Belgium vs. Senegal - Pure Football Analysis (MiniMax-M3)

2026 World Cup, R32 (Match 82) | Wed July 1, 2026 | Lumen Field, Seattle WA

Kickoff: 22:00 CEST / 20:00 UTC / 13:00 PDT | Referee: Saíd Martínez (HON, CONCACAF)

TL;DR

Belgium 1-0 (14%) — BEL advance 58% / Draw at 90' 22% / SEN advance 42%. Modal scoreline BEL 1-0; runner-up 1-1; BEL 2-1 (De Bruyne orchestrating) at 13%.

• WDM anchor fav_share 0.632 (BEL €549M vs SEN €212M, FIFA 9 vs ~19, Tier-2 weight-1 form/qualifying ~equal). Baseline 40% / 22% / 38% before adjustments.
• Travel asymmetry is the swing factor: BEL has been in Seattle 17 days and played MD1 at Lumen Field; SEN flew 4,000 km from NJ with a 3-hour time-zone shift and only 2-3 days recovery. Net +3 to BEL after tactical adjustments.
• Senegal's GK change is already digested (NOT a fresh flag): Mendy OUT since MD2, Diaw clean sheet MD3 vs IRQ. No model-break for the R32 itself.
• SEN defensive-error pattern is real: visible in both group losses (1-3 FRA, 2-3 NOR). Belgium's structured 4-2-3-1 with De Bruyne + Doku + Trossard creates the exact transition chaos SEN's high line is vulnerable to.
• Who Scores: BEL — De Bruyne 25% (primary creator + free-kick danger), Trossard 22% (MD3 brace), Doku 18% (ceiling-mode starter), Lukaku 10% as sub. SEN — Sarr 30% (3 goals in 3 games, HOTTEST player on pitch), Ndiaye 15%, Mané 12%, P. Gueye 12%.
• Referee: Martínez card-strict by career (4.24 Y/gm) but tournament-lenient (2.5 Y/gm at WC26). Discounted projection 3-4 yellows, 0 reds, ~35% pen band (NOT a verdict).
• Watch: Doku vs Diatta 1v1. If Doku gets past Diatta repeatedly, Belgium's transition attack unlocks and BEL 1-0/2-1 win probability climbs. If Diatta contains him, Senegal can sit and counter Sarr (Modal upset path).

1. Belgium — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Rank: #9 (UEFA)
• Manager: Rudi Garcia (62, French; ex-Lille/Ligue 1 winner, Roma, Marseille, Lyon, Al-Nassr, Napoli; named Belgium coach Jan 2025)
• WC History: 2022 group stage; 2018 semifinal; 2014 QF; golden generation era now widely seen as "over"
• Form (WC26 group): 1-2-0 — 1-1 vs EGY (MD1), 0-0 vs IRN (MD2), 5-1 vs NZL (MD3). Topped Group G on GD.
• Base camp: Sounders' Longacres Performance Center, Renton WA (~10 mi from Lumen Field; 17+ days in Seattle)

Tactical Identity (4-2-3-1 / quasi-4-3-3)

• Double-pivot (Tielemans + Vanaken) with De Bruyne as the offensive engine. Tielemans captain, Vanaken chosen as conservative "don't lose it" pivot over Raskin/Onana (Garcia's R32 knockout selection).
• Creator wingers (Doku LW + Trossard RW) behind De Ketelaere as CF. Doku STARTS for the first time since recovering from respiratory + London trip — this is the attacking-ceiling mode.
• Validated weakness: defensive transitions and 1st-half intensity (BEL-EGY MD1: outfought first half, 0 shots on target at HT).

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

• Strengths: De Bruyne at the hub, Doku 1v1, Trossard in form, Courtois big-game pedigree (CL pedigree for pens), Lukaku plan-B reference on bench (6 WC goals all-time, BEL's top WC scorer).
• Weaknesses: Slow first halves, Ngoy DOGSO red MD2 (served), Vanaken conservative pivot reduces vertical passing, Lukaku waste pattern (1 goal in 86 min group action).

