Argentina vs. Cape Verde - Pure Football Analysis (GLM-5 Turbo)

2026 World Cup, Round of 32 | July 4, 2026 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL

Kickoff: 00:00 CEST (18:00 EDT) | Referee: Drew Fischer (Canada)

TL;DR

Argentina's full-strength statement XI vs. Vozinha's confirmed hot-GK low block in 33°C Miami heat — ARG advance 73%, but 0-0 at 90' is a live 8% scenario.

• ARG 60% win in 90' / Draw 17% / CPV 23% — knockout draw band capped at 17% by clear quality edge (WDM fav_share 0.806), but Vozinha + heat keep CPV winnable in regulation.
• Modal scoreline: ARG 2-0 (18%) — sustained pressure breaks through after 55-65', second from set piece or bench impact.
• Messi #1 scorer ARG at 30% (age-decline discount applied — 39yo, 8-10pt haircut despite 6-goal Golden Boot form; confirmed penalty taker keeps him #1). Lautaro #2 at 22%.
• Vozinha is the swing variable — 10% probability of confirmed-form hot-GK heroics forces a draw (7 saves vs ESP, tournament breakout). If he's average, ARG wins 65%+.
• F11 HEAT APPLIES: 33°C open-air — pressing degrades after 60', favors CPV's low block. Fischer (3.32 Y/gm career → 2.5 discounted) keeps cards low; 25-30% penalty band.
• Watch: If it's 0-0 at 70' in the Miami heat, Vozinha's legs and ARG's triple-sub freshness (Álvarez, Lo Celso, Paredes) become the match.

Prediction: ARG 2-0 (18%), ARG 1-0 (16%), ARG 2-1 (12%), Draw 0-0 (8%), ARG 3-0 (7%), Draw 1-1 (6%)

1. Argentina — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #2 (world)
• Manager: Lionel Scaloni (aggressive, statement-oriented — Finding 12: does NOT conserve in knockouts)
• WC History: Defending champions (2022), 3× winners (1978, 1986, 2022). 9/9 group stage in WC26.
• Form: Won all 3 group matches (ALG 3-0, AUT 2-0, JOR 3-1). 3.0 opponent-tier-weighted PPG.
• Base Camp: Compass Minerals National Performance Center, Kansas City (Sporting KC facility). Flew to Miami Thu Jul 3 — ~1,000 mi, no disruption (routine domestic flight).
• Squad Market Value: €821M

Tactical Identity (4-3-3)

• Messi as second striker / false-9 drops deep to receive between the lines; De Paul-Enzo-Mac Allister as a pressing, ball-winning midfield 3 that wins possession in advanced areas.
• Width from overlapping fullbacks (Molina, Medina) and Almada cutting inside from the right — designed to stretch low blocks and create cut-back opportunities for Messi/Lautaro.
• Scaloni's "attack in block" philosophy (per Olé): the team presses and attacks as a unit, maintaining shape to avoid transition vulnerability — specifically drilled for this CPV low-block matchup.

Key Players

Strengths

• Generational goalscorer in Messi (6 goals in 3 matches, all-time WC record-holder)
• Elite midfield 3 (De Paul, Mac Allister, Enzo) that wins the ball high and feeds Messi in dangerous areas
• Tournament-team DNA — ARG escalate game-to-game at World Cups (rule 20)
• Full strength: Romero returns, Messi rested MD3, Dibu uninhibited (splint off)
• Deep bench: Álvarez, Lo Celso, Paredes, González, Simeone — all Tier 1-quality subs

Weaknesses

• Messi's age (39) — 8-10pt scorer discount (F16). If CPV's block holds for 60'+, Messi's mobility drops and the heat compounds it.
• No true aerial threat in the box — against Vozinha's deep block, set-piece conversion may be low. ARG's goals come from feet, not heads.
• Almada at RW is a slight surprise — less natural width than Nico González. If he drifts inside too much, ARG become narrow and predictable vs CPV's compact 4-5-1.
• History of losing to low-block counters (KSA 1-2 in 2022, SCO 0-1 in qualifying). Scaloni is aware and has drilled for this.

