• Mojica card-management — could be subbed if booked early; weakens left flank.

Predicted XI (4-3-3)

Vargas; Muñoz, D. Sánchez, Lucumí, Mojica; Puerta, Lerma, Arias; James, Díaz, Suárez.

Likely variants: Ríos for Puerta (CM upgrade); Córdoba for Suárez (#9 variant if Suárez struggles again). No formation change.

2. DR Congo — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: 46 (CAF)
• Manager: Sébastien Desabre (French, 49, in role since 2023 post-AFCON). Low-block specialist, counter-attacking philosophy. Took DRC to AFCON; experienced in tournament football.
• WC History: First WC since 1974 (as Zaire). A 52-year absence broken. MD1 vs POR was their 2nd-ever WC match (1st since 1974).
• Form: MD1: D 1-1 vs POR (Houston, sea level). xG 0.82 vs POR 0.64 (DRC out-created the favorite). Historic first-ever WC goal (Wissa, 45+1'). Pre-WC: D vs Bermuda 2-0, D vs Denmark 0-0, L vs Chile 2-1 (dead rubber during Ebola quarantine), W vs Jamaica 1-0, L vs Algeria 1-0 (AFCON). Unbeaten in competitive matches since the Chile dead rubber.
• Base camp: Houston Sports Park / Houston Training Centre (TX). Travel to MD2 = ~1,500–2,000 km Houston→GDL flight. Arrived in Guadalajara June 23 — day before match (per Fecofa RDC official).

Tactical Identity (5-3-2 / 3-5-2)

• Compact low-block / mid-block. Defensive shape first, transitions second.
• MD1 vs POR: 25% possession, 8 shots, 2 SOT, 0.82 xG. Out-created the favorite on xG despite 25% possession — a counter-attacking masterclass.
• Wing-backs (Wan-Bissaka RWB, Masuaku LWB) provide width; twin #9s (Bakambu + Wissa) provide vertical outlet.
• Mbemba captains from CB; on 🟨 yellow — one more = suspended for MD3 vs UZB. Card-management risk.
• Set-piece threat: Wissa's MD1 goal came from Masuaku's corner (unmarked at back post). Mbemba + Kapuadi are aerial threats.
• Tactical confidence (Desabre press, AS Colombia): "Conocemos a Colombia, hemos estudiado muy bien a esta selección."

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Tournament-system proven — the 5-3-2 frustrated POR (FIFA #5) for long stretches. The defensive identity is reproducible.
• Hot GK — Mpasi is the classic Vozinha/Room archetype. Already a model-breaking factor for one match; could repeat.
• Wissa + Bakambu provide a credible counter-attack outlet. Wissa has pace and finishing; Bakambu has hold-up and aerial.
• AFCON pedigree (Finding 3) — Desabre is an AFCON coach. DRC is not a minnow. The system holds against higher-ranked opponents.
• Set-piece threat — Mbemba + Kapuadi aerial from corners; Wissa's MD1 goal was a corner.

Weaknesses:

• Low block can become passive if COL score early — needs to chase, which is not Desabre's preferred mode.
• Bongonda OUT — removes one of the three principal attackers from DRC's qualifying campaign (Wissa/Bongonda/Bakambu scored 10/15 qualifying goals).
• Mbemba card-management — could be subbed 65-75' if booked, weakening the back-five's aerial presence late.
• Altitude acclim gap — DRC at altitude for ~24 hours vs COL's 13 days. Below the 2,000 m threshold for visible effect (per refined F11), but a small late-game tax is plausible.
• No creative #10 in the starting XI with Bongonda out — Kakuta is bench-only.

Predicted XI (5-3-2 / 3-5-2)

Mpasi; Wan-Bissaka, Kapuadi, Tuanzebe, Mbemba (C), Masuaku; Sadiki (or Mukau), Moutoussamy, E. Kayembe; Bakambu, Wissa.

Likely variants: Mbemba card-managed sub 65-75'; Mayele or Banza as late sub if chasing.

3. Head-to-Head Record

Per Wikipedia Group K: "The two teams have never met before." True blank-slate matchup. No mental edge, no historical baggage. Same status as every other Group K pairup (POR-DRC was also first-ever MD1).