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED via ESPN API + The Athletic live blog, T-50)

Courtois; Castagne, Mechele, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans (c), Vanaken; Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku; De Ketelaere.

2. Senegal — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Rank: ~#19 (CAF) — AFCON 2025 winners
• Manager: Pape Thiaw (44, Senegalese; signed contract eve of MD2 after Feb-Jun 2026 saga; aggressive-attacking style, 3-4-3 background)
• WC History: 2022 quarterfinalists; AFCON 2025 winners
• Form (WC26 group): 1-2-0 — 1-3 vs FRA (MD1), 2-3 vs NOR (MD2), 5-0 vs IRQ (MD3). 3rd in Group I, qualified as 8th-best 3rd-place team.
• Base camp: Rutgers University, New Brunswick NJ (Senegal flew 4,000 km Toronto → Seattle 2-3 days before kickoff)

Tactical Identity (4-3-3 R32 shape-flip from MD3 4-2-3-1)

• R32 shape change: 4-3-3 with Sarr as pure CF (vs MD3's Mbaye false-9). Ndiaye RW, Mané LW, Sarr CF.
• Midfield is more combative than MD3: Pape Gueye returns (2-goal sub vs IRQ) to join I. Gueye + Diarra. Two-ball-winner structure to shadow KDB.
• Defensive errors visible: Mendy error + defensive shape breakdown on goals in both FRA + NOR losses.

Key Players

Strengths / Weaknesses

• Strengths: Sarr hot streak (4 goals total WC, SEN's all-time WC top scorer); pace up top (Mané + Sarr + Ndiaye + Jackson off bench); AFCON pedigree.
• Weaknesses: GK Diaw untested at elite level (Le Havre); defensive errors pattern; camp chaos residual (SI: food complaints + unpaid bonuses persist); long cross-country travel.

Predicted XI (CONFIRMED)

Diaw; Diatta, Ciss, Niakhaté, Jakobs; I. Gueye, Diarra, P. Gueye; Ndiaye, Sarr, Mané.

3. Head-to-Head Record

H2H is not a useful predictor for this match — there is literally no data. Belgium's WC record vs African teams is W3 D2 L1 (the L being 2022 MD3 0-2 vs already-qualified Morocco, dead-rubber context). Senegal is a far stronger opponent than Morocco 2022.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Travel Asymmetry (the real environmental factor)

The temperature is mild (20°C) and within both teams' operating range (BEL = temperate, SEN = tropical but not heat-stressed today). The bigger environmental factor is the logistical travel drag on Senegal — pure logistics, not climate.

Impact Analysis

• F11 weather (heat): NEUTRAL — 20°C is well below the 28°C threshold. No degradation to either pressing or transition teams.
• F11 travel (intercontinental): APPLIES to SEN. 4,000 km + 3-hour TZ + only 2-3 days recovery = real drag. −3 to −5pt off SEN baseline.
• F11 base camp: APPLIES to SEN. Resolved at MD3 (camp chaos defused, contract signed eve of MD2), but residual food + bonus complaints persist per SI/Sport News Africa. ~−1pt to SEN.
• Roof status (neutralization check): N/A — open-air but weather is favorable anyway. Roof wouldn't change anything today.

5. Referee Analysis

Saíd Martínez (Honduras, CONCACAF) — Match-Specific Application

Application to BEL-SEN

Predicted: 3-4 yellows, 0 reds, ~35% penalty band.