Predicted XI

2. Cape Verde — Team Profile

Basic Info

• FIFA Ranking: #67
• Manager: Pedro Leitão Brito "Bubista" (pragmatic, defensive-first, CAF Coach of the Year 2025)
• WC History: Debutants. AFCON 2023 quarterfinalists — continental pedigree validated.
• Form: 3 draws in group stage (ESP 0-0, URU 2-2, KSA 0-0). 1.33 opponent-tier-weighted PPG. Unbeaten in 17/18 competitive matches.
• Base Camp: Waters Sportsplex, Tampa FL (Rowdies facility). ~280 mi bus to Miami — no travel disruption.
• Squad Market Value: €15M

Tactical Identity (4-5-1 / 4-1-4-1 confirmed)

• Ultra-defensive low block: drops into a compact 4-5-1 out of possession, "wafer-thin" space between lines (The Athletic, post-MD1). Designed to absorb pressure and hit on the break via wide outlets (Cabral, Da Costa).
• Mendes as false-9: Captain deployed at F9 for work-rate, pressing, and leadership — NOT as a finisher. Natural winger (22 intl goals from wide). No natural #9 in the starting XI; Benchimol + Livramento are super-subs.
• Double pivot (Kevin Pina + Laros Duarte): Defensive screen ahead of the back four. Pina is the set-piece threat (scored CPV's first-ever WC goal vs URU). Deroy Duarte is the creative hub in the advanced midfield.
• Counter-attack: Da Costa (pace) + Cabral (trickery) on wings, Mendes drops deep to collect and launch transitions.

Key Players

Strengths

• Vozinha in confirmed hot-GK form — 10% probability of forcing a draw single-handedly (F4, ×0.55 confirmed-form weight)
• Proven low block: held ESP (Tier 1, #2 FIFA) to 0-0, drew URU (Tier 2) 2-2. The structure works.
• Set-piece threat: Pina + Mendes both deliver/draw fouls. CB set-piece scoring (F6): Diney Borges / Pico Lopes at ~5%.
• Unbeaten run (17/18 competitive matches) gives confidence. "Nothing to lose" mentality in R32.
• Deep bench of attacking options: Benchimol, Livramento, Rodrigues, Monteiro, Semedo — all available if chasing a goal.

Weaknesses

• €15M squad vs €821M — the largest quality gap in the R32 (55× squad value). Individual quality deficit is massive.
• No natural #9 in starting XI (Mendes is a winger at F9). Goalscoring mechanism is set-piece or counter — low xG projection (~0.5).
• Arcanjo OUT (hamstring) — enforced midfield change. Laros Duarte is the replacement, more defensive.
• Off-field distraction: Mendes rape allegation investigation creates mental drag (1-3%). Bubista's continued selection is a statement but polarizes the camp.
• 33°C heat in 90 minutes of chasing = exhaustion in ET. CPV's bench depth is far inferior to ARG's.

Predicted XI

3. Head-to-Head Record

Most relevant precedent: URU 2-2 CPV (MD2, same venue Hard Rock Stadium, same 6 PM slot). URU outshot CPV 25-1 but Pina FK + Varela supersub earned CPV the draw. CPV's block has held both ESP (0-0) and URU (2-2) to ≤2 goals.

ARG 2022 warning shot: ARG lost 1-2 to Saudi Arabia (low block + transition upset). Scaloni is aware and has specifically drilled for this.

4. 🌡️ Physical & Environmental Conditions (Finding 11)

Impact Analysis

F11 heat penalty: ACTIVE — STRONG. 33°C ambient + 39°C heat index at kickoff, open-air Hard Rock, no climate control. Both teams' pressing degrades after ~60'. This is the hottest WC26 knockout venue.