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis — applied quantitative rules

• Altitude (~1,566 m) — Finding 11 refined threshold: Per the Jun 19 calibration update, the threshold for visible altitude pace-tax is ≥2,000 m, not ≥1,500 m. Guadalajara sits at 1,566 m. Apply 0% pace-tax adjustment. The MEX-KOR match at this exact altitude produced no fatigue, no hydration breaks, no late-goal cluster. COL fully acclimatized (13 days) means they have ZERO altitude penalty; DRC's day-before arrival from sea level Houston (13 m → 1,566 m) creates a small late-game tax, but well below the F11 trigger.
• Heat (23°C < 28°C): No Finding 11 heat flag. Conditions favor end-to-end football. No pressing-team degradation at 60'.
• Rain / slick surface (2H risk): Marginal advantage to DRC's counter-pace. Not large enough to model. Possibility of late-game handling errors (Vargas MD1 spill → repeat risk in rain).
• Roof open: Conditions reach players, but the conditions are mild. No weather amplification.

Net environmental adjustment: 0% (weather neutralized).

5. Referee Analysis — Maurizio Mariani (Italy)

Mariani-Colombia history

• Favorable: Copa América 2024 (UEFA-CONMEBOL exchange) — Mariani refereed COL 5-0 PAN; Colombian press frames this as "antecedente favorable."
• Mixed: Luis Díaz red-carded in PSG 2-1 Bayern, UCL MD4, 4 Nov 2025 — Mariani initially yellowed, VAR upgraded to straight red for a "South American double tackle" (per Mats Hummels). Recent scar on both sides.

Predicted match profile

• Yellow cards: 3–4 total. Both teams trended low on cards MD1 (1Y each). Mbemba and Mojica are both on 🟨 (card-management risk). Tournament discount pulls expected count down from Mariani's career 3.95–4.10 to 2.5–3.5 Y.
• Red cards: 0. Mariani rarely sends off (0.13–0.20/g career). Mbemba card-management dampener reduces the DOGSO risk.
• Penalty band: 25–35% chance of ≥1 penalty. Mariani's career 0.27–0.30/g is normal-to-high, but 60–70% of his matches have 0 pens (per FootyMetrics). Series A 2025/26 spiked to 0.40 but WC sample (KSA-URU) was 0 pens. Tournament discount applies to pens too. Colombia is the more likely beneficiary (~18–25% vs ~5–10% DRC).

Likely card candidates

• Mojica (COL) — on 🟨, defends pace of Wissa/Masuaku. Tactical fouls likely. Card-risk profile HIGH.
• Mbemba (DRC) — on 🟨, captain/CB. Desabre may pull if booked early to preserve for MD3.
• Wissa (DRC) — POR fouled him repeatedly (Araujo escaped a red per L'Équipe). Foul-drawing magnet.
• Lerma or Puerta (COL) — tactical fouls if Wissa breaks through.

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 COL possession vs DRC 5-3-2 low block — the central structural tension

COL's identity is possession-dominant (61.4% vs UZB MD1) and DRC's identity is low-block → counter. This is the SAME structural pairing that produced POR 1-1 DRC in MD1 — except COL has better individual attacking quality (Díaz on form, James creative hub) and DRC has the same Mpasi + Wissa threat. Lorenzo explicitly cited the 5-3-2 in his pre-match press. Expect COL to probe patiently (60–62% possession), with Muñoz and Mojica providing width and Arias/James trying to slip Díaz through the channels. DRC will sit compact and wait for transitions through Wissa's pace and Bakambu's hold-up. The decisive question: can COL score first without conceding on the counter? If yes, they likely manage the game (Lorenzo's specialty). If DRC nick first (counter or set piece), COL must chase — and the 5-3-2 becomes harder to break down.

6.2 Mbappé/cold-striker risk — Suárez vs Wissa

Asymmetric finishing profiles. Wissa scored MD1 and is in form; he's the proven WC scorer for DRC. Suárez is COL's starting #9 but was criticized for not burying MD1 chances (he was subbed at 79' as part of Lorenzo's sub rotation, not for ineffectiveness per se). F16 (age-decline) applies to MILESTONE-CHASING stars 38+ — Suárez at 28 is not affected. But F17 (sterile-domination screen, mild flag #4 — no specialist striker in the squad) is a CONCERN: Suárez is a functional but not elite finisher. If Suárez struggles, Lorenzo has Córdoba or Cucho as variants. DRC's Wissa vs COL's Suárez is the single biggest talent-vs-form mismatch favoring the underdog.

6.3 Set pieces — DRC's clearest route to goal

DRC's MD1 goal was a corner (Masuaku delivery, Wissa unmarked at back post). Mbemba + Kapuadi are aerial threats; COL has shown defensive vulnerability from set pieces (Vargas's MD1 handling spill was a corner). With slick conditions possible late, set-piece chaos is live. Always-include CB set-piece scorer per F6 — Mbemba (DRC) ~5%, D. Sánchez / Lucumí (COL) ~5% each.

