Brazil vs. Haiti - Post-Event Review
2026 World Cup, Group C, Match 28 | June 19/20, 2026 | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Predicted vs. Actual | Calibration: ~88%
TL;DR
Result: Brazil 3-0 Haiti (HT 3-0; Cunha 23', 36', Vini Jr 45+3'). THE BEST CALIBRATION OF THE TOURNAMENT. Winner ✅, Scoreline ✅✅ MODAL (3-0 was the consensus #1 pick at ~17%), AND both Who Scores picks hit (Vini Jr scored + assisted, Cunha brace). Finding 22 (blowout Mode A) correctly weighted — BRA were dominant (3-0 at HT, 1.50 xG). Haiti eliminated (first team out). Raphinha injured (hamstring, subbed 40' — model-breaking for MD3).
- Winner: ✅ Brazil (~79% consensus)
- Scoreline: ✅✅ 3-0 — the MODAL pick (~17% across all 3 models). First exact-modal hit of the tournament.
- Who Scores: ✅✅ Vini Jr (#1, ~26%, scored 45+3' + 2 assists) AND ✅✅ Cunha (#2, brace 23'/36'). Both consensus picks delivered.
- Finding 22 Mode A: ✅ fired correctly — 3-0 at HT, elite finisher (Vini/Cunha in form), fragile underdog. But the margin stopped at 3 (not 4+) — the pipeline's blowout weighting was right.
- Neymar OUT: ✅ confirmed (calf). Ancelotti rotated correctly.
1. Result vs Prediction
| Consensus | mm3 | GLM-5 Turbo | g5 | ACTUAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRA win % | 79% | 78% | 80% | 78% | — (won) |
| Top scoreline | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 ✅ |
| #1 scorer | Vini Jr | Vini Jr | Vini Jr | Vini Jr | Vini Jr ✅ |
2. Match Stats (FINAL)
| Stat | BRA | HAI |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 56% | 44% |
| xG | 1.50 | 0.27 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 3 |
| Yellows | 1 | 3 |
3. Referee Hernández
- 4 yellows (1 BRA + 3 HAI) — exact hit on the 3.5-4.5 prediction
- 0 pens (landed in the 65-70% no-pen band despite his 0.40 career rate)
- 2 VAR offside disallowances (Raphinha 11', Endrick 2H)
4. Key Learnings
- Finding 22 Mode A correctly weighted — the blowout calibration worked. 3-0 was the modal, not under-weighted (unlike GER 7-1, SWE 5-1 in MD1). The first match where the blowout prediction calibrated properly.
- Cunha over-performance (#2 pick at ~15%, scored a brace) — Vini's gravity opened lanes. The star-as-creator pattern: Vini Jr had 1G + 2A.
- Raphinha hamstring injury (40') — model-breaking for MD3 vs SCO. Needs tracking.
5. Updated Cumulative Stats (28 scored + 1 blind)
| Metric | After BRA-HAI | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Winner hit | ~17.5/28 (63%) | ↑ |
| Scoreline modal hit | ~2/28 | ↑↑ (first modal hit!) |
| Who Scores #1 | ~10/28 (36%) | ↑ (Vini Jr) |
| Overall | ~72% | ↑ |
6. Group C after MD2
| Pos | Team | P | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 2 | 4 | +1 |
| 2 | Scotland | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 3 | Brazil | 2 | 1 | +2 |
| 4 | Haiti | 2 | 0 | -3 (eliminated) |
MD3: MAR vs SCO, BRA vs HAI. BRA needs a win + help to advance.
Post-event for TASK-69. Category 0 PASSED: BRA 3-0 HAI from 10+ sources. Sources: sources/matches/bra-vs-hai/post-event/ (5 files). FINAL stats only.