• ARG impact (pressing team, -3pts): De Paul's press, Mac Allister's high recovery, and Messi's off-ball movement all degrade in heat/humidity. After 60', ARG's ball-recovery in advanced areas drops, and their sustained possession becomes more sterile. Net: pressing less effective, crosses cutbacks and set pieces become relatively more important.
• CPV impact (low block, NEUTRAL to +1): CPV is already sitting deep — the heat affects them less because they're not chasing the ball. Their counter-running (Da Costa, Cabral) degrades slightly, but the block's structural integrity is heat-resistant. Net: slight benefit from heat.
• Combined effect: +2% to draw, +1% to CPV. The heat favors the defense and the underdog, but not dramatically — both teams are acclimatized to summer conditions.

Lightning suspension: 50% chance of T-storms at kickoff. If lightning is detected within 8 miles, the match pauses for 30 minutes minimum. Could disrupt rhythm, cool both teams down, or extend total match time. Flagged but not probability-weighted (too uncertain to model).

5. Referee Analysis

Referee personality: Fischer is a "let it flow" official — low whistle frequency, allows physical contests. WC26 sample confirms extreme leniency (3 yellows in 3 matches). The 20-25% tournament leniency discount is validated; Fischer may be even more lenient than the discount predicts.

Fischer-ARG history (MLS/Inter Miami): Fischer has refereed Messi's Inter Miami in MLS. Per Mundo Deportivo: Messi has been booked by Fischer before. De Paul also has Fischer history from MLS. No major controversies. Slight familiarity — Fischer won't be star-struck.

Asymmetric card expectation: CPV's tactical plan involves fouling to break ARG's rhythm in the middle third. With Fischer's low-card tendencies, CPV may get away with more tactical fouls than usual. BUT — VAR Villarreal (USA) may upgrade marginal fouls in the box. Leniency = on-field only; VAR bypasses it (validated CAN-QAT).

Prediction: 3-4 yellows total (CPV 2-3 for tactical fouls, ARG 1 most likely De Paul). Red card ~5-8% (DOGSO scenario if CPV defender beaten). Penalty chance: 25-30% band — virtually all scenarios favor ARG (pen in the box from ARG's sustained pressure), but tournament refs regress on game-deciding spot-kicks.

6. Key Tactical Battles

6.1 Messi vs. CPV's Compact 4-5-1 Block

The central battle. CPV will pack the center with 5 midfielders behind Mendes, leaving Messi ~15-20 yards of space between their lines. Messi will drop deep to receive (his false-9 role), and CPV's double pivot (Pina + Laros Duarte) must decide whether to follow him or hold position. If they follow, space opens behind for Lautaro/Almada runs. If they hold, Messi has time to pick passes. Scaloni will target the half-spaces — Messi drifts left to combine with Medina/Mac Allister, or right with Almada cutting inside.

6.2 ARG's Width vs. CPV's Defensive Shape

Almada (RW) and Medina (LB overlapping) are ARG's width providers. CPV's 4-5-1 is narrow by design — the wide channels are where ARG can stretch them. If Almada isolates Sidny Cabral 1v1 on the right, or Medina gets behind Da Costa on the overlap, the cut-backs to Messi/Lautaro become high-quality chances. This is the most likely route to the first goal.

6.3 CPV's Counter-Attack vs. ARG's Transition Defense

When CPV win the ball, Da Costa and Cabral are the outlet runners. ARG's De Paul + Enzo must recover quickly to prevent 2v2 breaks. The danger moment: a turnover in ARG's half during a sustained attack sequence (e.g., an intercepted Enzo switched ball). CPV's xG comes almost entirely from these transitions — 0.5 projected xG, but one clean counter could produce a goal.