6.4 Mbemba card-management vs Mojica card-management

Both captains are on 🟨 entering this match. Mbemba is likely card-managed by Desabre (subbed 65-75' if booked, to preserve him for MD3 vs UZB). Mojica may be subbed by Lorenzo for the same reason (MD3 vs POR must-win for 1st place). Net effect: both defenses lose a veteran presence late — and the team that handles the sub better (Lorenzo has the deeper bench; Desabre does not) gains a marginal edge in the final 20'.

6.5 Home advantage — multidimensional

This isn't a symbolic home flag; it's a substantive structural edge:

• Base camp = venue city (Guadalajara, 13 days acclim).
• Crowd: Large Colombian diaspora in GDL metro area; the atmosphere will feel like a home match for COL.
• GK connection: Vargas plays for Atlas FC in Guadalajara — local-hero narrative.
• No travel: DRC flew Houston→GDL the day before.

This is the largest single home-edge in the tournament so far and is reflected in the +5-7% baseline uplift applied in §6.5.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — 6-step, resolved INDEPENDENTLY by mm3)

⚡ Mandatory resolution. Each step below is my independent derivation from doc-1's Findings + the briefs + predictions-summary. I did NOT anchor on any pre-resolved synthesis. Genuine disagreement with sibling writers (g4/g5) is correct ensemble behavior.

Step 1 — Group context (must-win flags, urgency asymmetry):

• Standings: COL 3pts (1-0-0, +2 GD) · POR 1pt · DRC 1pt · UZB 0pts.
• COL's MD2 outcome matrix: Win = 6pts (mathematically qualified; POR/UZB still play but COL controls own destiny). Draw = 4pts (strong position but leaves POR alive). Loss = 3pts (still on top but POR could overtake with a win).
• DRC's MD2 outcome matrix: Win = 4pts (leapfrog scenario possible with 2+ goal swing). Draw = 2pts (MD3 vs UZB must-win either way). Loss = 1pt (essentially out; MD3 becomes "cup final" against AFC debutant UZB).
• Urgency asymmetry: COL has clear WIN incentive but not MUST-WIN panic (4pts on draw keeps them on top). DRC has clear RESULT-FOR-MD3 incentive (avoid losing to keep MD3 manageable). Both teams have skin in the game, but for different reasons. MD2 = least-conservation matchday per F14.
• Output: COL = "urgency to win," not "must-win." DRC = "must-avoid-losing." Sets up possession-dominant favorite vs deep-block underdog — a known draw-producing structural pattern.

Step 2 — Conservation (F12/F14, contextualized):

• COL tier profile: Tier 2 (two-time Copa América finalist, dark horse). NOT Tier 1 (no trophy ambition stated outright; missed 2022). Per F14, Tier 2 contender in a group match gets 5–8% conservation discount — but: (a) MD2 = least-conservation matchday (urgency), (b) COL needs the win (qualification incentive), (c) COL at home (no travel burden), (d) Lorenzo's MD1 sub pattern (James 71', Suárez 79' even at 3-1) is a CONSERVATION tell, but it was about saving legs for MD2 travel, not energy-management per se.
• Net: Apply −3% from COL win% (move to draw) for Lorenzo's pragmatic sub-management instinct. NOT the full 5–8% Tier-1 discount (MD2 least-conservation + win incentive). Not zero either (Lorenzo will not throw the kitchen sink; he manages games).
• DRC: Tier 3 = 0% conservation. Maximum effort, especially given the must-avoid-losing framing.
• Output: COL −3% / Draw +3% / DRC 0%.

Step 3 — Weather × style (F11):

• Temp 23°C at kickoff → below the 28°C F11 threshold → NO heat flag. Both teams' press styles unaffected.
• Altitude 1,566 m → below the refined 2,000 m F11 threshold (per Jun 19 calibration update) → NO altitude pace-tax.
• Roof open → conditions reach players, but conditions are mild (no heat, no rain at kickoff).
• Slick surface late (rain 70–100% in late window) → marginal advantage to DRC's transition pace; mild disadvantage to COL's possession build-up. Not large enough to model.
• Output: 0% weather adjustment. Neutralized.

Step 4 — Weather × defense stack:

• The classic "heat + low block + hot GK = DRAW" compound does NOT fire (no heat).
• BUT the "low block + hot GK + possession favorite" compound DOES fire — independent of weather.
  • DRC's 5-3-2 is a textbook low block (compact, organized, denies central penetration).
  • Mpasi is the MD1 hot-GK hero (multiple saves vs POR, the Vozinha/Room archetype per F4).
  • COL is a possession-dominant favorite with a tendency toward "circulate without penetrate" (F17 concern).
  • This is the SAME compound that fired in POR-DRC (1-1 draw). The "POR-DRC draw" pattern is structurally identical.
• F4 hot-GK probability: 15–20% chance Mpasi's performance flips the result toward draw.
• Output: Apply −6% from COL win% / +6% to draw for the low-block + hot-GK draw compound.