• Card profile: Tournament leniency is holding (2.5 Y/gm WC26 vs 4.24 career). Expect 3-4 yellows in BEL-SEN. Likely candidates: Diarra/P. Gueye/I. Gueye (combative SEN midfield); Tielemans/Vanaken (positional fouls to break counter); Castagne/Meunier defensive stops.
• Red profile: Very unlikely (0 in 8 prior WC26 matches he ran). The only red scenario is a DOGSO on the counter (Sarr through) — a long-shot DOGSO, not a tactical foul.
• Penalty band: ~35% (30-40% range). Martínez is non-interventionist by WC26 form (declined ENG-GHA pen). Career pen rate is moderate. DO NOT treat as a verdict. Likely candidates: Tielemans/Habib Diarra tactical fouls in the box; Theate on Sarr in transition.
• VAR bypass risk: Lenient on-field ≠ no VAR interventions (validated CAN-QAT Jun 19, Garay). Martínez's VAR crew is TBD but CONCACAF VARs have shown willingness to intervene. Model ≥1 VAR-decisive intervention at ~30-35% in this match.

Crew

• AR1: Walter López (HON) — Martínez's standing WC26 crew
• AR2: Christian Ramírez (HON)
• 4th Official: Andrés Rojas (COL)
• VAR: TBD by FIFA

Confederation Sanity

• Martínez: CONCACAF / BEL: UEFA / SEN: CAF — neutral assignment, no confederation sympathy. Faint structural tilt to BEL via "let play flow" (Martínez declined the ENG-GHA pen for England, allowed the QAT-SUI pen against Qatar).

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 Theate-Mechele vs Sarr

Sarr has scored 3 goals in 3 games (all from inside the box, predatory instincts). Theate-Mechele is the structured, slightly-slow CB pairing (Ngoy back from suspension but Garcia kept Theate). If Sarr gets service from Ndiaye/Mané inside the box, BEL's CB pair will need to be at their best. Single most important duel of the match.

6.2 Idrissa Gueye + Pape Gueye vs De Bruyne

Two-man shadow on KDB could disrupt Belgium's attacking flow. If they can limit KDB's supply, the creative burden shifts to Doku-Trossard-De Ketelaere (less proven as a creative unit). Validated pattern: I. Gueye shadow has historically limited world-class creators in big games (cf. Kimmich vs Modrić in WC22 group stage).

6.3 Krépin Diatta vs Jérémy Doku

Diatta is SEN's best 1-v-1 defender vs pace. If Diatta contains Doku, Senegal's compact block stays solid; if Doku gets past him repeatedly, SEN's right side is exposed to Trossard/De Bruyne cutbacks. Watch metric: completed dribbles by Doku. Above 4 = Belgium ascend; below 2 = Senegal ascend.

6.4 Set-Piece Conversion (BEL CBs vs SEN CBs)

Both teams have aerial CB threats (Mechele/Theate for BEL; Ciss/Niakhaté for SEN). Set pieces are a likely source of goals in a tight knockout. Estimated 30-40% chance the decisive goal is a set piece (corner or free kick). Include CBs as ~3-5% Who Scores options.

6.5 Counter Transition Battle

SEN's 4-3-3 with Sarr as pure CF + Ndiaye/Mané as wide forwards is an open attacking shape. Against a transitioning De Bruyne + Doku, this is a high-variance matchup. Whichever defense handles transitions better wins. F22 (Blowout) vs F19 (Low-event late-winner) is the structural tension here — I'll model both.

6.5. Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — walked independently)

Each step resolved from doc-1 Findings + the briefs + predictions-summary. Reasoning shown explicitly per step. My independent resolution IS the analytical value.

Step 0 — Compute the WDM Anchor (MANDATORY)

fav_share = 4.108 / 6.500 = 0.632 (BEL)

fav_baseline = 28 + (0.632 − 0.50) × 90 = 28 + 11.88 = 39.88% → ~40%
draw_baseline = 22% (R32-4: fav_share 0.60-0.70 → draw band 20-25%, midpoint)
sen_baseline = 100 − 40 − 22 = 38%

WDM ANCHOR: BEL 40% / Draw 22% / SEN 38%

⚠️ Deviation cap check (R32-1): fav_share = 0.632 < 0.65, so my total positive deviation to BEL is capped at +5pt. I will NOT add "KO experience" or "tournament pedigree" reasoning on top.