6.4 Set Pieces — CPV's Most Likely Route to Goal

Kevin Pina's free-kick vs URU proved CPV can score from dead balls. With ARG committed forward, corners and free kicks for CPV are danger moments. Diney Borges and Pico Lopes (both CBs) are aerial threats (rule 6: CB set-piece scoring at ~5%). Messi/De Paul must avoid unnecessary fouls in dangerous areas.

6.5 Decision Graph Resolution (doc-5 — walk ALL 6 steps)

⚡ MANDATORY. Walking doc-5's 6-step decision graph independently. Every number derived from doc-1 Findings + briefs + predictions-summary.

Step 0 — Compute the WDM Anchor (§6.6):

Gather raw factors:

Sources: experiments/squad-values.json (ARG €821M, CPV €15M); FIFA rankings from scout brief; tournament results from canonical profiles; qualifying PPG estimated from CONMEBOL/CAF campaigns.

Weighted composite:

ARG score = 3.0×0.982 + 1.0×0.748 + 1.0×0.693 + 1.0×0.550 + 0.5×0.600
         = 2.946 + 0.748 + 0.693 + 0.550 + 0.300
         = 5.237
CPV score = 6.5 − 5.237 = 1.263
fav_share = 5.237 / 6.5 = 0.806

Convert to probabilities:

fav_baseline = 28 + (0.806 − 0.50) × 90 = 28 + 27.5 = 55.5 → 56%
draw_baseline = 16% (fav_share > 0.70 → R32-4: 15-18% range; +0 for one defensive + one attacking team)
CPV_baseline = 100 − 56 − 16 = 28%

WDM ANCHOR: ARG 56% / Draw 16% / CPV 28%

Step 1 — Group Context (R32 knockout):

• Match context: R32 knockout. Both teams must WIN (or advance via ET/pens). No group-stage conservation logic applies.
• R16 reward: Winner faces AUS or EGY (both Tier 3) in Atlanta R16. ARG's bracket path is favorable — no Tier 1 opponent until potential QF.
• Must-win flag: YES for both (knockout = elimination on loss).
• Urgency asymmetry: MASSIVE. ARG are defending champions with a golden generation; CPV are debutants on a fairy-tale run. ARG's urgency is championship-level; CPV's is "nothing to lose."
• Yellow card R32 suspension risk: All group-stage yellows wiped per FIFA rules. ARG players on 0 cards. CPV had 5 players on 1 yellow in group — all cleared. No card-protection incentive.
• Draw-sufficiency: NO. A draw sends both teams to ET — no one is satisfied at 90'.

Step 1 delta: No conservation delta from group context. Match is a pure knockout. +0.

Step 2 — Conservation (Finding 12):

• ARG: F12 = 0%. Three reasons: (1) Defending champion — rule 14: reduce/eliminate conservation (validated ARG-ALG: Scaloni did NOT conserve, scored at 17'). (2) Aggressive manager (Scaloni) — rule 14: aggressive managers don't conserve. (3) Knockout match — full intensity required. Confirmed by full-strength XI (no rotation from MD1/MD2 core).
• CPV: F12 = 0%. Tier 4 debutant in R32. The low block is their identity, not conservation — it's how they play. No conservation delta.
• Combined: F12 = 0%. No discount applied. The ×1.5 empirical multiplier is irrelevant (base is 0).

Step 2 delta: ±0.

Step 3 — Weather × Style (Finding 11):

• Heat at kickoff: 33°C ambient, 39°C heat index. Open-air Hard Rock. F11 STRONG.
• ARG style vulnerability: Pressing team (De Paul, Mac Allister, Enzo press high in the opponent's half). Pressing effectiveness degrades after ~60' in >28°C conditions. The heat compounds Messi's age-decline (39yo — after 60' in heat, his off-ball movement drops).
• CPV style resilience: Low block — they're already standing deep. Heat affects them less structurally, though individual players fatigue too. Their counter-running (Da Costa, Cabral) is slightly degraded.
• Threshold: 33°C is 5°C above the 28°C threshold. The F11 rule says "+5-10% to draw/underdog" for heat >28°C. I'll use the lower end (+5%) because both teams are summer-acclimatized (ARG base camp Kansas City, CPV base camp Tampa — both hot-weather locations).
• Split: +3% to draw, +2% to CPV (from ARG win% — net heat penalty on favorite).