Step 5 — Temperament (coach executability + game plan):

• Lorenzo (COL): Pragmatic / measured. Two Copa América finals. Defensively organized. High executability — but the COL possession-dominant system vs a low block can become sterile domination (F17). Suárez is functional but not elite. Mild F17 flag (#4 — Suárez not 20+/season finisher).
• Desabre (DRC): Low-block specialist. AFCON-experienced (Finding 3 applies — DRC is not a minnow). High executability — proven vs POR MD1. Mbemba card-management risk (likely sub 65–75') weakens DRC's late defensive intensity.
• DRC's Bongonda OUT = single absence, NOT gutting (front two Bakambu/Wissa stay; system unchanged). F13 does NOT fire.
• COL's full XI = no absences, no F13 trigger.
• Output: Apply −2% from COL win% / +2% to draw for mild F17 sterile-domination concern. Apply +1% to draw / −1% from DRC win% for Mbemba card-management risk dampening DRC's late intensity. Net: −2% COL win / +3% draw / −1% DRC.

Step 6 — Synthesis — show the math:

Naive quality-gap baseline (FIFA 13 vs 46, plus squad quality differential):

• COL ~65% / Draw ~21% / DRC ~14%

Adjustments applied (with reasoning):

Final probabilities: COL 57% / Draw 32% / DRC 11% — sums to 100%.

Reconciliation note: Draw at 32% sits in the upper half of the 22–30% baseline band (Finding 1) because the structural draw compound (low block + hot GK + possession-favorite-with-sterile-risk) is firing hard. The 45% tournament-wide draw rate is not the floor — for THIS matchup, ~30% is the right calibration. COL at 57% reflects: (a) home advantage (substantial — +5% over POR-DRC's POR baseline), (b) better attacking quality than POR's current Ronaldo-decline version, (c) DRC missing Bongonda. The 9-point drop from naive 65% reflects: hot-GK draw compound (6), Lorenzo conservation (3), mild sterile-domination (2) offset by possession-flip recovery (2) and AFCON-pedigree draw (1).

7. Scoreline Prediction

Scenario Distribution (top 9 + Other; sums to ~100%)

Top 5 sum: 57%. Top 9 + Other: 100%.

Win Probability Summary (naive → adjusted math)

8. Who Scores

Colombia

DR Congo

9. Match Flow Projection

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied (in order of impact on this match):

• Finding 1 — Draw epidemic (22–30% baseline): Final draw at 32% sits in upper half of band because structural draw compound fires hard. Tournament-wide ~45% draw rate not the floor for THIS matchup.
• Finding 3 — Continental pedigree: AFCON-experienced Desabre + DRC just held POR. Not a minnow. +1% to draw.
• Finding 4 — Hot GK (15–20% flips result): Mpasi = hot GK hero (MD1). Applied as −6% COL win / +6% draw compound.
• Finding 6 — CB set-piece scoring: Mbemba (DRC) ~6%, D. Sánchez / Lucumí (COL) ~5%/3%. Always included in Who Scores.
• Finding 8 — Possession flip: COL likely more control than POR had. +2% to COL win.
• Finding 11 — Weather/altitude/travel:
  • 23°C < 28°C threshold → no heat penalty.
  • 1,566 m < 2,000 m refined threshold → no altitude penalty.
  • DRC day-before flight from sea level → −1% to DRC (modest).
• Finding 12 (F14) — Tournament Energy Management:
  • COL = Tier 2 + pragmatic Lorenzo + MD2 least-conservation = −3% COL win / +3% draw.
  • DRC = Tier 3 = 0% conservation.
  • Defending-champion rule N/A (COL not defending).
  • Milestone motivation applies to James (sub management NOT applied to playing time).
• Finding 13 — Attack gutted TRIGGER: Does NOT fire for either team. COL full XI; DRC single absence (Bongonda) not gutting (front two Bakambu/Wissa stay).
• Finding 15 — Penalty band: 25–35% chance of ≥1 pen (Mariani career 0.27–0.30/g; tournament discount; 60–70% of matches have 0 pens). NOT a verdict.
• Finding 16 — Age-decline: Does NOT apply to Suárez (28, not 38+). F16 milestone motivation: James plays 90.
• Finding 17 — Sterile domination screen: MILD fires. COL's "circulate without penetrate" pattern (MD1: 61% possession, 4 SOT/15 shots) + Suárez not elite #9 = mild flag. +2% to draw.
• Finding 19 — Low-event late-winner archetype: Includes rotated-in starting midfielder (Sadiki/Mukau ~3%) + late-arriving CM (Moutoussamy ~3%). Match is not pure coin-flip but the DRC scoring mix includes low-event late-winner candidates.
• Finding 22 — Blowout Mode A/D/E: FIRES MILDLY. COL is a tournament team (Copa América finalist x2; F22 tournament-team uplift applies to "improve game-to-game"); DRC missing Bongonda is single absence (NOT full gutting); Mode E (tournament-team depth absorbs creative gutting) gives COL 3-0 at ~4% and 3-1 at ~7%. NOT a heavy blowout call.
• Referee tournament discount (F7-equivalent): 20–25% on cards → expect 2.5–3.5 Y. 0 reds. Pen band 25–35% (probability, not verdict). Leniency applies to cards; pens follow independent path (F7 validation CZE-RSA Jun 18). VAR bypasses leniency (F7 validation CAN-QAT Jun 19) — but the KSA-URU MD1 precedent suggests Mariani is VAR-cooperative, not VAR-overruled.