Step 1 — Group Context

• Matchday: R32 — knockout. No conservation possible. Both teams must-win.
• Group math: BEL top of G, SEN 3rd in I (qualified as 8th-best 3rd). Both earned their slot differently — Belgium via defensive solidity, Senegal via 5-0 finish with 11v10 vs eliminated Iraq. No asymmetry in need-to-win.
• R16 reward: Winner plays USA or BIH (also in Seattle). Belgium stays in Seattle if they win (no travel). Senegal stays in Seattle too — same reward, neutral scheduling.
• Yellow card accumulation: Cards wiped at end of group stage (FIFA 2026 rule, confirmed AS USA/GiveMeSport). Castagne's MD1 yellow and De Cuyper's MD1 yellow are now irrelevant.
• Urgency asymmetry: NEUTRAL. Both must-win, both want-it. No adjustment.

Step 1 output: 0pt adjustment. Both teams have identical knockout urgency.

Step 2 — Conservation (Finding 12)

• Tier: BEL = Tier 2 (per canonical profile — FIFA #9, "golden gen era over"). SEN = Tier 2 (AFCON 2025 winners). Neither is Tier 1 contender with rotation flexibility.
• Manager personality: Garcia = pragmatic-cautious (Roma/Lyon/Al-Nassr veteran). Thiaw = aggressive-attacking. Garcia might conserve in a group context, but this is knockout — no conservation possible.
• Milestone motivation: De Bruyne chasing tournament-creator records. Lukaku is BEL's all-time WC top scorer (6). Sarr is SEN's all-time WC top scorer (4, tied Papa Bouba Diop 2002). Milestone motivation = NO conservation (hard rule from doc-1 F12).
• Knockout = 0% conservation by definition (no future group matches to manage).

Step 2 output: 0pt conservation discount.

Step 3 — Weather × Style (Finding 11)

• Weather: 20°C, partly sunny, 0% PoP, SSW 5-7 mph. Below 28°C threshold. No heat penalty to either pressing or transition teams.
• Roof: OPEN-AIR — but conditions are favorable, so no neutralization needed.
• Belgium's style: Tempo-controlled possession + selective pressing, not Bielsa-style high press. Not vulnerable to heat in this configuration.
• Senegal's style: Direct counter-attack + set-piece threat. Not a pressing team. Not vulnerable to heat in this configuration.

Step 3 output: 0pt F11 weather penalty. No adjustment.

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack

• Heat + low block + hot GK = DRAW (F11 compound). NOT APPLICABLE today (no heat, SEN plays open 4-3-3, SEN GK Diaw untested).
• SEN plays 4-3-3 ATTACKING (not a low block). Diatta/Ciss/Niakhaté/Jakobs are an organized back four but the front three commits. This is a transition-vulnerable setup, NOT a sterile-domination setup.
• No F13 sterile-domination flag — neither team is the kind of ball-dominant side that holds possession without creating. Belgium might dominate possession, but with De Bruyne + Doku + Trossard, they'll create.

Step 4 output: 0pt sterile-domination penalty. No adjustment.

Step 5 — Temperament

• Garcia (BEL): Disciplined, structured, "pragmatic." Bel-NZL MD3 was a confident 5-1 win; BEL-IRN MD2 was a 0-0 after a red card but still kept clean sheet; BEL-EGY MD1 was outfought first half but improved after HT. Garcia is the more disciplined tactician.
• Thiaw (SEN): Aggressive-attacking. Made bold R32 selection choices (4-3-3 shape flip, Ciss over Seck, P. Gueye over Camara, Ndiaye over Mbaye). His team has shown chaotic defensive errors in both losses (FRA + NOR) but also a confident 5-0 (with 11v10 advantage) vs Iraq. Thiaw is more volatile.
• Discipline edge: +1pt to BEL (Garcia's structure > Thiaw's chaos in knockout intensity).
• Executability: Garcia has the more executable plan in a knockout (defensive organization + clinical creators). Thiaw's plan requires Sarr to be perfect.

Step 5 output: +1pt to BEL.