Step 3 delta: ARG −3%, Draw +3%, CPV +0%. (Net −3 from ARG, distributed as +3 to draw; I'll absorb the +2 CPV into the draw as the heat primarily benefits the defensive outcome.)

Step 4 — Weather × Defense Stack:

• Heat + low block + hot GK = DRAW (ESP-CPV archetype).
• CPV has all three: (a) heat at 33°C (degrades ARG's pressing), (b) deep 4-5-1 low block (proven structure), (c) Vozinha confirmed hot-GK (7 saves vs ESP, MOTM).
• This is the SAME template that produced ESP 0-0 CPV. But with a critical difference: ARG is full strength (ESP benched Yamal + Williams), and Scaloni is in statement mode.
• Vozinha confirmed hot-GK probability: Base 15-20% → ×0.55 confirmed-form weight (per empirical calibration: "×0.5-0.6 for confirmed form") → 8-11% probability of GK heroics forcing a draw. I'll use 10%.
• Integration: The Vozinha scenario (10% probability) shifts ~4pts from ARG win to Draw:
  • P(Vozinha average) = 90%: ARG ~60% win rate
  • P(Vozinha heroic) = 10%: ARG ~25% win rate, Draw ~50%
  • Weighted: 0.9×60 + 0.1×25 = 56.5% ARG (3.5pt swing)

Step 4 delta: ARG −4%, Draw +4%, CPV 0%. (Modeling Vozinha as shifting probability from ARG→Draw, not to CPV — Vozinha forces a 0-0 or 1-1, not a CPV win.)

Step 5 — Temperament:

• Scaloni (ARG): Aggressive, statement-oriented. Has won WC22 and Copa América with high-intensity knockout performances. His "attack in block" philosophy is specifically designed for this type of match — breaking down a low block with width + Messi's genius. Executability: HIGH. The XI is confirmed, the plan is drilled, the motivation is maximum.
• Bubista (CPV): Pragmatic, defensive. CAF Coach of the Year 2025. His 4-5-1 low block is the team's proven identity (held ESP 0-0, drew URU 2-2). Executability: HIGH. The players believe in the system. The confirmed XI is even MORE defensive than expected (Mendes at F9, no natural #9, double pivot).
• Mendes off-field distraction: 1-3% soft drag on CPV effectiveness (rape allegation investigation, polarizing national mood). Bubista's continued selection is a statement, but the distraction is real.
• Messi milestone motivation: He's ALREADY the all-time WC top scorer (19 goals, broke Klose's 16 in MD2). The milestone chase is complete. He's now chasing the Golden Boot (6 goals, leading). Milestone motivation predicts MINUTES, not GOALS (rule 16: age-decline 39yo). He'll play 90' but scorer probability is discounted.
• Sterile domination screen (F17): Does NOT fire for ARG. Flags: (a) no finisher? NO — Messi + Lautaro are elite finishers. (b) Wrong mechanism? PARTIAL — if ARG circulates centrally vs the compact block, they'll struggle. But Scaloni drills width + cutbacks specifically for this. (c) No specialist striker in squad? NO — Lautaro + Álvarez. Screen passes: ARG's finishing mechanism is sound.

Step 5 delta: ARG +1% (Mendes distraction on CPV), ±0 otherwise.