Findings NOT applied (with reason):

• F11 heat penalty (above 28°C) — temp 23°C, below threshold.
• F11 altitude penalty (above 2,000m) — 1,566m, below refined threshold.
• F4a attack gutted (25–30pt downgrade) — does NOT fire (no team meets 2+ of {creator, striker, GK} lost).
• F13 gutting for DRC — Bongonda is a single absence (F13 requires 2+).
• F12 defending-champion reduce — COL not defending.
• F12 milestone motivation applies to playing time only (James), not scoring probability (he's primarily a creator).
• F15 pen verdict — present as 25–35% band only.

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "col-vs-drc"
date = "2026-06-23"
kickoff_cest = "04:00"
group = "K"
venue = "guadalajara"
referee = "mariani"

[win_probability]
favorite = "Colombia"
win = 57
draw = 32
loss = 11

[scorelines]
"1-1" = 14
"2-1" = 13      # Colombia 2-1
"1-0" = 13      # Colombia 1-0
"2-0" = 10      # Colombia 2-0
"3-1" = 7       # Colombia 3-1
"0-0" = 7
"2-1" = 5       # DR Congo 2-1
"3-0" = 4       # Colombia 3-0
"1-0" = 4       # DR Congo 1-0

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Díaz", probability = 36 }
team_a_2 = { player = "Suárez", probability = 14 }
team_a_3 = { player = "James", probability = 10 }
team_a_4 = { player = "Muñoz", probability = 8 }
team_a_5 = { player = "Córdoba", probability = 6 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Wissa", probability = 22 }
team_b_2 = { player = "Bakambu", probability = 12 }
team_b_3 = { player = "Mbemba", probability = 6 }
team_b_4 = { player = "Kakuta", probability = 4 }
team_b_5 = { player = "Masuaku", probability = 4 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 3      # 3 pts applied to COL win (Lorenzo pragmatic, MD2 sub pattern)
finding_13_fires = false       # attack gutted trigger does NOT fire (single absences only)
finding_16_age_decline = ""    # no 38+ milestone-chasing stars apply (Suárez 28; Bakambu 35 not milestone)
penalty_band = "25-35%"        # Mariani career 0.27-0.30/g, tournament discount applied
projected_xg = 1.7            # COL projected xG vs DRC low block; below naive quality gap due to circulate-without-penetrate pattern

[predicted_stats]
# Predicted match stats (FINAL — not halftime)
favorite_possession = 60       # COL projected possession (vs naive 65%; DRC low block + transition holds some ball)
yellow_cards = "3-4"           # Mariani career 3.95-4.10/g → tournament-discounted 2.5-3.5; both teams' MD1 was 1Y each, both have yellow-watch players
red_cards = 0                  # Mariani rarely sends off (0.13-0.20/g career); Mbemba card-management dampener
penalty_chance = "25-35%"      # Mariani 0.27-0.30/g; 60-70% of matches have 0 pens (band, not verdict)

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: sources/matches/col-vs-drc/{scout,team-news-col,team-news-drc,referee}/ + sources/reference/{teams,referees,venues}/ + post-event reviews (uzb-vs-col, por-vs-drc). Source archive: sources/matches/col-vs-drc/.
Decision graph (§6.5) resolved INDEPENDENTLY per TASK-99. No lead-provided synthesis anchor.