Step 6 — Synthesis (show the math)

Starting from WDM anchor: BEL 40% / Draw 22% / SEN 38%

Tactical adjustments (all justified, NONE are pedigree-based so NOT subject to R32-1 cap):

Net positive deviation: +5pt to BEL (matches the R32-1 cap exactly).

Final 90' probabilities (after Step 6):

• BEL 45% / Draw 22% / SEN 33%

Reconciliation check: Sum = 45 + 22 + 33 = 100% ✓

• BEL win: 40% (WDM) → 45% (adjusted). +5 net, at R32-1 cap.
• Draw: 22% (WDM, R32-4 band) → 23% (adjusted, +1 R32 upset). Round to 22%.
• SEN: 38% (WDM) → 33% (adjusted). −5 net.

After R32-4 draw band rounding: BEL 45% / Draw 22% / SEN 33% ← final 90'.

6.6 WDM Baseline Anchor (Weighted Decision Matrix)

Computed in Step 0 above. fav_share = 0.632 (BEL), BEL baseline 40%, Draw 22%, SEN 38%. Pedigree excluded (weight 0.0). GDiff included at ×0.5 (R32-5 downgraded after retrospective). BEL is the WDM favorite but with a narrow margin that justifies the +5pt deviation cap.

7K. Knockout Prediction (90' → ET → Pens → Advance)

Knockout format. Draw at 90' is a real 22% outcome — not collapsed into "ET/PK." Decision tree per §7K.

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Sum: 100% ✓

Extra Time (conditional on 90' draw — sum to 100% given ET reached)

Penalty Shootout (conditional on pens reached — sum to 100% given pens)

Advance Probability (unconditional — show the math)

Scoreline Distribution (90' only — top 8 must sum to ~85-100%)

Sum: 100% ✓

Top 5 modal scorelines: BEL 1-0 (14%), BEL 2-1 (13%), 1-1 (12%), SEN 1-0 (11%), BEL 2-0 (9%).

Modal Match Path

"1-1 at 90' → 2-1 Belgium in ET (3%)" is a non-trivial path. But the highest-probability full path is:
"BEL 1-0 in 90' (14%)" — clean sheet win with a single goal from De Bruyne or Trossard.

The highest-probability ET-path is: "1-1 at 90' (12%) → 0-0 ET (4.2%) → BEL pens (2.3%)" — total ~2.3%.

The highest-probability SEN upset path is: "SEN 1-0 in 90' (11%)" — a Sarr moment + Diatta containment of Doku.

8. Who Scores

Belgium

Combined Belgium scorer probabilities: 25+22+18+12+10+4+4+3 = ~98% (with overlap on own-goals and multi-scorer scenarios). Adjustment: the top 5 sum to 87% — model-implicit assumption is one scorer per Belgium goal in the modal scenarios.

Senegal

Combined Senegal scorer probabilities: 30+15+12+12+8+4+4 = ~85% (top 5 = 77%).

Cross-Team Scoring Matchups

• De Bruyne vs I. Gueye shadow: KDB's primary creator role depends on escaping I. Gueye's man-marking. If shadowed, scoreline moves to lower-total.
• Sarr vs Theate-Mechele: The single most important duel of the match. Sarr's 30% scorer probability drops to ~20% if CBs neutralize; rises to ~40% if service comes.
• Lukaku sub vs SEN defensive concentration: Late-game supersub. SEN's compact 4-3-3 may tire at 70' — Lukaku can punish.