Step 6 — Synthesis (show the math):

WDM ANCHOR:            ARG 56%  / Draw 16%  / CPV 28%
─── Step 1 (context):   ±0       ±0         ±0
─── Step 2 (F12):       ±0       ±0         ±0
─── Step 3 (F11 heat): −3%      +3%        ±0
─── Step 4 (Vozinha):  −4%      +4%        ±0
─── Step 5 (temperament):+1%      ±0        −1% (Mendes drag)

Before tournament-team deviation:

ARG: 56 − 3 − 4 + 1 = 50%
Draw: 16 + 3 + 4 = 23%
CPV: 28 + 0 + 0 − 1 = 27%

Wait — ARG at 50% is too low for a defending champion at full strength. The WDM anchor of 56% is the calibrated floor, but the tournament-team deviation is justified and necessary.

Tournament-team deviation (momentum ×1.75):
ARG is the quintessential tournament team. Defending champion. 9/9 group stage. Messi 6 goals in 3 matches. Scaloni's aggressive knockout management. Per the methodology: "Tournament-team overperformance: ARG consistently exceeds squad-value seed at WCs. If a team has proven this in the current tournament (2+ statement wins), +8-12pt from the WDM is justified." ARG has 3 statement wins. Base deviation: +8pts. Empirical momentum multiplier: ×1.75 → +14pts? No — that's the multiplier on the FINDING delta, not on the tournament-team deviation. Let me re-read.

The empirical calibration says "momentum ×1.75 — Increase momentum deltas by 75%." The tournament-team deviation IS a momentum factor. But the methodology also says "+8-12pt from the WDM is justified." The empirical multiplier should not push this beyond the justified range.

Let me apply: base +6pts tournament team → ×1.75 = +10.5pts. Rounded to +10pts. This is within the +8-12 justified range.

ARG: 50 + 10 = 60%
Draw: 23 − 5 = 18% (draw absorbs part of the deviation)
CPV: 27 − 5 = 22%

Sum: 60 + 18 + 22 = 100%. ✅

FINAL 90' PROBABILITIES:

ARG win 90': 60%
Draw 90':    18%
CPV win 90': 22%

Reconciliation check: The deviation from WDM anchor is +4pts (56→60). Within the 10pt threshold (fav_share > 0.65, cap doesn't apply). Justification: tournament-team overperformance + momentum ×1.75.

6.6 WDM Baseline Anchor Summary

ARG composite: 3.0×0.982 + 1.0×0.748 + 1.0×0.693 + 1.0×0.550 + 0.5×0.600 = 5.237
CPV composite: 6.5 − 5.237 = 1.263
fav_share = 5.237/6.5 = 0.806
ARG baseline = 28 + 0.306×90 = 55.5 → 56%
Draw = 16% (fav_share > 0.70 → 15-18%)
CPV = 28%

WDM ANCHOR: ARG 56% / Draw 16% / CPV 28% → Adjusted: ARG 60% / Draw 18% / CPV 22%

7K. Knockout Prediction

R32 knockout match. A draw at 90' is a REAL outcome. Decision tree: 90' → ET → Pens.

Draw band by fav_share (R32-4)

fav_share = 0.806 > 0.70 → draw = 15-18%. Using 18% (upper end — Vozinha + heat justify the extra 2%).

90-Minute (Regulation) Outcome

Extra Time (conditional — given draw at 90')

Penalty Shootout (conditional — given pens reached)

Advance Probability (unconditional — show the math)

Scoreline Distribution (90' only)

Modal Match Path

"ARG 2-0 at 90' — probability 18%. The single most likely outcome. ARG dominate possession (63%), create sustained pressure, and break through via Messi/Lautaro after 55-65' of Vozinha resistance. A second goal from a set piece or 70'+ sub (Álvarez) seals it. Vozinha makes 4-5 saves but can't keep out the quality."

Alternative high-frequency path: "0-0 at 90' → ARG 1-0 in ET — probability 18% × 55% × ~40% (1-0 ET split) = ~4%." Vozinha forces ET, ARG's fresh legs (triple-sub at 60-70') eventually break through in the 100-110' window.

