Algeria vs. Jordan - Post-Event Review

2026 World Cup, Group J MD2 | June 22/23, 2026 | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara (OPEN-AIR, mild 17-19°C night)

⚠️ ELIMINATION MATCH | Predicted vs. Actual | Calibration: ~88%

TL;DR

Result: Jordan 1-2 Algeria (HT 1-0 JOR; Al-Rashdan 36', Benbouali 69', Gouiri 82'). EXACT MODAL SCORELINE HIT (consensus ALG 2-1, g4 20%/g5 18%). Algeria's first WC win since 2014 (12-year gap). Jordan knocked out (debutants, 0pts). Mahrez ASSISTED the equalizer (set-piece corner, as predicted "fresh, set-piece, captain"). Benbouali = SUB SCORER (Finding 19). Gouiri (alt #1) scored the winner. Finding 17 (sterile-domination) partially fired at HT then resolved by aggressive subs. Amoura OUT correctly NOT gutting (Finding 4a didn't fire). Vinčič exactly 2Y (leniency validated). Set-piece dominance (10 corners vs 1, both goals from corners).

• Winner: ✅✅ Algeria (consensus 59%). Comeback validated.
• Scoreline: ✅✅✅ 2-1 EXACT MODAL (g4 20%, g5 18%). Best scoreline hit of the tournament.
• Who Scores: ⚠️ Mahrez #1 (~19%) partial — assisted (set-piece), didn't score. ✅ Gouiri (alt #1, ~15%) scored winner. ❌ Tamari (JOR #1, ~15%) — 0G, 0A, subbed 83'.
• Finding 4a: ✅ correctly did NOT fire — Amoura single absence = -4pt, not 25-30pt gutting.
• Finding 17 (sterile-domination): ⚠️ partial fire then resolved — ALG had 0.65 xG at HT (no Amoura pace) → HT double sub (Bentaleb + Benbouali) unlocked it (1.25 xG 2nd half).
• Finding 19 (sub scorer): ✅✅ STRONGLY validated — Benbouali (sub 45') scored 69'.
• Finding 12: ✅ 0% conservation — both full-throttle, aggressive HT subs.
• Vinčič: ✅ 2Y exactly (predicted 2-3Y band), 0 pens (8-12% band).

1-5. Summary

• Set-piece dominance decided it — 10 corners vs 1, BOTH ALG goals from corners (Mahrez delivery). xG set play 1.05 > open play 0.85.
• Algeria's first WC win since 2014 — 12-year drought broken.
• Jordan eliminated (debutants, 0pts) — but Al-Rashdan scored their first lead of the tournament.
• HT double sub transformed the match — Petković brought on Bentaleb + Benbouali, both decisive. Benbouali scored, Bentaleb orchestrated.
• Mahrez played 75' (within predicted sub window). Assisted, didn't score.

6. Match Stats (FINAL)

7. Key Learnings

1. EXACT MODAL SCORELINE — ALG 2-1 was the consensus modal (g4 20%, g5 18%). The elimination-match + Tier 2 vs Tier 3 + single-absence framework produced the right number. Strongest scoreline hit alongside ARG-AUT 2-0 (rapid).
2. Finding 17 (sterile-domination) fires then resolves via subs — NEW NUANCE. Without Amoura's pace, ALG had 0.65 xG at HT (low output despite 72% poss). HT double sub (Bentaleb+Benbouali) unlocked it → 1.25 xG 2nd half, 2 goals. Managerial intervention can resolve Finding 17 mid-match.
3. Finding 19 (sub scorer) strongly validated — Benbouali (HT sub) scored the equalizer. The "fresh legs vs tiring defense" rule is now one of the most reliable scorer signals.
4. Set-piece as equalizer mechanism — when open play is sterile (Finding 17), set-pieces unlock low blocks. 10 corners vs 1. Mahrez delivery × Benbouali header. Calibrate: set-piece-heavy teams (Mahrez-tier delivery) can overcome Finding 17.
5. Mahrez "assist not goal" is partial validation — the #1 pick got the set-piece delivery right but didn't score. The pick was directionally correct (set-piece threat materialized) but the specific scorer was wrong.
6. Vinčič leniency exactly as predicted — 2Y in the 2-3Y band. 0 pens in the 8-12% band. The WC BRA-MAR "whistle-swallowed" calibration is now 2x validated.

8. Group J after MD2

⚠️ AUT-ALG MD3 (Jun 26) decides 2nd place. ARG already qualified.

Post-event for TASK-96. Category 0 PASSED: JOR 1-2 ALG from 6+ sources. Sources: sources/matches/alg-vs-jor/post-event/ (6 files). FINAL stats only.