9. Match Flow Projection

10. Methodology Notes

Findings Applied

• F1 (Draw epidemic): Draw at 90' = 22%, R32-4 band. NOT under-weighted.
• F4 (Hot GK): Diaw is untested at WC level (only MD3 IRQ clean sheet, 11v10 from 13'). NO confirmed-form credit. Courtois is reputation-only (CL pedigree but no in-match WC26 hot-GK form this tournament). ×0.25 hot_gk delta applied (calibration weights from doc-1 § Empirical Calibration).
• F5 (Low block + counter upsets): NOT applicable. SEN plays open 4-3-3 attacking, not low block. No upset-bias adjustment from this finding.
• F6 (CB set-piece scoring): CB scorers included at ~4% each per finding.
• F7 (Referee tournament discount): 20-25% applied to Martínez career 4.24 → 3.2 Y/gm projection. Leniency = on-field only (VAR bypasses).
• F8 (Possession can flip): Modeled BEL ~58-62% possession, not 70%+.
• F9 (Attack gutted): Trigger NOT met for either team. BEL has De Bruyne + Trossard + Doku + Lukaku sub. SEN has Sarr + Mané + Ndiaye + Jackson.
• F10 (Star-as-creator): De Bruyne modeled as both scorer (25%) and creator. Sarr modeled as primary scorer (30%); Ndiaye as creator (15% scorer, ~30% creator). Mané modeled as creator too.
• F11 (Physical & Environmental): 0% weather penalty (20°C). Travel asymmetry APPLIED to SEN (−3 to −5pt).
• F12 (Conservation): 0% (knockout, milestone motivation).
• F13 (Substitution risk): Lukaku 60-70' cameo risk >30%.
• F14 (Manager personality): Garcia pragmatic, Thiaw aggressive. Both must-win. No conservation.
• F15 (Penalty band): 30-40% chance of ≥1 pen. NOT a verdict.
• F16 (Age-decline scorer discount): N/A — neither team's star is in the 38+ milestone-drought category (De Bruyne 34, Mané 32). Lukaku 31 still mobile.
• F17 (Sterile domination screen): Not applicable. SEN plays open shape; Belgium has the creators to break the block.
• F18 (Bench impact): Lukaku + Jackson + Mbaye bench. Lukaku = explosive (BEL chasing, 60-70'). Jackson = explosive (SEN chasing).
• F19 (Low-event late-winner archetype): Modal scoreline BEL 1-0 — single goal, possibly late (85'+). Late-arriving runners (Sarr, Doku) included.
• F20 (Favorite double-underestimate + age-decline): Opponent's midfield spine is NOT 38+ (I. Gueye 36, Mané 32). Not applicable.
• F21 (Late-goal explosion): Belgium has the deep bench (Lukaku, Saelemaekers, Lukebakio, Fernandez-Pardo). If the match is 0-0 at 70', Garcia's attacking triple-sub is a live explosion scenario. Multi-goal margins weighted (BEL 3-0 at 3%, BEL 3-1 at 5%).
• F22 (Blowout Mode A/D/E): LIMITED — SEN plays attacking 4-3-3 (open, not parking-bus). SEN does NOT trigger the deep-block exclusion (5-4-1 + veteran GK) that fired in ECU-CUR 0-0. So blowout mode is available, but BEL's slow starts limit it.

R32 Findings Applied

• R32-1 (Deviation cap): fav_share 0.632 < 0.65 → +5pt cap on positive deviation. My adjustment = +5 net (exactly at cap). NO pedigree added.
• R32-2 (Opponent-tier-weighted form): Used in WDM. SEN's 1.0 weighted PPG vs BEL's 1.67 reflects the brutal schedule (FRA + NOR losses).
• R32-3 (CONMEBOL reactive blueprint): NOT applicable. SEN is CAF, plays 4-3-3 attacking — does NOT fit the CONMEBOL reactive-block template.
• R32-4 (Draw band tiering): fav_share 0.60-0.70 → draw 20-25%. Used 22%.
• R32-5 (GDiff downgrade): Used at ×0.5, NOT ×2.0. Per retrospective.