8. Who Scores

Argentina

Substitution risks:

• Lautaro Martínez: LOW sub risk in knockout (Scaloni committed to #9 for 90')
• Messi: Near-zero (captain, milestone motivation, playing at Inter Miami = no acclimatization issue)
• Almada: MEDIUM (could be hooked for González or Simeone if ARG need defensive solidity)
• Álvarez: ~80% chance of appearing at 70-80' as a tactical sub

Cape Verde

Substitution risks for CPV:

• Nuno Da Costa: MEDIUM (likely replaced by Benchimol or Rodrigues if CPV chase)
• Laros Duarte: LOW-MEDIUM (could be replaced by Monteiro for creativity)
• Mendes at F9: LOW (captain, leadership role — stays on even if anonymous)

9. Match Flow Projection

10. Methodology Notes

Findings applied in this analysis:

• F4/F7: Hot-GK confirmed form (Vozinha ×0.55 weight). 10% heroics probability.
• F6: CB set-piece scoring (Diney, Pico Lopes at ~5%).
• F8: Possession direction ~60% confidence (ARG dominant).
• F11: Heat penalty ACTIVE (33°C, open-air). Pressing degrades after 60'.
• F12: Conservation = 0% (defending champion + aggressive manager + knockout).
• F13/F17: Sterile domination screen — does NOT fire for ARG (finishers present, width drilled).
• F14: No conservation × heat compound (F12 = 0%, so no combined penalty).
• F16: Age-decline scorer discount for Messi (39yo, −8-10pts). Milestone motivation → minutes, not goals.
• F19: Low-event late-winner archetype — included deep runner at 3%.
• F20: Tournament-team overperformance — ARG +10pts from WDM (momentum ×1.75).
• F21: Late-goal explosion via bench — ARG's deep bench (Álvarez, Lo Celso, Paredes) vs tiring CPV block in heat.
• F22: Blowout exclusion PARTIAL — CPV = 4-5-1 deep block + Vozinha veteran GK (93+ caps). 4+ goal margins reduced to 5-8% weight (from 15-20%).
• R32-3: CONMEBOL reactive blueprint does NOT apply (CPV is CAF, not CONMEBOL — but the archetype is similar: low block + hot GK + counter pace).
• R32-4: Draw band by fav_share: fav_share 0.806 > 0.70 → draw = 15-18%.
• Empirical calibration weights: Momentum ×1.75 (tournament-team delta), hot-GK ×0.55 (confirmed form), sterile ×2.0 (screen fired but result was "no sterile" — N/A here), context ×2.0 (knockout format).

11. Metrics

[match]
code = "arg-vs-cpv"
date = "2026-07-04"
kickoff_cest = "00:00"
group = "R32"
venue = "miami"
referee = "fischer"
is_knockout = true

[win_probability]
favorite = "Argentina"
win = 60
draw = 18
loss = 22

[knockout]
win_et = 55
draw_et = 35
loss_et = 10
pen_win = 62
advance_a = 74
advance_b = 26

[scorelines]
"2-0" = 18
"1-0" = 16
"2-1" = 12
"0-0" = 8
"3-0" = 7
"1-1" = 6
"3-1" = 5

[who_scores]
team_a_1 = { player = "Messi", probability = 30 }
team_b_1 = { player = "Mendes", probability = 8 }

[calibration]
conservation_discount = 0
finding_13_fires = false
finding_16_age_decline = "Messi (39yo, -8-10pts from raw ~40%)"
penalty_band = "25-30%"
projected_xg = 2.2

[predicted_stats]
favorite_possession = 63
yellow_cards = "3-4"
red_cards = 0
penalty_chance = "25-30%"

Pre-match analysis. No betting odds used. Sources: scout brief, confirmed lineups (lineups.md), injury reports (team-news-arg/ + team-news-cpv/), referee application (referee/01-fischer-application.md), canonical team profiles (arg.md, cpv.md), venue profile (miami.md), referee canonical (fischer.md), squad values (experiments/squad-values.json), predictions-summary.md. Source archive: sources/matches/arg-vs-cpv/