Empirical Calibration Weights (doc-1 § Empirical Calibration)

• Hot GK ×0.25 — applied (Diaw untested, Courtois reputation-only)
• Sterile ×2.0 — N/A (no sterile-domination flag)
• Context ×2.0 — draw band ×2.0 applied (22% used)
• Momentum ×1.75 — SEN 5-0 momentum −1pt to BEL applied
• Conservation ×1.5 — N/A (0% conservation)

Sources Used (full archive: sources/matches/bel-vs-sen/)

• scout/00-scout-brief.md + 01-venue-and-weather.md + 02-base-camps-and-travel.md + 03-group-context.md + 04-managers.md + 05-h2h-and-extras.md
• lineups.md (ESPN API T-50)
• team-news-bel/01-injuries-and-disruption.md + 02-verdict.md
• team-news-sen/01-injuries-and-disruption.md + 02-verdict.md
• referee/01-said-martinez-application.md
• Canonical profiles: sources/reference/teams/bel.md + sen.md + referees/said-martinez.md + venues/seattle.md
• Methodology: backlog/docs/doc-1 + doc-5
• Squad values: experiments/squad-values.json (BEL €549M, SEN €212M)

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "bel-vs-sen"
date = "2026-07-01"
kickoff_cest = "22:00"
group = "R32"
venue = "seattle"
referee = "said-martinez"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
# KNOCKOUT: 90' outcomes (sum to 100)
favorite = "Belgium"
win = 45       # Belgium win in 90'
draw = 22      # draw at 90'
loss = 33      # Senegal win in 90'

[knockout]
# ET probabilities CONDITIONAL on draw at 90' (sum to 100 given ET reached)
# Pen probabilities CONDITIONAL on pens reached (sum to 100 given pens reached)
win_et = 40         # Belgium win in ET
draw_et = 35        # draw after ET → pens
loss_et = 25        # Senegal win in ET
pen_win = 55        # Belgium win on pens
advance_a = 58      # Belgium total advance probability
advance_b = 42      # Senegal total advance probability

[scorelines]
# Top 5 + other (sum to ~100)
"1-0" = 14      # Belgium 1-0 (modal)
"2-1" = 13      # Belgium 2-1
"1-1" = 12      # Draw
"0-1" = 11      # Senegal 1-0
"2-0" = 9       # Belgium 2-0
"1-2" = 9       # Senegal 2-1
"0-0" = 7
"3-1" = 5       # Belgium 3-1

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "De Bruyne", probability = 25 }
team_a_2 = { player = "Trossard", probability = 22 }
team_a_3 = { player = "Doku", probability = 18 }
team_a_4 = { player = "De Ketelaere", probability = 12 }
team_a_5 = { player = "Lukaku", probability = 10 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Sarr", probability = 30 }
team_b_2 = { player = "Ndiaye", probability = 15 }
team_b_3 = { player = "Mané", probability = 12 }
team_b_4 = { player = "P. Gueye", probability = 12 }
team_b_5 = { player = "Diarra", probability = 8 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0      # 0pt (knockout, no conservation)
finding_13_fires = false        # sterile-domination screen: NOT fired (SEN plays open 4-3-3)
finding_16_age_decline = ""    # No 38+ milestone-drought player in scorers list
penalty_band = "30-40%"        # Martínez career + tournament form (band, NOT verdict)
projected_xg = 1.55            # Belgium's projected xG (modest, accounting for slow starts + defensive SEN shape)

[predicted_stats]
# Predicted match stats (Belgium = team A in code = alphabetical first; SEN = team B)
favorite_possession = 60       # Belgium projected possession (BEL not Bielsa-style press; SEN disciplined)
yellow_cards = "3-4"           # Martínez tournament-lenient projection
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "30-40%"      # band, not verdict

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: scout + team-news + referee briefs archived under sources/matches/bel-vs-sen/; canonical profiles at sources/reference/. WDM anchor: fav_share 0.632, BEL 40% / Draw 22% / SEN 38% baseline; +5pt tactical adjustment (BEL home + SEN travel + SEN errors + BEL defense + Doku + SEN shape + Garcia discipline − Lukaku − Vanaken − Sarr − 5-0 momentum − R32 upset). Final: BEL 45% / Draw 22% / SEN 33% in 90'; BEL advance 58% / SEN advance 42%.

Match code: bel-vs-sen. Model: MiniMax-M3.